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The Next Economic Frontier and the Wild World of Non-Rational Expectations

One of the fundamental ideas of modern economics — that people have rational expectations, an unbiased, statistically correct view of the future — is, in reality, a simple hypothesis. And despite its prominence in recent economic thought, this hypothesis and the economic models that rely on it have been the subject of serious debate since the advent of the Great Recession.

Roger Guesnerie leads the charge in this effort to scrutinize the rational expectations hypothesis from diverse angles and propose more realistic alternatives. He is building a network of new economic thinkers and scholars from all over the world to tackle this important economic problem. The idea is to bridge intellectual boundaries and foster communication where communication is absent, namely between highly specialized subfields each singling out one particular aspect of the rational expectations hypothesis and analyzing it from a particular angle. Guesnerie is a bridge builder and pioneer into the economic unknown of non-rational expectations.

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