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Rob Johnson and Michael Sandel discuss the limits of rational choice

After re-iterating five well-known theorems about the properties of conditional expectations in stationary settings—such as providing unbiased minimum mean square error predictions despite in- complete information, and the law of iterated expectations—we clarify unpredictability and illustrate its prevalence empirically.

Tania Singer on the key importance of understanding preferences and behavioral change.

And how do they relate to our democratic institutions and institutional social relations?

Most of us probably think of management consultancy as a technocratic function, helping companies fix internal problems in order to become more productive. But Institute for New Economic Thinking grantee Kimberley Chong thinks about it in a different way, by viewing management consultancy through the lens of cultural anthropology.

Paul Samuelson is well-known to have been a compulsive citer and for having a particular Whig program for the history of economics

Comments on “German Wage Moderation and the Eurozone Crisis: A Critical Analysis” by Servaas Storm

Yuen Yuen Ang, political science professor at the University of Michigan and author of the book, China’s Gilded Age, argues that the US and China have more in common than we usually think and that it makes more sense to see the conflict as a clash of gilded ages instead of a clash of civilizations.

What’s the Future and Why It’s Up to Us

It was too good to be true: Another effort to vindicate austerity falls victim to flawed methodology.

George Soros and Rob Johnson Discuss the Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Financial Crisis

Watch music industry veteran Shep Gordon and INET President Rob Johnson talk about how reality TV, celebrity chefs, and surfing explain American politics and economy today.

This paper explains how hedge-fund activists are exerting power over corporate resourceallocation far in excess of the actual voting power of their shareholdings.

Academia—and economics in particular—has increasingly placed emphasis on measures of research “quality” that do more to narrow intellectual exploration than they do to produce good scholarship. With a mandate of reforming the economics profession, INET has produced a series of research on the issues of evaluation and citations, academic conformity, and exactly what makes “good” economics.

Adam Posen, President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, discussing the lessons of macroeconomic stimulus provided by the recent histories of Japan and Great Britain.

In a classic book and subsequent articles, Obstfeld and Taylor (2004) have shown how the broad contours of international financial history over the past century and a half can be well understood by appealing to the famous economictrilemma which emerges from the standard Mundell-Fleming model many of us still teach our undergraduates.

The developed economies of Europe, North America, and Japan are facing tremendous challenges related to indebtedness and stagnation. How will the developing economies of Asia respond to this challenge as they reorient their growth strategies to meet the rising aspirations oftheir people?

The modern individual is the point of intersection of the processes of consumption and production. The subjective representation of these processes has been determined by two branches of the modern middle class, the bourgeoisie, which has privileged consumption, and the bureaucracy, which has privileged production.

Three major crises are confronting the world. The first is the increasing and uneven burden of humans on the biosphere, and the observation that we have already surpassed the ‘safe operating space’ for humanity with respect to three planetary boundaries: climate change, the nitrogen cycle and biodiversity loss.

Brendan Ballou discusses the growing harmful role of private equity in the US, and his forthcoming book. Ballou is a federal prosecutor and served as Special Counsel for Private Equity in the Justice Department’s Antitrust Division.

Giulia Zacchia focuses on the dynamics of power and gender in the labor market, revealing how sexual harassment not only impacts individual women but also perpetuates broader societal inequalities.

Bergman’s groundbreaking work in the field of feminist economics challenged conventional economic theories and emphasized the significance of power, patriarchy, and social provisioning.

Sensitivity of investment and valuation to drug price indices and market conditions

Many thought the financial crash was a final blow to capitalsim. Why does it still reign supreme? Anatole Kaletsky outlines the shape of things to come.

Have you ever heard the old adage about the danger of allowing foxes to guard the henhouse? Apparently the New York Fed hasn’t.

Perry and I extend our apologies for the unplanned hiatus. By way of breaking radio silence, it seems appropriate to check in on our two favorite banks.

Before reforming economics, we need to reform the discourse.

Rob Johnson appeared on the Background Briefing with Ian Masters to discuss working with Trumpsters, the source of their anguish, and important pathways to healing

Private equity firms have become major players in the healthcare industry. How has this happened and what are the results?

This paper argues that it is a mistake to dismiss secular demand stagnation as main cause of declining potential growth in the OECD.

This paper provides novel insights on the changing functional distribution of income in the post–war US economy.

Michael Sandel takes What Money Can’t Buy’s themes of markets and morals and applies them to an analysis of the rise of populism in the West.

Professor Tchen explores the many layers of “otherness” at work in America’s political economy

Past failures, present uncertainty, and a challenging political environment have vastly complicated the central bank’s task, says Institute President Rob Johnson

It is time for Greece to make a daring leap and adopt its own currency, says Ifo President Hans-Werner Sinn. “The drachma should be introduced immediately as a virtual currency,” Sinn said in Munich.

Chicago School founder Frank H. Knight had some prescient observations in the early 20th century.

What does America need?

How have the macroeconomic problems in the US blinded many participants and observers to the actual state of the American economy as the election approaches?

University of Cambridge professor and INET co-founder William Janeway discusses the crucial role that government has always played in generating technological innovation, how this role has been diminished in recent years, and the problems this lack of attention will cause for the US in the near future

“Panics are not needed for banking crises to have severe economic consequences,” says Emil Verner, the MIT professor who helped lead the study. “But when panics do occur, those tend to be the most severe episodes. Panics are an important amplification mechanism for banking crises, but not a necessary condition.” Indeed, in an ambitious piece of research, spanning 46 countries and going back to 1870, the study surveys banking crises that occurred with and without panics. When there is a panic and bank run, the research finds, a 30 percent decline in banking-sector equity predicts a 3.4 percent drop in real GDP (gross domestic product adjusted for inflation) after three years. But even without any creditor panic, a 30 percent decline in bank equity predicts a 2.7 percent drop in real GDP after three years.” — Peter Dizikes, MIT News

Peter Bofinger, an economist and former member of Germany’s Council of Economic Experts, talks to Rob about the economic crisis now facing Europe, how Modern Monetary Theory could address it, and how it differs from the Great Recession of 2008. Mentioned in the interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNgQRs8nY4chttps://www.socialeurope.eu/coronavirus-crisis-now-is-the-hour-of-modern-monetary-theory

If standard economic theory can’t explain a traffic jam, how can it cope with crises?

A conversation with Richard Vague, Managing Partner at Gabriel Investments and Chairman of the Governor’s Woods Foundation.

Stephen Kinsella has some advice for economists: “Sometimes, all you need is a nutter in a balloon to change your perspective. And perspective is everything.”

INET Executive Director Robert Johnson delivered a keynote address at the OECD Forum in Paristoday.

This research project develops a monograph on divergent stochastic time series that permits the modeling of capital, inventory, and financial capital in economies.

The market can’t save us.

NLSIU was the first National Law University established in India to pioneer legal education reforms. The University has remained a leader in the field of legal education in India for over 30 years. NLSIU has been consistently ranked No 1 in the National Institutional Ranking Framework since 2018 – the year when NIRF law rankings was introduced.

The Los Angeles Times

The education of the next generation of economists too often ignores the real crisis we face today: climate change, inequality, and financial instability.

Pari passu clauses were deliberately crafted to gain an upper hand in sovereign bankruptcy disputes brought to the London stock exchange’s jurisdiction

Expertise is broken. Trust is eroding. Enough is enough.

The geopolitical showdown between the United States and China is both inevitable, and avoidable.

Conventional wisdom has it that the primary function of the stock market is to raise cash for companies for the purpose of investing in productive capabilities. The conventional wisdom is wrong.

Access to finance was supposed to reduce inequality, and make us all better off. Why hasn’t that happened?

Support for populism is often attributed to xenophobia, racism, sexism; to anger and resentment at immigrants, racial or ethnic minorities, or “uppity” non-traditional women. According to these accounts , people who feel socially resentful may reject established politicians as favoring those “others” over people like themselves, and turn to outsider populistic leaders.

Especially in the wake of the Great Recession, calls for more diversity within economics are usually limited to appealing for greater diversity in the economists’ backgrounds, while diversity of opinion and approaches is often neglected.

Institute for New Economic Thinking President Robert Johnson, in an appearance of the CNN International show Quest Means Business, warns that the anger of Trump’s supporters is unlikely to ebb absent significant economic and political changes — and that this anger could be more successfully marshaled by a more skilled and sophisticated Republican challenger four years from now. 

Orville Schell, Director of the Asia Society’s Center on U.S.-China Relations, discussing his new book, “Wealth and Power: China’s Long March to the Twenty First Century.”

Shiller (1981) and others have shown that the quantitative predictions of the REH present-value model are inconsistent with time-series data on stock prices and dividends. In this paper, we assess the empirical relevance of the model without explicitly representing how a rational market participant forecasts dividends and interest rates.

The economics of religion is a relatively new field of research in economics. This survey serves two purposes – it is backward-looking in that it traces the historical and sociological origins of this field, and it is forward-looking in that it examines the insights and research themes that are offered by economists to investigate religion globally in the modern world.

There is a certain rich irony attached to the sight of corrupt Russian oligarchs now posing as liberal champions of the rule of law as they find themselves sucked into the maelstrom of Cyprus’s ongoing financial crisis.

Has the servant’s servant become the master’s master?

Understanding QE3

The first graph shows US financial flows over the past five years.

The Fed changed over the course of the global financial crisis.

The American economy changed rapidly in the last half-century. The National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) were designed before these changes started. They have stretched to accommodate new and growing service activities, but they are still organized for an industrial economy.

The financial crisis of 2008, and the subsequent worldwide economic depression and continuing dislocation, have made little to no impression on the way macroeconomics is taught at the university level, from Economics 101 through graduate school. It has been “business as usual’, which (it seems to me) means an almost studious avoidance of any attempt to acquire knowledge of how monetary economies actually work.

The inequality of income and wealth is one of the defining issues of our time, in terms of both its social and macroeconomic implications. In this article, I focus on the macroeconomic implications of inequality. In particular, it is possible to identify four themes on which there seems to be growing consensus among many economists especially in the various heterodox traditions, but also increasingly in the mainstream of the economics profession:

The principal threat to economic stability currently is the overhang of debt, both private and public.

“Now it’s maybe particularly an Indian phenomenon because of the strong lockdown we had last year, but I think across the world what we’re seeing in fact is that people are trapped in poverty because of the lack of employment opportunities, lack of income support, they’re increase in indebtedness, and their earnings remain depressed. So in that sense the news is extremely bad. Also, we’re seeing huge dislocations in the labor market itself. People who finally came into the formal labor force and had some sort of formal protections are now becoming informalized or worse as is the case with women in India, just leaving the labor force. When one asks for example social cohesion what can one say –it is devastating for any kind of view of an inclusive growth process where we’re trying to encourage many people into gainful employment and to actually see their welfare rise. Of course, financial vulnerabilities have risen many fold as a result of that. In addition, one ought to underline that this thing isn’t going away. Right now in India we’re in the second wave which is quite devastating. There are the very simple and awful thoughts of just basic mortality. What it’s going to do to you know many people’s indebtedness, their ability to earn incomes because this is not limited in India for example only to let’s say the relatively elderly but across the population distribution. I think we’re just at the beginning of trying to of seeing what it will do for social cohesion or destruction more likely. I think we had a mild wave last year and what we’re going to see this year as a result… we have yet to see but it will be bad.” — Arjun Jayadev

From the very start, the European Monetary Union (EMU) was set up to fail.

Did the so-called “Scandinavian approach” offer a better alternative than the Geithner plan?

Germany should not pay for the bankruptcy of Europe, at least according Hans-Werner Sinn, head of the Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.

The U.S., in aggregate, acts as a bank to the rest of the world. The precise role of that bank has evolved over the course of the crisis.

“Now, in a powerful work of synthesis, economist Lance Taylor, assisted by Özlem Ömer of Nevsehir Haci Bektas Veli University in Turkey, has brought a new perspective to the discussion. Taylor is a rare figure among economists nowadays. Previously a professor at two of the established citadels of mainstream economics, Harvard University and MIT, he has spent the past generation at the New School for Social Research in New York City, and is deeply engaged with the Institute for New Economic Thinking. … The overriding message from Taylor’s work is the exact opposite of “trickle-down economics.” Reducing inequality will increase economic growth and productivity. But, at the end of the day, there is no magic bullet to reverse the impact of the structural transformation of the past 50 years. That, too, was driven by policy initiatives, the full implications of which many policymakers are only just now beginning to comprehend.” — William Janeway

“When Texas and nine other states filed an antitrust lawsuit against Google last week, the complaint identified many of the same conflicts of interest as Ms. Srinivasan’s paper, Why Google Dominates Advertising Markets” in the Stanford Technology Law Review. The lawsuit said Google controlled every part of the digital advertising pipeline and used it to give priority to its own services, acting as “pitcher, batter and umpire, all at the same time.” … “Marshall Steinbaum, an assistant professor at the University of Utah’s economics department, wrote on Twitter that Ms. Srinivasan’s articles on Google and Facebook had a greater influence on the recently filed antitrust cases than all the other research about those companies or tech in general by traditional economists focused on competition policy.” — Daisuke Wakabayashi, New York Times

An expert panel will discuss the latest research on the experiences of workers facing volatility of their time and income, how this volatility impacts their financial outcomes over time, ways current policies help or hinder workers cope with labor market volatility, and other possibilities for change.

EMC brings together the thinkers and doers, with insights and inter-disciplinary perspectives on emerging markets. It is about cutting edge ideas, the discussion at the frontiers, and achieving a strategic sense.

Big data reveals where opportunity thrives—and where it vanishes—offering powerful tools to reverse the decline in economic mobility.

A new age virtual conference series in 2021 that aims to bring together legal, economic, and public policy thinkers to consider a variety of real world issues in India in a holistic manner.

Traditional economics, like the ethos of the “American Dream,” tells us that our individual talents and efforts determine whether or not we succeed in life. Yet, an overwhelming body of evidence shows that people of color have been denied the same opportunities to succeed in America. Race is not only a defining feature of social identity and an arbiter of access to power and privilege; for far too many Americans, race - a social construction - is a fundamental determinant of their economic destiny.

The deregulatory zeal of the 1990s and 2000s has returned to the US and the post-Brexit plans to protect the City in the UK sound like the pre-crash light-touch mentality that fueled global regulatory arbitrage.  As a result, a foremost “challenge of our time” is to stop “subsidizing more one-way bets” and “doubling down on failure.”

William White, chairman of the Economic Development and Review Committee (EDRC) at the OECD in Paris

In recent decades, advanced economies have experienced low and stable inflation and long periods of liquidity trap. We construct an alternative business-cycle model capturing these two features by adding two assumptions to a money-in-the-utility-function model: the labor market is subject to matching frictions, and real wealth enters the utility function. These assumptions modify the two core equations of the standard New Keynesian model

Things are going to break and central banks are going to have to respond, but the mental frame that most people will be using is not well suited for understanding how the world now works

Generosity or greed? The roots and fruits of venture capital might not be what you have been led to believe.

INET has chosen the label “openness” to describe New Economic Thinking - “open” for other disciplines, for other methods, for other questions, for other interpretations, etc. It’s easy to hurrah.

A persistent regime of low wages may determine very negative long-term consequences on the economy.

“Some authors argue that the German export success has nothing to do with wage or unit labour cost moderation and is instead due to the country’s high non-price competitiveness.” — Lucio Baccaro and Tobias Tober, LSE

We reveal a novel channel through which market participants’ sentiment influences how they forecast stock returns: their optimism (pessimism) affects the weights they assign to fundamentals.

Lance Taylor, Emeritus Professor of Economics at The New School for Social Research, delivers the annual Heilbroner Memorial Lecture on the Future of Capitalism.

A breakup of the Euro will be too difficult and costly for member countries.

A transition from the conventional policy of “redistributing income” to “redistributing membership”, could promote economic integration across communities and intergenerational mobility.

The main point of this paper is that loanable funds macroeconomic models with their “natural” interest rate don’t fit with modern institutions and data. Before getting into the numbers, it makes sense to describe the models and how to think about macroeconomics in the first place.

During the past year, there have been numerous and somber reflections, rather like those during a traditional period of mourning, about the great and tragic events that occurred just 100 years ago – the beginning of the First World War. And in the course of these melancholy reflections about the past, there naturally have arisen anxious concerns about the future.

This paper discusses the main issues about increasing inequality, whether it matters and its impact on economic activity and growth. It starts by briefly considering the empirical evidence of the share of income going to the top one percent since 1945 in the advanced countries. It then considers whether this represents an increase in the productivity of the top one percent or merely an extraction of economic rent.

INET is very happy to congratulate this year’s winners of the Nobel Prize in Economics: Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, and James Robinson.