Imperfect Knowledge
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Why We Need the Knightian Uncertainty Hypothesis
Mar 4, 2019
INET’s President introduces a new research program that challenges orthodox assumptions about the limits of economic knowledge
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Working Paper Series
The Knightian Uncertainty Hypothesis: Unforeseeable Change and Muth’s Consistency Constraint in Modeling Aggregate Outcomes
Mar 2019
This paper introduces the Knightian Uncertainty Hypothesis (KUH), a new approach to macroeconomics and finance theory.
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How Imperfect Knowledge Shapes Financial Markets
Feb 15, 2019
Asset markets are indispensable in harnessing society’s diverse views and insights about future business performance. But those views are shaped as much by emotion and crowd mentality as by rational expectations.
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Working Paper Series
New Evidence on the Portfolio Balance Approach to Currency Returns
Feb 2019
Asset markets are indispensable in harnessing society’s diverse views and insights about future business performance. But those views are shaped as much by emotion and crowd mentality as by rational expectations.
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INET Research in a Stressful Year
Feb 23, 2018
In the face of laissez-faire capitalism at home and resurgent nationalism across the globe, INET offers an innovative look at the causes of—and solutions for—the problems that ail a fissuring world economy.
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World Economic Roundtable
DiscussionExplaining a Decade of Stagnation: Where Do We Go From Here?
Dec 14, 2017
The World Economic Roundtable seeks to help the business, investment, and policy communities understand ongoing changes in the world economy and to promote a discussion of ideas that can advance the goal of a widely shared global prosperity.
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Conference paper
Imperfect Knowledge, Unpredictability and the Failures of Modern Macroeconomics
Oct 2017
After re-iterating five well-known theorems about the properties of conditional expectations in stationary settings—such as providing unbiased minimum mean square error predictions despite in- complete information, and the law of iterated expectations—we clarify unpredictability and illustrate its prevalence empirically.
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Conference paper
From the Prevailing Paradigm to the Qualitative Expectations Hypothesis
Oct 2017
In the paper that we present this afternoon, Soren Johansen, Anders Rahbek, Morten Tabor, and I introduce the Qualitative Expectations Hypothesis (QEH) as a new approach to modeling macroeconomic and financial outcomes.
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New Developments in the Economics of Imperfect Knowledge
Oct 22, 2017 | 03:30
How we can create useful economic theory that recognizes that the future is radically uncertain?
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The Four Horsemen of the Econopocalypse
Jul 26, 2017
If standard economic theory can’t explain a traffic jam, how can it cope with crises?
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Working Paper Series
The Qualitative Expectations Hypothesis
Jun 2017
Model Ambiguity, Consistent Representations of Market Forecasts, and Sentiment
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Against False Arrogance of Economic Knowledge
Apr 17, 2017
“The humility to accept that economic propositions cannot be universal would save us from self-defeating arrogance.” Economist Amit Bhaduri adds his perspective to our Experts on Trial discussion.
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Ferguson: Monetary Policy Can't Levitate a Broken Economy
Jan 9, 2017
As part of an International Economy symposium, INET Research Director Tom Ferguson assessed the challenge facing central bankers through the lens of the missing virtues of Dorothy’s travel companions in the Wizard of Oz
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INET Research in a Year of Living Dangerously
Dec 29, 2016
Notes from the Institute’s Director of Research on some significant papers and contributions produced in 2016 under the INET rubric
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Contemplating the Age of Hyper-Uncertainty
Dec 19, 2016
In the 40th anniversary year of John Kenneth Galbraith’s Age of Uncertainty, the 1970s look remarkably stable in comparison with today’s turbulent world