David F. Hendry, Kt, is Professor of Economics and Fellow of Nuffield College, University of Oxford: previously Professor of Econometrics, London School of Economics. He was Knighted in 2009; is an Honorary Vice-President and past President Royal Economic Society; Fellow, British Academy, Royal Society of Edinburgh, and Econometric Society; Foreign HonoraryMember, American Economic Association and American Academy of Arts and Sciences. He has seven Honorary Doctorates, and the Guy Medal in Bronze by the Royal Statistical Society. He is listed by the ISI as one of the world’s 200 most cited economists, and has published more than 180 papers, and 14 books on econometric methods, theory, modelling, and history; numerical techniques; computing; empirical economics; and forecasting.
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After re-iterating five well-known theorems about the properties of conditional expectations in stationary settings—such as providing unbiased minimum mean square error predictions despite in- complete information, and the law of iterated expectations—we clarify unpredictability and illustrate its prevalence empirically.
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INET gathered hundreds of new economic thinkers in Edinburgh to discuss the past, present, and future of the economics profession.
A major shift is needed in the Econometrics curriculum for both graduate and undergraduate teaching to include modern topics.