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Remarks from Finance & Society May 6, 2015

Venture-backed “tech capital” is reshaping U.S. politics through campaign finance, platform gatekeeping, defense/AI procurement, and policy entrepreneurship. In an interview with Nick French, INET’s Research Director Thomas Ferguson discusses these channels of influence, examining their macro-distributional consequences, and outlining guardrails to restore democratic accountability and broadly shared gains.

Low interest rate policy can only do so much to bring the relief to American borrowers that they deserve: past monetary policies, credit market regulations and stagnant labor productivity growth all get in the way. Interest rate policy activism is part of the problem, not the solution.

Was Martin Luther King a socialist? New book may surprise you.

An interview with John Nkengasong, Director of Africa CDC, about how a coordinated response to COVID-19 in Africa has proven to be effective

A special note from INET board member john a. powell

As the world turns upside down, Mariana Mazzucato discusses how to shape an economy that works for everyone

RSS PUBLISHED TO eState4Column5©2013 Political Economy Group DK PEG Anti-Capitalist Chat TAGS Culture Economy Employment Media MMT PoliticalEconomy publicpolicy stagflation WhiteHouse Share this article Let real wages (of $15+/hour) grow faster than labor productivity for some years, undoing the wage repression of the last decades. We have been misled by neoliberal economics for now many decades, it’s time to turn many things around in what is becoming a second-rated US economy, recently crippled by the malevolent and narcissistic “king of debt”. In economics, stagflation or recession-inflation is a situation in which the inflation rate is high, the economic growth rate slows, and unemployment remains steadily high. It presents a dilemma for economic policy, since actions intended to lower inflation may exacerbate unemployment. The biggest risk for the stock market in 2021 is inflation, according to Morgan Stanley. Unprecedented radical spending by the federal government and the Federal Reserve, to stave off a panic-induced market crash, helped artificially drive stocks to temporary new highs last year. www.laloftblog.com/… For some, the math bore out the possibility that exuberance was rational even if the economy is always more irrational than its math. “The Lucas fantasy of costless disinflation from credible commitments in an ergodic world of rational agents was decisively falsified long ago.” The underlying problems of supply shocks related to Trumpian idiocy atop bailing out the banksters may have made the economy much worse. The pandemic has only made a bad situation worse, or made more of us myopic in our isolation. Paul Krugman has now taken the time to question the orthodoxy of stagflation. Darn economic orthodoxy being wrong since the 1970s. Let me start with the inflation story the way most economists, myself included, have been telling. In the beginning was the Phillips curve: the apparent tradeoff, fairly visible in the data, between unemployment and inflation. In the 1960s many people looked at that tradeoff, considered the mild costs of inflation versus the benefits of lower unemployment, and argued for monetary and fiscal policies aimed at running the economy hot. But in a hugely influential speech Milton Friedman made an argument also independently made by Columbia’s Edmund Phelps: the unemployment-inflation tradeoff wasn’t real, because any sustained effort to keep unemployment low would lead not just to high inflation but to ever-accelerating inflation. They claimed, specifically, that people setting wages and prices would begin marking them up to anticipate future inflation, so that the inflation rate associated with any given unemployment rate would keep rising. They predicted, in particular, that the course of the economy over time would look something like this: https___bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com_public_images_81db75c8-59f2-4b95-a60a-fe404a50c119_914x5331.png First, a government would push unemployment down; but this would lead to ever-rising inflation, which would stay high even as the economy cooled. So it would take a sustained period of high unemployment to get inflation down again, until finally unemployment could be brought back to a sustainable level. So their analysis predicted “clockwise spirals” in unemployment and inflation. Then came the 1970s: https___bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com_public_images_1d91277a-44fe-422b-b0c3-f1dfa8fb7428_933x5501.png This sure looked like a dramatically successful out-of-sample prediction — sort of an economics version of “Light bends!” Almost everyone in the economics profession took the Friedman-Phelps analysis as confirmed. This in turn had big practical and intellectual consequences. First, governments and central banks stopped pursuing low unemployment, believing that excessively ambitious stimulus caused the stagflation of the 1970s. They began aiming for stable unemployment around the NAIRU —non-accelerating-inflation rate of unemployment — instead. Second, since the Friedman/Phelps prediction was based on trying to assess what rational price-setters would do, their apparent success gave a big boost to the notion that all economics should be based on maximizing behavior. Friedman always had too strong a reality sense to personally go down the rational-expectations rabbit hole that swallowed much of macroeconomics, but given the law of diminishing disciples it was bound to happen. Third, the whole affair gave a boost to conservative ideology. We had seemingly seem a demonstration of the limits to government action; also, the Chicago boys had seemingly been proved right about something big. (I remember classmates in grad school saying “They were right about this. Why don’t you think they’re right about the rest?”) Finally, the Volcker disinflation of the 1980s — using high unemployment to end high inflation — became, in many minds, the model of what responsible policymakers should do: make tough choices for the sake of the future. BUT WHAT IF WE’VE BEEN TELLING THE WRONG STORY ALL ALONG? […] But suppose something like this is true. In that case, the narrative that saw stagflation both as the cost of excessively ambitious macroeconomic policy and as a vindication of conservative economic ideas was mostly wrong. And that matters not just for history but for policy right now, which is still to some extent constrained by the fear of a 70s repeat. How do you ask someone to be the last worker to be unemployed for a mistake? paulkrugman.substack.com/… The reality in a response by Lance Taylor and Nelson Henrique Barbosa Filho is that “For practical purposes, the results mean that, for the Fed to meet its inflation target, it would be necessary to let real wages grow faster than labor productivity for some years, undoing the wage repression of the last decades. Biden’s $15 minimum-wage proposal is a correct step in that direction.” This is despite so many economists taking an opposite, more cautious position. — Daily Kos

The idea that economics has recently gone through an empirical turn –that it went from theory to data– is all over the place. I argue that this transformation has been oversimplified and mischaracterized.

Carbon pricing still has the potential to be a powerful tool contributing to emissions reductions, but it is clearly no panacea.

How much does the standard theory of externalities and public goods really say?

Martin Luther King, Jr. and other civil rights leaders relied on black entrepreneurs to make their work possible

“Four men sat at a table. Raised sixty floors above the city, they did not speak loudly as one speaks from a height in the freedom of air and space; they kept their voices low, as befitted a cellar.”

And electric vehicles don’t do a lot better

The country’s flawed insurance model, driven by greed, leads to inefficiency, inequality, and denied care - a colossal scam that has sparked fury across the nation.

The distinguished economist talks about the power of entropy in shaping a new economic reality and viewing current events. His new book, Entropy Economics: The Living Basis of Value and Production, challenges flawed mainstream models that lead to distortions and bad policy.

A response to Phillip Magness in The Wall Street Journal

David Mussington, a leading expert on cybersecurity, reveals what’s worrying him, from Facebook to foreign interference.

Inflation and corporate profits, a further discussion, responding to Servaas Storm

Repeat after me: How much pipe should Fed plumbers lay if Fed plumbers like to lay pipe?

“Facebook is undermining our country, our democracy.”

Why is this a surprise?

In this initial blog post we wish to situate microeconomics as a field of social enquiry.

Average U.S. household loses over $100,000 to destructive activities of bankers and financiers

France, like many Western European countries, has strong campaign finance laws and a vibrant multiparty system. Yet even there, money has had a corrosive effect on democracy, as private donations have an outsized impact on electoral outcomes.

Evidence sharply contradicts PhRMA’s contention that its member companies need unregulated drug prices to generate profits that they then reinvest in drug innovation.

The intra-EMU divergences are a feature of the system rather than just a bug.

Learn to read, understand, and evaluate professional discourse about the current operation of money markets at the level of the Financial Times.

To understand politics in America, follow the money. When we do, we find good cause to expect McConnell’s shadow to live long beyond his tenure.

Predetermined profit margins and prices hidden in the back end of a transaction are really just market failures.

Notes from the Institute’s Director of Research on some significant papers and contributions produced in 2016 under the INET rubric 

Dr. Phillip Alvelda tells INET’s Lynn Parramore about persistent political and public health failures exposing us to devastating diseases, while vastly underestimating their long-term health effects.

The ECB has always been the protagonist of the eurozone crisis story.

Prejudice and collusion, not simply research quality, drive journal citations

How Penrosian Learning Confronts the Neoclassical Fallacy

Stagnating real wages may have contributed to the slowdown of US productivity

Because global warming doesn’t take a holiday

Vera Songwe, Chair of the Liquidity and Sustainability Facility, and former Executive Secretary of the UN Economic Commission for Africa, on the multiple crises facing African countries.

In this Q-and-A, historian and National Book Award finalist Heather Ann Thompson argues that draconian police tactics in black Detroit neighborhoods had as much to do with the city’s decimation as white flight and lost jobs.

Economists should stop pretending to be scientists and go back to the core of the discipline—as a field of inquiry and way of thinking

Ok, time to deal with the elephant in the room: when is one theory better than the other? What is progress in economics?

In the last years of his life, King was boldly forging a radical, multi-racial movement for economic justice

Economist Alicia Girón explains why a feminist perspective is crucial to new economic thinking.

I need a history of policy evaluation.

In the face of  laissez-faire capitalism at home and resurgent nationalism across the globe, INET offers an innovative look at the causes of—and solutions for—the problems that ail a fissuring world economy.

Lance Taylor responds to William Janeway’s essay on John Maynard Keynes and Frank Ramsey. Janeway then offers his response.

As in previous years, young scholars will come together in Trento during the annual Festival dell’Economia. This gathering will serve as the YSI Europe Convening for 2018. Attendees will have the opportunity to share their work with YSI members from across Europe, while also partaking in the Festival dell’Economia. 

Gerald Friedman responds to the Romers on the Sanders Plan.

Regulators propose democratizing data and encouraging competition to reign in Big Tech. But such moves won’t go far enough in protecting user privacy. New: A reply to critics

Re-evaluating the “equality-efficiency” trade-off

Phillip Alvelda, a former DARPA program manager, reveals how a fracturing federal system has opened the door for bold state leadership. Will blue states rise to build a healthier, more just future?

In this interview, Dr. Folashadé Soulé and Dr. Camilla Toulmin discuss with Nanjala Nyabola, a writer and researcher based in Nairobi, Kenya. Nanjala’s work focuses on the intersection between technology, media, and society. She is currently the Director of Advox, the digital rights programme at Global Voices. Nanjala has held numerous research associate positions including with the Overseas Development Institute (ODI), the Oxford Internet Institute (OII), and other institutions, while also working as a research lead for several projects on human rights broadly and digital rights specifically around the world.

Why freeing American households and businesses from crippling private debt would be a boon to the economy. Article reposted from DemocracyJournal.org.

Expanding, rather than cutting, Social Security is the solution

William Lazonick emphasizes that keeping workers productively employed is key to economic recovery from Covid-19 as well as a healthy economic future

In an exclusive interview, Benjamin Page discusses urgent reforms needed to tackle critical challenges, from undemocratic institutions to economic inequality.

The new IPCC Report is overly optimistic about global productivity growth and fossil fuel energy use. More dramatic, immediate action is needed

Recent developments in AI have added fuel to debates that have long simmered amongst economists, which could lead to a rethinking of economics itself.

To understand the rise of the League and 5 Star Movement, look at economic indicators

The Irresistible Force Meets the Immovable Object?

If libertarians wish to maintain their self-centered fixation on their own freedoms without considering others, let them do so — in indefinite quarantine from the rest of us.

Pharmaceutical drugs are often a matter of life or death. It should be a prime objective of government policy to rid the industry of financialization.

Pernicious cultural norms inside American banks and regulatory agencies have crowded out fundamental moral principles. Ed Kane proposes an antidote.

The Volcker Alliance and the Institute for New Economic Thinking convened a group of influential thinkers for a half-day forum to discuss regulatory and structural changes needed to ensure the stability and resilience of financial markets.

When an economic model fails, it is reality—and the people living in it—who pay the bills while the model lives on, unscathed.

Evidence-based answers to the main (policy) questions concerning the return of high inflation

Last June at a History of Social Science workshop , David Engerman presented a paper on the Harvard’s Refugee Interview Project (1950-1954).

A new book, The Hamilton Scheme, explores a very different founder than the one we’ve come to think we know.

How big tech barons crush innovation—and how to fight back

After FTX’s collapse, crypto looked finished. Yet Washington revived it, culminating in Trump’s GENIUS Act and a surprising Democratic shift. How did money and affluence predict pro-crypto votes, amid widening deregulation and cyber risk?

Does general equilibrium theory sufficiently enhance our understanding of the economic process to make the entire exercise worthwhile, if we consider that other forms of thinking may have been ‘crowded out’ as a result of its being the ‘dominant discourse’? What, in the end, have we really learned from it?

To able to deal with these consequences, our crisis response now should not lock us in into a permanent state of austerity, greater inequality and heightened vulnerability to future health calamities. New-old social democratic solutions are needed more than ever before.

A new book by economist Richard McGahey examines the country’s anti-urban structure and ideology, offering insights on how American cities can thrive.

Tony Atkinson’s new book points the way forward.

Discussion of the results of the ECB’s LTRO2 has revolved around the question of hoarding, specifically whether banks are using the newly-created reserves to fund new lending.

Alessandro Roncaglia has mulled the topic of power over his long and distinguished career – a topic most economists avoid. His new book explores the historical dynamics of power and asks how we can change its distribution today.

In the following conversation, law and economics expert Walker Todd explains how a financialized system creates havoc and why it’s time to rethink banking

Public funding behind the technology is the secret ingredient.

In this conversation with Folashadé Soulé and Camilla Toulmin, Pr Takyiwaa Manuh analyses how the pandemic has disproportionately affected women at different levels especially in Ghana, and describes why governments need to focus more strongly on the gendered impacts of COVID-19 in both their sanitary and economic response.

An Open Letter to Tim Cook, CEO of Apple

Elon Musk secured shareholder approval for a new stock-based package designed to double his voting power at Tesla, potentially making him the first trillion-dollar employee. As this plan cements Musk’s control it ties vesting to audacious market-cap and production targets and diverts focus from progressive value creation. Musk’s governance, layoffs, and politicization could imperil Tesla’s EV leadership and ambitions in AI and robotics.

Ten years after Lehman Brothers’ collapse, the Wall Street casino is running amok

Trump’s approach largely failed because the problem can’t be solved by tariffs. Here’s the answer.

Today’s richest Americans may soon blow past the tycoons of the Roaring Twenties. Lance Taylor explains why, and what to do about it.

Researchers find that the nation had become an outlier among other rich countries in mortality rates long before the pandemic – and that Americans are dying younger than their peers abroad.

Currencies or Commodities?

‘Helicopter money’ may in some circumstances be the only certain way to stimulate nominal demand

In Treasury markets, there are no libertarians, only grateful recipients of single-payer insurance for ailing financial markets.

In his 2017 presidential address to the National Economic Association, Professor Darrick Hamilton warned that treating economics as a morally neutral ‘science’, and the discipline’s limited attention to structural barriers and overemphasis individual agency, has resulted in bad economics, and bad policy particularly as it relates to racial disparity.

Times have changed. Now we have David Brooks, of The New York Times, and economics blogger Noah Smith defending neoliberal globalization from the pincer movement of anti-trade populists from both the right and the left.

It’s time for business executives, employees, and taxpayers to come together to help get us out of the pandemic and create conditions for a sustainable and equitable future

A new online course challenges typical teaching approaches.

An interview with Gilles Yabi, executive director of the West African Think Tank WATHI, on food security in Africa

Authors Bill Bergman and Larry Feltes argue that declining public confidence in government and financial institutions is putting the U.S. economy in peril — and a crisis could come faster than you think.

Amid debates over costs—and profits—from a coronavirus vaccine, a new study shows that taxpayers have been footing the bill for every new drug approved between 2010 and 2019

The McKinsey report’s highlighting of an extremely high job vacancy ratio in recent years does not reflect the true state of the U.S. labor market.