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How to Get Relief to Those Who Need It. Gosia Glinska in Conversation with Anton Korinek

“But COVID vaccines are by no means unique — most medicines developed and approved in the United States involve taxpayer investment. Between 2010 and 2019, every single new medicine approved by the Food and Drug Administration included taxpayer-funded research through NIH. Drug companies patent the drugs we pay to develop and then charge us exorbitant prices for them that increase every year — sometimes twice a year.” — Terry Minow, Missoulian

“Economic opportunity was further restricted by individual and institutionalized racism and political disenfranchisement. Discrimination in hiring by employers and intimidation of black workers through violence placed black workers at a direct disadvantage in the labor market,” Trevon Logan Peter Temin wrote in “Inclusive American Economic History: Containing Slaves, Freedmen, Jim Crow Laws, and the Great Migration,” a working paper written for the Institute for New Economic Thinking.” — Coastal Review

Fred Ledley, professor at Bentley University and co-author of an INET-funded research paper on pharma research funding, discusses the research and how US taxpayers might get more social benefit out of the initial investment they put into all new pharmaceuticals released over the past decade

Jeremy Lent, founder of founder of the Liology Institute and author of The Patterning Instinct, talks to Rob about how values shape our economics and our reaction to the pandemic, and how the pandemic could, in turn, provoke a shift in values in favor of community and against neoliberalism.

Matt Stoller, Research Director at the American Economic Liberties Project and author of the book, Goliath: The Hundred Year War Between Monopoly Power and Democracy, talks with Rob about how the pandemic is affecting the power of monopolies in our politics and economics, and the paths forward as supply chain issues are laid bare.

Behind sex, drugs and rock ‘n’ roll were moral values, says music industry veteran Danny Goldberg

A conflict which revolves around key economic policy differences on questions such as rules vs. discretion, solidarity vs. liability, liquidity vs. solvency and austerity vs. stimulus.

This paper provides critical comments on the Peter Temin - David Vines promotion of the basic Swan Diagram as (1) a policy tool to encourage any individual debtor nation experiencing balance of payment deficits to reduce its exchange rate in order to expand exports and reduce imports and (2) the Swan Diagram as a simple model for understanding Keynes’s General Theory for an Open Economy.

Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff tell the history of financial crisis as a tale of excessive public debt. But what more commonly drives financial instability, says Moritz Schularick, is excessive private debt.

Lunch was just interrupted Bill Janeway standing up to announce that this morning he decided to give $25m to INET and the board will fund-raise this up to $100m over ten years, but then George Soros added $50m in unconditional funding for INET.

This research project explores how the output of firms outside of the financial sector is affected by the health of the banks and other financial institutions.

A collection of INET’s research and articles on race and the US economy, reposted in connection with recent protests against police brutality in Black communities.

This blog post looks at the aggregate picture and collates some micro evidence in a more robust estimating framework to shed light on this question.

How can we better protect Main Street from the externalities of Wall Street?

Grand Bargain at last?

Behind towering figures like Rosa Parks and Martin Luther King, Jr. were the taxi dispatchers, pharmacists, grocers, and other small business owners who were instrumental in making civil rights a reality.

This new series will explore different takes on and claims about the challenges of women and minorities in economics, opening up a debate on a range of questions.

Mercantilism, Accumulation of Foreign Exchange Reserves, and RMB Internationalization

I interviewed Victor Shih, political scientist at Northwestern, at INET’s Bretton Woods conference earlier this year.

Two separate INET funded research articles are cited; first from Schularick, Jordà, & Taylor on leveraged bubbles followed by Bao, Hommes, & Makarewicz on bubble formation. “Since their inception, financial markets, and to a lesser extent some real markets, have been subject to bubbles. … More recently, stock prices, but also credit, real estate, commodities, bond markets, and famously, bitcoin, are all assets that have experienced bubble episodes. Regarding cryptocurrencies, many economists also defend a permanent bubble, their fundamental value being theoretically non-existent.” …. In fact, the presence of bubbles in the markets (financial and real) seems to stem from the persistent behavior of economic agents. Experimental studies, controlling exactly the actual value, showed that participants tended to set up a bubble-like operation, with price surges and collapses very similar to real economy situations, and in no way related to a change in the market.

“Their new working paper, just published by the Institute for New Economic Thinking in New York, gives a rigorously technical analysis of what these tools reveal, and the Institute’s research director, Thomas Ferguson, has helpfully fashioned an introduction to — and a historical context for — the McGuire-Delahunt analysis that lay readers will find easily accessible. Ferguson, himself a pioneer in social science research on political decision making, points out that “the idea that public opinion powers at least the broad direction of public policy in formally democratic countries like the United States has been an article of faith in both political science and public economics for generations.” —Sam Pizzigati

Christopher Cramer and John Sender, authors of the book, African Economic Development: Evidence, Theory, and Policy, discuss their book (co-written with Arkebe Oqubay) and how economic policy needs to be rooted in flexibly responding to changing circumstances and consequences, instead of dogma. Link to a PDF version of the book: http://fdslive.oup.com/www.oup.com/academic/pdf/openaccess/9780198832331.pdf

Many believe that we already have a healthcare problem. But let’s get this straight: healthcare is a solution. Joon Yun posits a new way of thinking about health, illness and aging.

This research project contends that Piero Sraffa tried to develop an economic theory that could stand up as an alternative to the orthodox theory of value and provide a foundation for the Keynesian and post-Keynesian alternatives.

The New York Review

what would measures of systematic risk have indicated to Treasury Secretary Paulsen if they had been available at that time?

After the recent election brought a center-right coalition to power, what’s next in the Greek crisis? Are we finally in the clear? Not so fast, Greek economist Yanis Varoufakis says. Varoufakis explains the real outcome we can except after Greek voters’ “contradictory verdict,” where 55% voted for anti-bailout parties yet a pro-bailout government resulted due to the nature of Greece’s electoral system.

[The following guest post is by John Whittaker, from whom we have learned much of what we know about how the European payments system works. See his terrific papers here and here, both of which reward close study. He has been looking over the last couple Money View posts, and the comments to those posts, and has this to say.]

Okay, so here is the statement, but what does it mean? Felix Salmon offers an unnamed advisor’s flowchart. Let’s see if Money View thinking can do better.

The first thing to say about QE2 is that it is a very different operation from QE1.

What’s really going on with Europe’s bailout of the Irish Economy

Adam Tooze discusses his new book with Rob Johnson

“How talented is the right? Maybe not so much. The late Yale political scientist Charles Lindblom, author of the 1977 book Politics and Markets (and onetime American Political Science Association president), would have told Giridharadas that in a capitalist economy, business elites enjoy a “privileged” position. This position does not always align with party, but it alters the field of play. Lindblom’s position is backed by others. Thomas Ferguson wrote about the investment theory of politics in 1990s. In the past decade, Ben Page of Northwestern has covered similar ground.” — Steve Dubb, Nonprofit Quarterly

“The Biden administration must put a high enough price on carbon pollution to encourage the scale and urgency of action needed to meet the commitments it has made to Americans and the rest of the world. The future of our planet depends on it” — Nicholas Stern & Joseph Stiglitz, Project Syndicate

Nobel laureate economist and Professor at Columbia University Joseph Stiglitz talks to Rob (his former graduate student in the Princeton Econ Department and member of the 2009 UN Stiglitz Commission) about what the pandemic has revealed about the U.S. economy’s shortcomings, and how a proper response to other crises—like climate change—could actually stimulate economic growth and innovation.

Roman Frydman, Professor of Economics at NYU and Chair of the Knightian Uncertainty Economics Program at INET, talks to Rob about how behavioral economists model uncertainty and his critique of the rational expectations hypothesis. Frydman also discusses the work and legacy of the late University of Chicago economist Frank Knight, whose students included Milton Friedman and James Buchanan.

Turner discusses The Economist’s Society the liquidity risks posed by Exchange Traded Funds.

This research project explores the origins of covered mortgage bonds and tests for the impact of financial development on economic growth by analyzing the Prussian Landschaften.

This research project studies contagion among financial institutions and the role of financial market regulation in weakening or strengthening the transmission of financial turmoil across institutions.

John Smithin argues that we need to rethink the “consensus” with tools old and new.

Emerging out of the COVID lockdown, inflation in the U.S. and globally has risen to the highest levels in 40 years. On December 2-3, PERI will host a conference to explore the causes of this global inflation spike. Conference participants will also provide critical perspectives on the austerity macroeconomic policies being implemented globally to control inflation and will propose alternative policies capable of managing inflation without imposing austerity and rising mass unemployment.

A collection of INET research and articles on how and why the middle class has been shrinking and how this leads to a “dual economy”

Registration is now open for YSI Commons, at INET’s Plenary Conference, Berlin April 12-15.

Mortality and economic data show how constraints to government spending and a skepticism of redistributive policies have made the pandemic far worse

We study analytically and numerically Minsky instability as a combination of top-down, bottom-up and peer-to-peer positive feedback loops.

a lack of US growth may lead to a fall in the dollar’s popularity, and the result could be a global liquidity shortage.

The Institute of New Economic Thinking Young Scholars Initiative (INET YSI) Working Group on the History of Economic Thought is organizing a YSI Workshop on Methods in the History of Economic Thought on 17 May in Antwerp, Belgium, ahead of the Annual ESHET Conference.

George Soros’ latest op-ed in the Project Syndicate reasserts his view how perpetual bonds could help the European Union overcome its deadlock on fiscal spending.

New INET Governing Board Member Announcement

Fake news, propaganda, and “expertise”: What has happened to information in the information age?

All things can be coded as capital, with the right legal coding.

A look at the large role the trade deficit of the United States has played since the 1980s.

Abigail Disney, filmmaker, founder of Peace, So Loud, and podcast host of All Ears, discusses how changes among the country’s elite, towards the “Greed is Good” ethic and a blind faith in markets have made inequality more extreme than ever and why we need a new discourse, even among progressives, that recognizes and respects the contributions of society’s poorest.

Smick argues that distortions of capitalism have fed populist rebellion, and that reviving a capitalism that offers opportunity for average people to increase their earnings is an urgent priority if America’s political economy is to be stabilized.

When you flip a coin, you expect heads and tails to show up with a 50% chance each. But what if all you knew was that heads and tails each have a chance of at least 25%? That’s how Scott Condie captures Knightian uncertainty in asset markets.

This research project builds on theory indicating that credit flows to the real sector have systematically different effects from financial flows to asset markets.

This research project collects data that measures maternal knowledge about the impacts of investments on child development and estimates the role such knowledge plays in the determination of economic and social inequality.

We heartily congratulate her on receiving the Nobel Prize in Economics.

“Meso” level analysis of 16 producing sectors sheds light on broad forces shaping growth of employment and profits. 

Adam Smith and his contemporaries were key figures of the Scottish enlightenment. How much of his real thought survives in modern economics, and has something important been lost?

Former Treasury Secretary Paul Volcker reviews a life’s work and the pressing challenges of the moment in conversation with Institute for New Economic Thinking President Rob Johnson

Prof. Marlene Kim says her research has revealed that African-American women face triple penalties from race and gender bias, and the combination of those two

Regulation and supervision of banks and financial markets are now upgraded in the euro area. Surveillance of macroeconomic performance of all EU countries is also intensified.

Conservative legal theory is based on a shoddy definition of what constitutes “efficiency”

The INET conference in Hong Kong is serious business.

I think I am on the track of what ‘New Economics’ is, and one could roughly sum up two days of presentations in two diagrams:

The title of the conference, “Paradigm Lost,” is an obvious combination of two references.

Yesterday, Harvard students of Ec 10 staged a walkout to draw attention to the bias they detect in the course.

Anton Jäger discusses his new book “Welfare for Markets: A Global History of Basic Income” co-authored with Daniel Zamora Vargas.

Daniel Zamora Vargas discusses his new book “Welfare for Markets: A Global History of Basic Income” co-authored with Anton Jäger.

We develop a neo-Kaleckian growth model that emphasizes the importance of consumption behavior.

Any effort to replace the Affordable Care Act will be confronted by the same structural imbalances in the health care economy that the legislation’s authors faced

Vice President warns that corporate stock buybacks restrict America’s long-term prosperity, citing the research of Institute grantee William Lazonick who has long argued the same

These days, one hears worries of impending inflation.

Sense about Social Security

Nicholas Mangee, associate professor of finance in the Parker College of Business at Georgia Southern University, begins How Novelty and Narratives Drive the Stock Market with a statement that encompasses the problem he tackles and the compelling reason for investor interest in the new-style thinking that addresses it. This detailed stock market study attempts to extend Nobel Prize-winner Robert Shiller’s development of narrative economics, albeit Mangee’s focus is on novelty information embedded in textual news narratives. Using a set of text-based indices to capture the uncertainty and ambiguity in unscheduled news, Mangee measures the impact of news narratives on equity behavior.

“It looks as if Joe Biden will win a very tight electoral college victory against arguably the worst president in history in the midst of a deadly pandemic and crippled economy the incumbent has bungled disastrously. How could this election even be close? ROB JOHNSON, Executive Director of the Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET), and I talk about how we got here and what it’s going to take to move forward. As long as both parties depend on Wall Street and the 1% for funding, our real challenges - climate change, restoring the middle class, healthcare, systemic racism, etc.- will never truly be dealt with.” —- Terrence McNally

“One place to look always is where’s the money? Who funds congress? Actually, there’s a very fine careful study of this by the leading scholar who deals with funding issues in politics, Thomas Ferguson. He and his colleagues did a study about a year ago a careful study in which they investigated a simple question, “what’s the correlation over the years many years between campaign funding and electability to congress?” It’s almost a straight line, it’s the kind of close correlation that you barely get in the social sciences. The greater the funding, the higher the electability. You can find a few cases here and there that aren’t right on the line, but from the standpoint of social science it’s a remarkable correlation.” — Noam Chomsky, Jacobin

Andrew Michael Spence—Nobel laureate, Professor of Economics at the NYU Stern School of Business, and Co-Chair of INET’s Commission on Global Economic Transformation—talks to Rob about how the U.S. government typically errs on the side of doing too little, too late, in response to major crises like the coronavirus pandemic. Spence and Rob compare and contrast how governments in the U.S., Europe, and Asia have responded to COVID-19.

James Galbraith says academic economics is in need of radical reform

Mainstream economists have ignored private debt to our peril

This research project establishes the conditions under which international capital flows are a force for stability, thereby improving the capacity for macroeconomic policy to avoid large boom-bust cycles.

Robert Solow, “Notes on Coping.” In Szenberg ed. Eminent Economists: their Life Philosophy, 1992, p270

A discussion with Kaushik Basu, Professor of Economics and the C. Marks Professor of International Studies at Cornell University and former Senior Vice President and Chief Economist of the World Bank. 

This paper asks, how empirical evidence does or does not influence economic thinking and theory. In particular, which role do calibration, statistical inference, and structural change play?

The monetary-fiscal policy connection is under scrutiny by the German Constitutional Court in the context of the ECB’s OMT bond-buying programme. This column argues that most analyses are deeply flawed by the misapplication of private-company default principles to the central bank. ECB bond-buying transforms public bonds into monetary base, and sovereign-default risk into inflation risk. The real question is: What is the non-inflationary limit to money-base expansion? This depends upon the economic situation and is much higher in the current liquidity-trap setting.

Been following Larry Summers and Joe Stiglitz’s debate over secular stagnation? Check out their INET work on the topic here and decide for yourself who makes the better case.

I have read the various conference papers and am struck by the fact that many use the (omnipresent New-Keynesian) model of an aggregate loanable funds market to diagnose secular stagnation and investigate possible remedies.

Income and wealth inequality have been rising in the past three decades. Surprisingly, inequality has been largely ignored in the literature and practice of monetary policy. However, due to the crisis, this question has been gaining more attention.

Is Market Capitalism simply an accident of certain factors that came together in the 19th and 20th centuries? Does the innovation of economics require a new economics of innovation? Is the study of economics deeply affected by the incentive structures faced by economists themselves, necessitating a study of the “economics of economics”?