I am a PhD Candidate and Lecturer at the University of New Hampshire, and have previously studied and taught at the University of Copenhagen. I was also a member of the 2012 INET Young Scholar Initiative. My PhD Thesis uses survey data on traders’ actual exchange rate forecasts to better understand their expectations and risk behavior. I compare the traditional models of risk based on volatility with a new Imperfect Knowledge Economics (IKE) model which instead connects risk to the departure of prices from benchmark values (such as Purchasing Power Parity). I find robust support for the IKE model in a Cointegrated VAR analysis. I am also able to detect an effect of volatility, but only once controlling for this effect of how far the exchange rate has moved away from PPP. This suggests that the difficulty in the literature to find an effect of volatility on the premium was in part an omitted variable bias. I have also conducted research for the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston on the effects of environmental policies on clean-technology patenting and employment.
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Behavioral finance views stock-market investors’ expectations as largely unrelated to fundamental factors. Relying on survey data, this paper presents econometric evidence that fundamentals are a major driver of investors’ expectations.
A core puzzle in Önancial economics is the inability of standard risk-premium models to account for excess returns in currency and other asset markets.