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Neither the Rational Expectations Hypothesis nor behavioral finance approaches alone provides an adequate predictor of investor behavior, argues Roman Frydman

The firehose of affluent consumption continues to drive inflation, not the stimulus package

What exactly is an exchange rate?

A more realistic version of how people “maximize utility”

A showdown has taken place within Italy’s governing coalition.

The shortage of liquidity in the interbank market in China has sparked off a fear of “monetary famine.” This seems rather odd when the national savings rate is 50 per cent of GDP

On the occasion of the ASSA 2021 Virtual Annual Meeting (Jan. 3-5), Peter Bofinger presents a “10 Best of” Mankiw list

A little-understood rule in the tax code is making headlines. What’s all the fuss?

This research project examines the role of political and social unrest by analyzing their effects on bond and stock markets over the period 1900-2000.

This research project formulates a normative theory of learning both preferences and probabilities that explains a broad spectrum of economic behavior heretofore judged irrational.

The discussants will illuminate the findings and wisdom in Montek S. Ahluwalia’s book BackStage: The Story Behind India’s High Growth Years (2019) and then explore the challenges for the developing world and Asian geopolitics.

The SPD, the Social Democratic Party of Germany, has been collapsing in the popularity polls ever since they in 2003 launched the reform Agenda. What would have come of the party if it had not been for this insane rush to reform? Possibly Gerhard Schroeder could even still be chancellor today. A case for the time machine.

The latest austerity deal is terrible for Greece and Europe.

Places hit hardest by austerity cuts were more likely to vote for UKIP and Leave

Will public deficit reduction encourage private sector growth, or undermine a needed stimulus to recovery & lead to Japan-style stagnation?

The shift toward applied economics in the last 40 years is usually associated with the development of computers and datasets. Yet, the success of computer-based approaches is highly selective, and what computerization failed to change in economics is equally remarkable.

France, like many Western European countries, has strong campaign finance laws and a vibrant multiparty system. Yet even there, money has had a corrosive effect on democracy, as private donations have an outsized impact on electoral outcomes.

Policy hype but vintage fiscal economics from Godley, Lerner, and Keynes

A new paper by Nancy Folbre offers an evidence-based refutation of ‘just-world’ assumptions

Renewed attention on America’s stark and growing racial wealth divide requires critical thinking on policy remedies

How can we better integrate history into economic analysis?

Mark Thoma has picked up on a significant aspect of this year’s INET annual conference

The Globe and Mail published a long piece about the dismal science, covering a lot of ground from moral philosophy to rational expectations, from Adam Smith to this year’s Nobel laureate Thomas Sargent, from the Post-Autistic Economics movement to the Institute for New Economic Thinking. Excerpts:

What is the relationship between debt and growth rates?

Watch INET at the Trento Economics Festival online

The YSI Economic History Working Group invites scholars to submit their research on alternative perspectives and different approaches to the study of economic history. The workshop will take place on 29 July, 2018, in Boston, Massachusetts, preceding the World Economic History Congress (29 July  - 3 August).

What if innovation is not an unalloyed good for society? What if it simply adds to our current dystopian dysfunction?

Bill Black knows banks.

The epidemic extension of working hours and difficulty in maintaining work-life balance raises the question of the point of income and leisure satisfaction.

This is almost certainly the highest level of relative, and certainly absolute, global inequality at any point in human history. Is there anything we can do to reverse or mitigate this trend?

So how far have we come since Lehman? How much more do we have to do?

This research project will study the long-run interactions between transport infrastructure and economic development using spatially-disaggregated data for England and Wales over the period c.1817—2011. It will look to inform policy toward large investments in physical infrastructures.

Scientists have been sounding the alarm for decades about the severe global impact that rising temperatures will have on the environment, economies, health outcomes, and ultimately humanity’s long-term survival. Yet little has been done.

Formerly incarcerated Black people emerge from prison with far less education and social skills than white ex-cons. And they have great trouble forming families or earning a good living.

“Best of Mankiw: Errors and Tangles in the World’s Best-Selling Economics Textbooks Peter Bofinger, former member of the German Council of Economic Experts [Naked Capitalism January 4, 2021] Mankiw has been lambasted a number of times by Adbusters, the Canadian group which originated the call for mass protests that became Occupy Wall Street. Also see Toxic Textbooks: “Mankiw’s textbook seems an ideal place to look for clues as to how both the economics profession and the public which it educates became so ignorant, misinformed and unobservant of how economies work in the real world.” The problem with the leadership of the Democratic Party at the state and national levels is not the caricature of maliciousness that the Trumpists believe, and which the Republicans have used to “feed red meat to their base,” but merely that the leadership has been taught, and believes and swills, the snake oil Mankiw peddles. Below, just a small sample of Bofinger’s detailed take-down of Mankiw.” — NB Books Community, Daily Kos

The objective of this proposal is to build distributional statistics of income and wealth consistent with national accounts aggregates for the United States.

This research project brings together ideas from the literature on robustness in macroeconomics, network theory, and evolutionary game theory to study the way in which perceptions of safe asset status evolve among financial market participants.

Deficit Fantasies in the Great Recession

Steven Herrmann, Jungian psychoanalyst and author of the books, William James and C. G. Jung and of William Everson: The Shaman’s Call, among others, engages in a wide-ranging conversation about finding one’s calling, the poet William Everson, and the importance of dreams.

On the passing away of Edward J. Kane

You have the power to reframe and reimagine the 21st century.

Donald Trump, democracy, and how the wealthy crush the American Dream

This research project develops a comprehensive research agenda to formulate proposals that will help make the financial sector sustainable and facilitate a transition to sustainable economic development.

This research project enhances our understanding of how endowments and subsequent opportunities and shocks explain the evolution of individual and family well-being across generations.

What is the role of Germany in Europe?

How much of modern economics is shaped by religion?

“In their December 2017 paper, “Artificial intelligence, worker-replacing technological progress and income distribution,” the economists Anton Korinek, of the University of Virginia, and Joseph E. Stiglitz, of Columbia — describe the potential of artificial intelligence to create a high-tech dystopian future. Korinek and Stiglitz argue that without radical reform of tax and redistribution politics, a “Malthusian destiny” of widespread technological unemployment and poverty may ensue.” — Thomas B. Edsall, New York Times

James Boyce, Senior fellow at the Political Economy Research Institute, talks about the many benefits that carbon dividends and carbon pricing would have for a transition towards a greener and more equitable economy

John Kay, economist at Oxford University, and Mervyn King of the London School of Economics, discuss their recently published book, Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers

Without law and legal institutions, financial markets won’t work. That’s what economists discovered about 15 years ago, when former socialist countries turned towards capitalism.

This research project explores whether the financialization of the US economy has contributed to rising income inequality through complementary analyses at the individual, firm and industry levels.

The effect of monetary policy on the functional distribution of income

White House contenders ignore root causes threatening the program, potentially worsened by cuts. Is it due to reliance on wealthy donors?

Innovation, the commercialization of invention, is both desirable and necessary for growth and higher living standards in modern economies. Innovation’s contribution to the economy is being measured increasingly more precisely, and its contribution has been assessed aseconomically important and growing.

A Novel Account of Inflation Forecasts

It is not just all about banking system liquidity

Legal scholar Dina Srinivasan talks to INET’s Lynn Parramore about restoring fairness to a regulatory Wild West.

A four percent growth goal for first term of the next president is not only possible, but is what we should strive to achieve.

The tail risks that may be generated by Mario Draghi’s monetary policy innovations in the Eurozone include even more intense versions of Andrew Haldane’s “Doom Loops”

A survey on behalf of the Sueddeutsche Zeitung indicates that German economists are much more American in their thinking than is presumed – with a rising trend.

Any use of money-financed fiscal expansion as a policy tool will require rules to ensure discipline and avoid excess

No, it’s not bureaucracy that is to blame - It’s the EU that has a problem, because urged by Germany it has pushed a kind of naive globalization, the outgrowths of which contribute to the upswing of dim-witted populists. Not only in the EU. Time for a new paradigm.

Is China is “too big to fail.”?

A change in macroeconomic policies will not be sufficient to set Argentina on a path of inclusive and sustained economic development. But, as last month’s currency scare showed, abandoning the approach adopted by President Mauricio Macri’s administration at the end of 2015 is a necessary step.

“You can’t get out of debt by adding more debt.”

What challenges will China have to surmount in order to make its currency a true international currency?

This memo outlines key concepts and the methodological approach involved in a recently funded Institute for New Economic Thinking project. Our aim is to pinpoint the relationship between the reception of academic ideas, traced by citation networks with qualitative coding, and positions of institutional and political power.

Ben Bernanke, Douglas Diamond, and Philip Dybvig were honored for their work on financial instability

So, how hard is it to write the history of exceptional figures? Shall we buy film cameras?

The YSI Financial Stability Working Group will explore the changing nature of banking regulation. The series will look into the history of the Basel regulations, how they are conceived, and the challenges that are posed in their implementation.

A minimum wage is a small minnow in an ocean of deficient aggregate demand

Learning How to Swap

Does the technology revolution require a new social policy?

Growing consolidation in localized hospital markets appears to restrict nurse wage growth

Journal rankings are a rigged game. The blacklist of history of economic thought journals isn’t a fluke nor a conspiracy—it exposes how citation rankings really work

We show how every stock-flow consistent model of the macroeconomy can be represented as a directed acyclic graph.

Recent weeks have surfaced an intense exchange of top-level finger pointing, both between Congress and the leadership of the Federal Reserve System, between Fed officials and executives in the private sector and within the Fed between the Board of Governors and the New York Reserve Bank.

Expert warns that it could be a race against the clock as the fast-spreading B117 variant picks up steam in the U.S.

The following text was sent to us by Roger Backhouse and Bradley Bateman, we reproduce it in its entirety.

Can the renminbi displace the dollar as the world’s international money?

How to explain the current recession facing the US and the world? Does so-called “austerian” logic provide the solution? Or is it doing more harm than good?

Our welfare depends not only on our actual consumption, but also on alternate choices wedid not make.

Last weekend, I was in Tübingen - very close to my home town: the same smell, the same surreal Swabian idyll that makes you think of Hölderlin and Hesse rather than DSGE.

In a recent interview at the INET offices in New York, Anwar Shaikh provided a background to the work and his life in this quest.

Jan Kregel on the Continuing Risk of Derivatives

With the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, a crisis in part driven by derivatives on subprime mortgages, a seemingly obscure sector of the financial market help fuel the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression.

Two FT pieces by Tracy Alloway caught my eye this week: this article from Tuesday’s print edition, and this post on Alphaville today.

Current tests for mergers are in practice deeply flawed.

“There is a lot to like about with this infrastructure plan from what we already know and there seems to be a historical opportunity to get things right. Before answering your question, let me bring us to three trends just for context. Firstly, for decades we’ve had an economic model that benefited a small number of people tremendously and left behind the majority of Americans, resulting in widening inequality and decline in the middle class. The fact that a zip code could predict a lot of things; your health outcome, your lifespan, your success in life is an extremely telling example. Secondly, we’ve had the digital revolution which spanned a good part of the last 15 years that further demonstrated a lot of displacing and polarizing tendencies. If you’re in the wrong parts of the economy so to speak, it really didn’t work that much for you. Thirdly of course, we had the Covid crisis which turbocharged a lot of these trends. A lot of this is to say that sure there’s a lot of roads and bridges to fix and as well as fiscal infrastructure, but how to productively engage more Americans in the economic process through like you said job training and education, through better child care, invest in green recovery, and climate resilience these are paramount tasks.” — Jack Gao, Institute for New Economic Thinking

INET grantee JW Mason has been engaged in an important debate with the Financial Times’ Matthew Klein over the relationship of household debt to income inequality

Paying tribute to one of the world’s most distinguished economic historians.

This research project creates a systematic and publically available database of macroeconomic and structural conditions in all IMF loan agreements signed after 1987.

What can be done to repair economics so economists can play a productive role in helping society?

Is raising required bank capital the answer?

what role central bankers should play to bring the needed change>