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Nicholas Mangee

I am currently an assistant professor of economics at Armstrong State University in Savannah, Georgia and a research associate for the Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET) program on Imperfect Knowledge Economics (IKE). My research focuses on testing the implications of macro-finance models based on IKE by investigating the relative roles and dynamics between market fundamentals, psychology, and social context in explaining price fluctuations in equity markets. I earned my doctoral degree at the University of New Hampshire. Research from my dissertation has received attention from financial press outlets such as The Economist and Bloomberg News and has been featured prominently in the book Beyond Mechanical Markets: Asset Price Swings, Risk, and the Role of the State - a finalist for the Paul Samuelson Prize. I also write a column on current economic and financial events for the Savannah Morning News city paper. As an educator at the university level, I incorporate my formal training and research on the pedagogy of economics into my macro and finance courses. Please look around this site to learn more about my research and teaching interests.

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New Evidence for the Present-Value Model of Stock Prices: Why the REH Version Failed Empirically

Paper Working Paper Series | | Feb 2015

Shiller (1981) and others have shown that the quantitative predictions of the REH present-value model are inconsistent with time-series data on stock prices and dividends. In this paper, we assess the empirical relevance of the model without explicitly representing how a rational market participant forecasts dividends and interest rates.

Rationality in the Present-Value Model of Stock Prices: Fundamentals, Psychology, and Structural Change

Paper Conference paper | | Apr 2013

The present-value model of stock prices is a workhorse in financial economics. The model relates today’s price of a stock (or a basket of stocks) to the market’s forecasts of next-period’s price and dividend, appropriately discounted.