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A minimum wage is a small minnow in an ocean of deficient aggregate demand

Learning How to Swap

Does the technology revolution require a new social policy?

Growing consolidation in localized hospital markets appears to restrict nurse wage growth

We show how every stock-flow consistent model of the macroeconomy can be represented as a directed acyclic graph.

Recent weeks have surfaced an intense exchange of top-level finger pointing, both between Congress and the leadership of the Federal Reserve System, between Fed officials and executives in the private sector and within the Fed between the Board of Governors and the New York Reserve Bank.

Expert warns that it could be a race against the clock as the fast-spreading B117 variant picks up steam in the U.S.

In the 40th anniversary year of John Kenneth Galbraith’s Age of Uncertainty, the 1970s look remarkably stable in comparison with today’s turbulent world 

The following text was sent to us by Roger Backhouse and Bradley Bateman, we reproduce it in its entirety.

Can the renminbi displace the dollar as the world’s international money?

How to explain the current recession facing the US and the world? Does so-called “austerian” logic provide the solution? Or is it doing more harm than good?

Our welfare depends not only on our actual consumption, but also on alternate choices wedid not make.

Last weekend, I was in Tübingen - very close to my home town: the same smell, the same surreal Swabian idyll that makes you think of Hölderlin and Hesse rather than DSGE.

A new method developed by INET grantees to estimate country-level citation clubs and self-citations is making waves, with implications far beyond the paper’s initial focus.

In a recent interview at the INET offices in New York, Anwar Shaikh provided a background to the work and his life in this quest.

Jan Kregel on the Continuing Risk of Derivatives

With the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, a crisis in part driven by derivatives on subprime mortgages, a seemingly obscure sector of the financial market help fuel the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression.

Two FT pieces by Tracy Alloway caught my eye this week: this article from Tuesday’s print edition, and this post on Alphaville today.

Current tests for mergers are in practice deeply flawed.

“There is a lot to like about with this infrastructure plan from what we already know and there seems to be a historical opportunity to get things right. Before answering your question, let me bring us to three trends just for context. Firstly, for decades we’ve had an economic model that benefited a small number of people tremendously and left behind the majority of Americans, resulting in widening inequality and decline in the middle class. The fact that a zip code could predict a lot of things; your health outcome, your lifespan, your success in life is an extremely telling example. Secondly, we’ve had the digital revolution which spanned a good part of the last 15 years that further demonstrated a lot of displacing and polarizing tendencies. If you’re in the wrong parts of the economy so to speak, it really didn’t work that much for you. Thirdly of course, we had the Covid crisis which turbocharged a lot of these trends. A lot of this is to say that sure there’s a lot of roads and bridges to fix and as well as fiscal infrastructure, but how to productively engage more Americans in the economic process through like you said job training and education, through better child care, invest in green recovery, and climate resilience these are paramount tasks.” — Jack Gao, Institute for New Economic Thinking

INET grantee JW Mason has been engaged in an important debate with the Financial Times’ Matthew Klein over the relationship of household debt to income inequality

Paying tribute to one of the world’s most distinguished economic historians.

This research project creates a systematic and publically available database of macroeconomic and structural conditions in all IMF loan agreements signed after 1987.

What can be done to repair economics so economists can play a productive role in helping society?

Is raising required bank capital the answer?

what role central bankers should play to bring the needed change>

Sen. Tammy Baldwin features arguments in questions to SEC nominees, pharmaceutical industry witness

Rob Johnson kicks off INET’s “Reawakening” conference with his take on how economists can win back the trust of a world that has rejected experts

Climate change policy is caught in a stalemate between those who fear the environmental consequences of not doing enough and those who fear the economic consequences of overreacting. But controversy over the extent and sources of climate change need not stand in the way of a positive economic policy response.

This research project focuses mainly on whether the wealth of the United States middle class recovered and whether wealth inequality continued to rise or moderated over the years 2010 to 2013 following the financial crisis of 2008.

Yesterday, I had my first introductory economics seminar with my new students.

This paper analyzes the early stages of the formation of the Common Market.

In modern economies, individuals and companies engage in innovative activities, discovering new ways to use existing physical and human capital, and new technologies in which to invest. The institutional and broader social context within which these activities take place also changes in novel ways.

Antitrust econometrics relies on often-implausible assumptions

How representation of data can contribute to, or dispel the false certainty of statistical and econometric technique.

Challenges And Emerging Perspectives

It’s no secret that wealth inequality has grown, both in the US and abroad over the past several decades. What has been particularly notable about the work of Emmanuel Saez is the quantification of that inequality.

This course aims to introduce graduate students to the “standard” basic methods and topics of microeconomics as taught at the Ph.D. level, while providing a very different teaching approach than is prevalent in introductory doctoral-level microeconomics courses. Typically, much effort is focused on mastering a large technical apparatus consisting of axioms, theorems, propositions, and corresponding proofs, often leaving students longing for an informed and critical understanding of the deeper significance of the methods and results.

Economists have gone to great lengths to write humans out of economics, pushing self-interest and generally providing two choices—faith in markets or the state.

Anyone watching the stock market has seen this: a post hits Twitter containing old news, and investors react as if it were new.

Strong enforcement of property rights is good for economic growth, says the conventional wisdom. The link may not be as clear cut, says Suresh Naidu

The recently observed surge in wealth doesn’t equate to growth of productive capital. Joseph E. Stiglitz, Branko Milanovic, Paul Krugman and Duncan Foley discuss these issues and more.

Pari passu clauses were deliberately crafted to gain an upper hand in sovereign bankruptcy disputes brought to the London stock exchange’s jurisdiction

In 1953, Oskar Morgenstern proposed to reform the eligibility criterion for fellows of the Econometric Society, in an attempt to foster empirical work.

Climate change is already here, and we are on a path towards catastrophic global warming. Governments have failed to curb carbon emissions, and fossil fuel production continues to increase. This is not merely a political failure; it is also a failure of economic analysis.

Research by INET grantees Atkinson, Casarico and Voitchovsky shows that women are starkly underrepresented in top earning brackets across a range of different countries

Remarks by IMF managing director Christine Lagarde remind us why gender remains a major research and policy focus for the Fund — and for the Institute for New Economic Thinking

Has the Dodd-Frank Act had its intended effect?

YSI Philosophy of Economics working group is organising a workshop preceding the INEM conference.

Axiomatic bargaining is presented in MWG in the context of welfare economics (Ch. 22), the aim being the formulation of reasonable criteria for dividing gains resulting from cooperative endeavors (the “joint surplus”). It is further presented as an application of cooperative game theory, in which an arbitrator distributes the joint surplus in a manner that reflects “fairly” the bargaining strength of the different agents (although we could conceive of a situation where the parties are bargaining without an external party). If bargaining fails, the outcome is the parties’ own fallback positions (the threat point, or status quo).

“Governments propose, markets dispose,” as Charles Kindleberger liked to say.

In this “New Economic Thinking” interview, EBRD Chief Economist and Special Adviser to the President Erik Berglof, who also is a member of the Institute for New Economic Thinking’s Governing Board, discusses the report’s findings with Institute President Rob Johnson.

Together with Azim Premji University (APU), we’re creating opportunities for advanced PHDs, leading academics and experts to focus on the urgent problems facing the world’s most populous democracy.

There are a lot of universities represented here, but who are the most likely candidates for participation and who might one expect INET to be interested in?

Yanis Varoufakis and Joseph Stiglitz discuss Greece’s financial challenges and the associated Eurozone politics in this exclusive conversation.

A structural transformation is investing labour in Europe, accelerated by the crisis started in 2008. Job destruction is dominating employment trends in most EU countries and deep changes are taking place in labour relations, labour market institutions and wage regimes.

There is widespread and growing concern about the availability of good jobs in the U.S. economy. Inequality has been growing for thirty years and is now at levels not seen since the 1920s. Stable and remunerative employment has become harder for U.S. workers to find.

The concentration of innovation in a handful of urban centers engenders large and persistent regional disparities in economic opportunity.

In persisting with its high rates policy, the Fed is acting like James Dean in the famous “chicken run” auto race in Rebel Without a Cause.

For women discussing economics, it’s still easier to be seen than heard

Economists and historians of economics have related differently over time, and the past of the discipline has then served for varied purposes.

Last June at a History of Social Science workshop , David Engerman presented a paper on the Harvard’s Refugee Interview Project (1950-1954).

The economist reflects back on the racial justice leader who showed him the limits of his academic training.

Institute for New Economic Thinking-backed research into inequality explores how taxes and government policy have contributed to deepening economic inequality   

Eric Beinhocker and Tony Dolphin argue that lasting reform to the financial sector will not be achieved without tackling the price rigging and anti-competitive behaviour that is rife in the industry.

Last Friday, philosophers from the University of Leiden hosted the symposium ‘Between Science and History,’ in an attempt to figure out what the differences are between practicing scientists’ use of history and historians use of history.

In a recent piece in the Financial Times, George Soros makes the case that, to avoid a bleak future for the euro and the European Union in general, Europe should take steps to recapitalize banks before bailing out member states. In the piece, Soros discusses issues that INET is very interested in exploring further, such as the idea that flaws in macroeconomic theory helped lead to the financial crisis of 2008.

A Seminar of the Institute for New Economic Thinking, by Maria Cristina Marcuzo

The idea that businesses are run to maximize profits for shareholders is just plain wrong, says William Lazonick

In a show of good faith between two rising economic powers, China and Brazil have agreed to a bilateral currency swap.

This research project examines the long process of innovation at Fair Isaac, the analytics firm behind the FICO scoring system.

In his latest annual address at Cass Business School, Visiting Professor Lord Adair Turner warned that the world is caught in a ‘debt overhang’.

Note: As of March 2019, the Imperfect Knowledge Economics(IKE) Program has been re-launched as the INET Program on Knightian Uncertainty Economics (KUE). Please see the KUE page for updates on this body of work.

Should the government regulate personal behavior, or are the irrational choices of people actually reasonable?

Charles Goodhart, professor emeritus of the financial markets group at the London School of Economics, and Manoj Pradhan, founder of the research firm Talking Heads Macro, talk to Rob about their just released book, The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival

We propose several multivariate variance ratio statistics. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the statistics and scalar functions thereof under the null hypothesis that returns are unpredictable after a constant mean adjustment (i.e., under the weak form Efficient Market Hypothesis). We do not impose the no leverage assumption of Lo and MacKinlay (1988) but our asymptotic standard errors are relatively simple and in particular do not require the selection of a bandwidth parameter. We extend the framework to allow for a time varying risk premium through common systematic factors.

Presented at the inaugural Conference at King’s College

The Gender Pay Gap: Micro Sources and Macro Consequences

This paper analyzes regional contributions to the US payroll share from 1977 to 2017 and the four major business cycles throughout this period.

Some Fundamental Keynesian and Post-Keynesian Insights, with an Analysis of Possible Mechanisms to Achieve a Sustained Recovery

This chapter surveys experimental research on networks in economics.

Why did Corporate Democrats “cede” the economic argument? Are they really fighting inflation or trying to weaken workers’ bargaining power? INET’s Thomas Ferguson joins Paul Jay on theAnalysis.news.

At a G20 preparatory meeting in Berlin, an INET panel analyzed how governments can prevent banks from exploiting taxpayer-funded bailout guarantees

Contrary to common belief, this shift is not so much caused by the refugee crisis, but rather by the historical disaster that followed the big financial crisis since 2007.

While waiting for TALF

What is the real reason Democratic party leaders go along with the debt ceiling ritual?

A response to Phillip Magness in The Wall Street Journal

If the public is to be called upon for the second time in twelve years to bail out businesses, it should get something back for its money. Bailed out firms should be compelled to issue convertible bonds to the government.

From a money view perspective, the central issue is settlement of TARGET balances between national central banks within the Eurozone, and the key is to understand TARGET balances as a kind of interbank correspondent balance.

A presentation from The Economics of Post-Factual Democracy, the first annual conference of The Center for Information and Bubble Studies (CIBS) at The University of Copenhagen

This research project continues the work of the University of Texas Inequality Project, developing new data and research in several technical areas.

This research project develops a model of foreign exchange markets in which agents’ expectations are explicitly modeled and evolve over time and examines how these models perform in terms of capturing the behavior observed in the experiments with human subjects.

This research project focuses on the effect of the technological changes that led to the British Industrial Revolution in the eighteenth century on the market for skilled workers.

On the passing away of Luigi Pasinetti

The Turnaround in the Polls For the Democrats in the Key Swing States of Michigan, Wisconsin and PennsylvanIa

Given that this is a panel on that quintessential Enlightenment thinker Adam Smith, I can think of no better way to begin my remarks than to invoke that most enlightened of modern economists, Kenneth Boulding, who in 1971 penned the delightful essay, “After Samuelson, Who Needs Adam Smith?” 

What will empower a worker to be able to make greater demands on a profitable economy or employer? The answer may be summed up in one word: leverage.