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A formal argument that Kahneman and Tversky’s compelling empirical findings, and those of other behavioral economists, do not provide a basis for a general approach to specifying participants’ “predictable errors.”

We investigate the claim that the way in which debtor households service their debts matters for macroeconomic performance.

Examining the crucial role of poverty and inequality in shaping household indebtedness.

“To save the economy, you have to save people first, is the title of a paper by Alvelda, Ferguson and Mallery of the Institute for New Economic Thinking. This work groups countries into three categories, according to the response to the covid: those that gave priority to maintaining economic life; those who focused on taking care of health first and those who wanted to be placed in the middle, but did not do either one well. The best economic results correspond to those who prioritized health. They are countries that are in Asia and Oceania, mainly. The worst are in the other two groups. Those who did not define one or the other, got the worst of both worlds: many deaths and great economic damage. What can be done? Alvelda, Ferguson, and Mallery recommend targeted subsidies by regions and sectors hardest hit; guarantee income for workers in non-essential activities and subsidize health safety measures for all those who cannot stop. This means, among other things, public money to make public transport and some massive workplaces more sanitary. Subsidize supervision / surveillance measures in spaces where many people go: shopping centers and places of religious worship, for example.” — Luis Miguel Gonzalez, El Economista (translated from Spanish)

This research project provides guidance to policymakers for designing policies that are able to bring economies out of recessions by identifying the best policies to fight unemployment and stabilize the business cycle while alleviating inequality.

This resarch project examines the economic theory, policy, and international political economy of cross border finance in the run up to and in the wake of the global financial crisis of 2008.

Smart Energy

Who gains—and who loses—from global capitalism?

Economist Gordon Lafer describes a race against the education technology industry to do what’s right for America’s kids

By helping abate the liquidity crisis, incidences of banks becoming insolvent are reduced, and hence moral hazard in its severest form is minimized.

An obituary for Axel Leijunhufvud (Sept 6, 1933 - May 5, 2022)

By suddenly eliminating two widely used bank notes, India’s government risks undermining public confidence in the basic means of exchange

Till is right. It’s not the historian’s task to question the legitimacy of the decisions of the Nobel Committee.

The corporate titans of yore once offered a sizable wage premium over smaller employers—but not anymore. What happened?

What is the scale of effort that is actually required to initiate global cyber warfare? Amir Herzberg elaborates on cyber security, cyber warfare and basic privacy in the global digital age.

Your average economics textbook presents the neat image of a discipline with many useful conceptual paradigms for viewing the world. But it almost never gives any sense of how these ideas developed.

“While it’s incredibly difficult to get a regulatory reform passed, it’s far easier – and more profitable to politicians – to kill it.

You would have thought that to be a “jazz economist” was a good thing. I first imagined a “cool cat” that would entrance the hearts and minds of the populace. Not so.

Last week, I spent a few days in the Dalton-Brand Research Room, at Duke University, skimming through the Samuelson papers.

The Young Scholars Initiative and the University of the Free State, SA, invite young scholars to attend the first YSI Africa conference. 

This research project designs and evaluates new strategies that can address the issues of financing human capital investments by developing and estimating a unified framework.

This paper responds to a paper by Claudio Borio, Piti Disyatat and Anna Zabai “Helicopter Money: the Illusion of a Free Lunch”

Are there alternative, less socially costly, ways to bring inflation down?

From climate change to global public health, from inclusive development and sustainable growth, areas for cooperation abound between the US and China in a world hungry for directions and leadership. If, as Martin Luther King says, we may arrive in different ships, but we are in same boat”, how might the US and China work together on these issues?

Over and over again, US government policies designed to transfer and create wealth and economic opportunity were restricted to whites by design.

Wishful thinking and tinkering won’t cut it. Nothing short of a mass mobilization for deep de-carbonization across the global economy can avert the looming climate catastrophe.

Professor Glenn Hubbard, professor of Finance and Economics at Columbia Business School, talks about his just-released book, “The Wall and the Bridge: Fear and Opportunity in Disruption’s Wake,” and how society and policymakers can help those who are left behind in the wake of today’s competitive world.

William Lazonick emphasizes that keeping workers productively employed is key to economic recovery from Covid-19 as well as a healthy economic future

William Darity, Jr. has a new key to unlocking the mystery of inequality: stratification economics.

“How could Michigan officials possibly talk about cutting the average $19,000-a-year pension benefit for municipal workers while reaffirming their pledge of$283 million in taxpayer money to a professional hockey stadium?

National States and Conflicting Economic Priorities in the Making of the European Monetary System

We need to ban stock buybacks, while building a movement for basic economic rights

Over the next year, the Bitcoin price could double, soar tenfold, or collapse by 95% or more, and no economic analysis can help predict where in that range it will lie. Like other cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin serves no useful economic purpose, though in macroeconomic terms, such currencies probably also do little harm.

The same angst that Americans and Europeans have about the future of jobs is an order of magnitude higher in Asia.

It’s not just Turkey­—from India to Indonesia, external financial liabilities are a looming threat

Did the global economic collapse in 2008 stem from structural failures in the capitalist system?

Excerpts from a draft introduction of Till Düppe’s and Roy Weintraub’s new book, under revision for Princeton University Press, presently carrying the working title “Finding Equilibrium: Arrow, Debreu, McKenzie and the Transformation of Economic Theory

A correspondent sends us to a column of Paul Krugman’s that asserts that “nobody understands debt”. Fair enough.

In the case of utility, it’s all in the name.

“This survey gives a voice to US health care workers who have been on the frontlines of COVID-19,” David Michaels, a professor of environmental and occupational health at the George Washington University and former administrator of the Occupational Safety and Health Administration, said. “Health care workers have valuable first-hand knowledge about this pandemic and this report offers recommendations that could help keep the U.S. on a steady course now and in the future.” …. Michaels and Melissa Perry, a professor and chair of the Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, provided guidance in producing the report. The McElhattan Foundation and the Institute for New Economic Thinking provided financial support for the survey and the report.” — George Washington University

Social scientists have stubbornly held that money and election outcomes are at most weakly linked. New research provides clear evidence to the contrary.

Repression in China today is at its most severe point since the aftermath of 1989. David Wu discusses the tensions inherent in a one-party state which is struggling to aspire toward a more predictable rule of law.

My friend and “grown-up kid” Yann Giraud just called my attention to Paul Krugman’s recent column, “Empire of the Institute”, on Roy Weintraub’s recently edited HOPE volume “MIT and the Transformation of American Economics” (to which three Playground kids contributed: Yann, Beatrice Cherrier and myself).

The future of macro, he says, may well make “the formation and revision of expectations an object of analysis in its own right.”

Modern Monetary Theory is problematic. Launching large scale fiscal programs that rely on it would be skating on thin ice.

Dr. Victor Gurewich, a researcher and Harvard Medical School faculty member since 1965, discovered a breakthrough drug treatment for heart attacks and strokes with the potential to save millions, but institutional resistance and a U.S. healthcare system that puts profits over patients are keeping it out of reach.

The depth of the U.S. securities market helps ensure dollar hegemony

Janine Wedel charts the fast–evolving system of power and influence. Who is accountable? What are the remedies available to the average citizen?

A federal government guarantee or 100% reserve banking? Which is better?

One of the fundamental ideas of modern economics — that people have rational expectations, an unbiased, statistically correct view of the future — is, in reality, a simple hypothesis.

This research project provides insights into how the lending market and resale market for asset-backed securities could have broken down during the 2008-2009 financial crisis, leading to a near-collapse of the banking sector and to a significant decline in real loan activity.

This research project analyzes the determinants of wage share, taking account of country-specific institutional aspects, in order to contribute to the theory of distribution, combining insights from political economy, institutional economics, and industrial relations.

Breaking the Silence

Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) are considered “passive” investors and are exempt from corporate tax. But in reality, they play a very active role in reshaping whole industries, like healthcare.

We conclude that representing dynamic realism in such models is as important as – and far more empirically tractable than – continued debate about the monetization of climate damages and ‘social cost of carbon’.

How NAFTA led to GOP dominance of the American South

In this comment, we explain our objections to the SEC’s current formulation of the Pay Ratio Disclosure Rule on each of three grounds: the erroneous estimation of CEO pay; the unclear specification of the “median” worker; and the risk of normalizing a pay ratio that is far too high. Then we present the latest data on the remuneration of the 500 highest-paid CEOs in the United States, demonstrating the way in which the SEC’s measure of CEO pay that enters into the CEO-to-median-worker pay ratio tends to systematically underestimate actual executive pay.

By evading regulation of credit default swaps, the major U.S. banks put taxpayers—and the entire economy—at risk

Throughout its first 10 years operation, the John Bates Clark medal was constantly challenged. Many young economists found it biased toward theory, and demanded the establishment of a distinct award for applied work.

The United States government openly flirting with a default on its debt is, to the financial system, like a Pope wondering out loud about the existence of God.

The International Monetary Fund’s chief economist, Olivier Blanchard, recently asked a simple and important question: “How much of an adjustment has to be made by Greece, how much has to be made by its official creditors?” But that raises two more questions: How much of an adjustment has Greece already made? And have its creditors given anything at all?

An Open Letter to Tim Cook, CEO of Apple

Contrary to the dominant media narrative, social issues like racism and sexism on their own can’t explain Trump’s success.

This article originally appeared in The Sunday Times of London

Michael Goldberg was awarded last week the Todd H. Crockett Professor of Economics at the Peter T. Paul College of Business and Economics at the University of New Hampshire.

The YSI Keynesian Economics Working Group is co-hosting a PhD seminar at the Nordic Post-Keynesian Conference entitled “Economics at the Edge”.

“Rich economies have more resources to spare to prioritise saving lives. And Wolf reproduces the Institute for New Economic Thinking’s now famous chart that refutes the idea there is a “trade-off” between saving the economy and saving lives. On the whole, those states that prioritised saving lives also lost less economic output. China is the standout case. But it isn’t just about how rich an economy is. The same chart shows that the states that suffered the biggest losses of lives and output include Italy, Britain, Spain, and France. The US and Belgium aren’t far behind.” —Alex Callinicos

This research project demonstrates the ways in which fact and value are entangled in economic concepts and the implications of this entanglement for the ways in which various economic problems are approached.

Much historical commentary emphasizes how pandemics restructure long-standing social and political arrangements. The observation applies to macroeconomics as well.

Investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) allow foreign capitalists to run roughshod over the rights of Ecuadorians

To mark International Women’s Day, Neva Goodwin argues that the crisis of income insecurity and longstanding gender inequality require a form of universal basic income that recognizes and rewards the value of household labor

This article originally appeared on Bloomberg

Evidence from Insider Trading in Banks

Friedrich von Hayek described the economist’s task as demonstrating how little we really know about what we imagine we can design

Eric Weinstein of Thiel Capital, a mathematician, physicist, and economist, explains the issues around economic thought and their potential consequences.

It’s day two of INET’s Conference in Bretton Woods and a new energy has filled the halls and sessions with the arrival of nearly thirty student attendees.

This paper analyzes the role of local spending, particularly on social welfare, and local inequality as factors in the Italian political crisis following the adoption in 2011 of more radical national austerity measures.

Our findings confirm the existence of a negative relationship between labor market slack and the wage share, and we find no tendency to return to a ‘normal’ unemployment rate associated with a stable wage share.

Increased borrowing by middle-class families with low income growth played a central role in rising indebtedness

Economics can be creative, it can be rigorous, it can be relevant.

What would it look like if women and other marginalized groups could fully participate in our economy and society?

Report to the Institute for New Economic Thinking on the statistical measurement and policy implications of the compensation of the highest- paid U.S. corporate executives

The largely unexpected arrival of the global economic crisis and the largely unpredicted slowness of the recovery from the Great Recession should be precipitating an intellectual crisis across economics and policy making. We require additional theories and additional methods to detect how an economy is evolving and to provide the basis for policy intervention (Haldane, 2014).

In the past decade and a half, state and local public employee retirement systems in the United States have significantly shifted their fund investment strategies toward a greater allocation in alternative investments. Today, roughly $660 billion of public pension funds are invested in hedge funds and private equity funds. These alternative investments typically require new governance structures within the pension funds in order to adequately monitor accompanying risks and returns, management fee arrangements and investment complexity.

Fears of ‘stagflation’ have come back to haunt macroeconomic policy makers all over the globe

Changes to deeply entrenched systems of unequal gender power dynamics, roles and relations, underpinned by patriarchal values, are part of an effective response to the prevention of sexual harassment and its economic consequences.

On deregulation and Covid masks, libertarians are loud. On female liberty, deafening silence.

A critique of Mankiw’s Macroeconomics

On 25 September 2015, the United Nations General Assembly adopted the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), an ambitious policy agenda that aims to eradicate poverty, in all its forms and dimensions, by 2030.

Everyone wants to ring-fence something, but they can’t agree on what: Vickers, Liikanen, Volcker.

Can we learn something from philosophy students?

In the era of COVID and digital movements, strikes look radically different from traditional labor strikes

Justice requires that the media, policy makers, and the public understand why corporations engage in misconduct and fraud

States can be sorted into two groups with statistically significantly different productivity regimes. In this sense, the US economy shows signs of dualism—which is the idea that the economy consists of heterogeneous units that exhibit different behaviors and levels of performance.

This essay critically evaluates the benefits and costs of the dominant methodology in macroeconomics, the DSGE approach. Although the approach has led to great progress in some areas, it has also created biases and blind spots in the profession that hold back our understanding and our ability to govern the macroeconomy. There is great scope for progress in macroeconomics by judiciously pushing the boundaries of some of the methodological restrictions imposed by the DSGE approach.

It is often argued that in recent years the question of the ‘dissemination’ of economic knowledge has been increasingly addressed by historians of economics.

The title is the same as that of Maury Obstfeld’s Ely Lecture, delivered Jan 6 at the AEA meetings in Chicago. Yours truly was at the meetings mainly to deliver a paper on “Three Principles for Market-Based Credit Regulation”, about which more in a later post. And for most of the rest of the time I was locked in a hotel room interviewing candidates for an assistant professor slot at Barnard College (which gave me a good overview of the current state of macroeconomics, again fodder for a later post).