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Has the Dodd-Frank Act had its intended effect?

YSI Philosophy of Economics working group is organising a workshop preceding the INEM conference.

In this “New Economic Thinking” interview, EBRD Chief Economist and Special Adviser to the President Erik Berglof, who also is a member of the Institute for New Economic Thinking’s Governing Board, discusses the report’s findings with Institute President Rob Johnson.

There are a lot of universities represented here, but who are the most likely candidates for participation and who might one expect INET to be interested in?

Yanis Varoufakis and Joseph Stiglitz discuss Greece’s financial challenges and the associated Eurozone politics in this exclusive conversation.

A structural transformation is investing labour in Europe, accelerated by the crisis started in 2008. Job destruction is dominating employment trends in most EU countries and deep changes are taking place in labour relations, labour market institutions and wage regimes.

There is widespread and growing concern about the availability of good jobs in the U.S. economy. Inequality has been growing for thirty years and is now at levels not seen since the 1920s. Stable and remunerative employment has become harder for U.S. workers to find.

The concentration of innovation in a handful of urban centers engenders large and persistent regional disparities in economic opportunity.

In persisting with its high rates policy, the Fed is acting like James Dean in the famous “chicken run” auto race in Rebel Without a Cause.

Institute for New Economic Thinking-backed research into inequality explores how taxes and government policy have contributed to deepening economic inequality   

Eric Beinhocker and Tony Dolphin argue that lasting reform to the financial sector will not be achieved without tackling the price rigging and anti-competitive behaviour that is rife in the industry.

In a recent piece in the Financial Times, George Soros makes the case that, to avoid a bleak future for the euro and the European Union in general, Europe should take steps to recapitalize banks before bailing out member states. In the piece, Soros discusses issues that INET is very interested in exploring further, such as the idea that flaws in macroeconomic theory helped lead to the financial crisis of 2008.

A Seminar of the Institute for New Economic Thinking, by Maria Cristina Marcuzo

In a show of good faith between two rising economic powers, China and Brazil have agreed to a bilateral currency swap.

This research project examines the long process of innovation at Fair Isaac, the analytics firm behind the FICO scoring system.

In his latest annual address at Cass Business School, Visiting Professor Lord Adair Turner warned that the world is caught in a ‘debt overhang’.

Note: As of March 2019, the Imperfect Knowledge Economics(IKE) Program has been re-launched as the INET Program on Knightian Uncertainty Economics (KUE). Please see the KUE page for updates on this body of work.

Should the government regulate personal behavior, or are the irrational choices of people actually reasonable?

Charles Goodhart, professor emeritus of the financial markets group at the London School of Economics, and Manoj Pradhan, founder of the research firm Talking Heads Macro, talk to Rob about their just released book, The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival

We propose several multivariate variance ratio statistics. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the statistics and scalar functions thereof under the null hypothesis that returns are unpredictable after a constant mean adjustment (i.e., under the weak form Efficient Market Hypothesis). We do not impose the no leverage assumption of Lo and MacKinlay (1988) but our asymptotic standard errors are relatively simple and in particular do not require the selection of a bandwidth parameter. We extend the framework to allow for a time varying risk premium through common systematic factors.

Presented at the inaugural Conference at King’s College

The Gender Pay Gap: Micro Sources and Macro Consequences

This paper analyzes regional contributions to the US payroll share from 1977 to 2017 and the four major business cycles throughout this period.

Some Fundamental Keynesian and Post-Keynesian Insights, with an Analysis of Possible Mechanisms to Achieve a Sustained Recovery

This chapter surveys experimental research on networks in economics.

At a G20 preparatory meeting in Berlin, an INET panel analyzed how governments can prevent banks from exploiting taxpayer-funded bailout guarantees

Contrary to common belief, this shift is not so much caused by the refugee crisis, but rather by the historical disaster that followed the big financial crisis since 2007.

What is the real reason Democratic party leaders go along with the debt ceiling ritual?

If the public is to be called upon for the second time in twelve years to bail out businesses, it should get something back for its money. Bailed out firms should be compelled to issue convertible bonds to the government.

From a money view perspective, the central issue is settlement of TARGET balances between national central banks within the Eurozone, and the key is to understand TARGET balances as a kind of interbank correspondent balance.

A presentation from The Economics of Post-Factual Democracy, the first annual conference of The Center for Information and Bubble Studies (CIBS) at The University of Copenhagen

This research project continues the work of the University of Texas Inequality Project, developing new data and research in several technical areas.

This research project develops a model of foreign exchange markets in which agents’ expectations are explicitly modeled and evolve over time and examines how these models perform in terms of capturing the behavior observed in the experiments with human subjects.

This research project focuses on the effect of the technological changes that led to the British Industrial Revolution in the eighteenth century on the market for skilled workers.

On the passing away of Luigi Pasinetti

The Turnaround in the Polls For the Democrats in the Key Swing States of Michigan, Wisconsin and PennsylvanIa

What will empower a worker to be able to make greater demands on a profitable economy or employer? The answer may be summed up in one word: leverage.

The popular discontent and rise of ‘populist’ political parties is closely related to the failure of New Labor to navigate social democracy’s dilemma.

This paper considers the ambition, scale, substance and strategy of the European Union’s Green Deal

This paper presents an experiment investigating the effect of social identity on hiring decisions. The question is whether people discriminate between own and other group candidate

Two separate narratives have emerged in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis. One interpretation speaks of private financial excess and the key role of the banking system in leveraging and deleveraging the economy. The other emphasizes the public sector balance sheet over the private and worries about the risks of lax fiscal policies. However, the two may interact in important and understudied ways.

Can finance stop hindering and start helping the green transition?

The rising crescendo of bickering and acrimony within Europe might seem to outsiders to be the inevitable result of the bitter endgame playing out between Greece and its creditors. In fact, European leaders are finally beginning to reveal the true nature of the ongoing debt dispute, and the answer is not pleasant: it is about power and democracy much more than money and economics.

How to guide innovative AI efforts to increase labor demand and create better-paying jobs?

Pharmaceutical pushers like Purdue “couldn’t have done their dirty work” without America’s increasingly unbalanced economy

New evidence shows personal wealth interests drive Congressional votes

By suppressing important questions in favor of being cheerleaders for globalization, economists failed to influence the public conversation

“Last year, Weil and his former top adviser, Tanya Goldman, spoke with Law360 about their “concentric circles” model, laid out in a recent working paper published by the Institute for New Economic Thinking. They propose a three-tiered system that starts with a set of core rights linked to all types of work, like basic protections against unsafe conditions, discrimination and harassment, and nonpayment. The second tier of rights includes things like collective bargaining, and access to workers’ compensation and unemployment insurance, which businesses would have to provide unless they could affirmatively prove that their workers aren’t employees. The outermost tier of rights seeks to make benefits portable for workers facing uncertainty.” — Mike LaSusa, Law 360

New research points to critical role of public funding in drug discoveries and development for the last decade

Ed Pavlić discusses the role of music in communicating suffering and resistance in the African-American experience

The Implications of Xi’s Belt and Road Initiative for China and the World Economy

This research project studies the drivers of technology adoption as well as the consequences of the dynamics of technology adoption for economic growth.

Robert Pollin challenges the myth that climate action hurts working people—and explains why a just transition must be at the heart of a global Green New Deal.

We need a new approach to research—one rooted in trust, lived experience, and the stories data often overlooks.

Scientific American

This essay deals with the contradictory dynamics that engulfed Europe from 1959 to 1979, the year of the launching of the European Monetary System.

Rising inequality has focused attention on the benefits of new technologies. Do these accrue primarily to inventors, early investors, and highly skilled users, or to society more widely as their adoption generates employment growth?

Riots, lynchings and other forms of violence dramatically disproportionate impact on the lives and prospects of African inventors. That’s just one indicator, says Professor Lisa Cook, of the profound impact of racial violence on the economic structure

In “The Ambivalence of Scarcity” which is my contribution to L’Enfer des choses. René Girard et la logique de l’économie, written by Jean-Pierre Dupuy and originally published in French in 1978, I attempt to apply mimetic theory to modern economics and to economicphenomena, and also to explain why economic issues and economics as a discipline occupy such an important place in the modern world.

Theoretical dogmas that are literally blind to the causes of the racism that determines the economic fates of most African-Americans leaves the economics profession unable to comprehend or recognize remedies for a key driver of America’s crippling inequality. Instead, conventional economic models unmindfully shape policies that actually exacerbate racial conflict.

The TPP is dead, as is the assumption that future free-trade agreements can be negotiated by experts alone

From the Archives: In the wake of the Bear Stearns bailout in 2008, INET Research Director Tom Ferguson and President Rob Johnson say taxpayers rescuing banks are owed their due: “If the public is going to pay for [bailouts]… it should also get paid back for them.”

Economist James K. Galbraith warns that ‘unrealistic expectations’ by Athens’ creditors is a recipe for turmoil

Recovery from recessions takes longer than it has in the past.

The White House cited Ledley’s INET working paper on the NIH’s seed funding of FDA approved pharmaceuticals in their fact sheet on new actions to lower health care and prescription drug costs.

This paper examines the relationship between placement of publications in Top Five (T5) journals and receipt of tenure in academic economics departments.

As the financial economy has expanded beginning in the mid-1980s, it has done so in part by selling more products to individuals and households.

This paper presents a theory of pseudo-wealth in a model that displays aggregate demand externalities.

We analyse the link between income distribution and the current account for the period 1972-2007. We find that rising (top-end) personal inequality leads to a decrease of the current account, ceteris paribus.

There’s more to the census than demographics.

Entangling alliances or entangling leagues are nothing to the entanglements of cash owing—Keynes

I was just amused with two projects by Shaun Usher: to “gather and sort fascinating letters, postcards, telegrams, faxes, and memos” in his blog Letters of Note, and to present interesting letterheads in his Letterheadyblog.

Thirty Years of Indian Economic Reforms: Assessing the Growth and Development of Kerala

On my way back home from the Brandenburger Tor, I recalled that I already have been there, it must have been in 1988.

By 1812 the U.S. already had more business corporations than any other country and possibly more than all other countries combined.

Lance Taylor responds to Andrew Smithers’s comment on his INET working paper, “Germany and China Have Savings Gluts, the USA Is a Sump: So What?”

How Gerald Friedman’s assessment of Bernie Sanders economic proposals prompted a rare public political spat among economists.

There has been an important movement towards making available on the web a host of open courses.

Bank failures don’t threaten most deposits, but they do threaten jobs

Amid the ongoing research interest in questions of inequality, it is important to examine the question of access to housing — and how that has changed over the decades. The specific question I have sought to answer, here, is whether the real cost (measured against income) of buying the average home has risen.

The current bout of exchange rate anxiety is really just a symptom of the fact that China’s transition from an export-led growth strategy to one propelled by domestic consumption is proceeding far less smoothly than hoped.

Painting economics as blind to inequality may be overstating matters, but for too long efforts to explain it have been self limiting. Now, new economic thinkers are willing to pose uncomfortable questions.

Young Scholars based in Latin America are invited to convene in Buenos Aires. The event serves to strengthen the Latin American network of new economic thinkers pursuing a new economic paradigm. Attendees will be able to enjoy several partner events during the same week.

The Political Movement That Dared Not Speak its Own Name: The Neoliberal Thought Collective Under Erasure Philip Mirowski [Institute for New Economic Thinking, August 2014] ….consider the question: how should we approach the construction of a reliable history of a group of intellectuals who have managed to turn their meditations into a political movement on a global scale? Of course this raises timeworn problems of the relationship between theory and practice; but the Neoliberal case sports a further thorny complication: while we can fairly comprehensively identify the roster of whom should be acknowledged as a part of the movement, at least from its beginnings in the 1930s until the recent past, we are confronted with the fact that, in public, they themselves roundly deny the existence of any such well-defined thought collective, and stridently denounce the label of Neoliberalism. Not only do they wash their hands of most of the documented activities of the Neoliberal Thought Collective – think of Hayek and Friedman and their denials concerning the Pinochet interlude in Chile— but their plaint is that their opponents the socialists have always gotten the better of them, and thus their political project has never enjoyed any real successes, ever, anywhere, contrary to all evidence brought to the table. They are forever the bridesmaid of conservative parties, never the bride, to hear them tell it. Given the sheer numbers of people involved, and the really astronomical sums of money, and the cultural dominance of the airwaves, this sad sack victimhood is really quite remarkable, and itself calls for serious examination. Perhaps it has something to do with the fact that a political movement that dare not speak its own name has intellectual contradictions that it dare not air openly.

How will climate change influence economic sustainability?

The YSI Africa Working Group is convening in Bologna, Italy in conjunction with the 13th Annual Meeting of the African Economic History Network. Our meeting in Bologna follows what promises to be a successful convention in August 2018 at the YSI Africa Convening in Harare, Zimbabwe. The YSI Africa Working Group is committed to continuing important conversations about how economic history can contribute to the study of development of Africa. We are particularly interested in thinking about the types of new approaches to the study of economics and economic history.

“Right after the CDC made this announcement, the president of the American Federation of Teachers, Randi Weingarten, sent a letter to the Biden administration, citing a study by the Institute for Economic Thinking. … The authors of the study are Dr. Deepti Gurdasani, who did much of the research for the study and is a clinical epidemiologist and statistical geneticist and senior lecturer at the William Harvey Research Institute in London; Dr. Phillip Alveldi, CEO and chairman of Brain Works Foundry Inc, a U.S.-based developer of artificial intelligence-enhanced health care technologies and services; and Thomas Ferguson, the director of research projects for the Institute for New Economic Thinking.” — Dennis Donohue, Santa Fe New Mexican

“in addition to the author’s interpretations, there will also be a considerable list of texts and contributions that can be useful for approaching and deepening the economic debate and the developments of the alternative and post-Keynesian theoretical approach, even in its various currents. . The not obvious presence in the public debate of these topics makes the book an important reading in order to interpret the recent economic history of our country starting from the questions that the crisis triggered by the outbreak of the pandemic and the recipes prepared by the European and national institutions pose us. , of which however no shadow is seen in political decisions, having an interpretative key that escapes the mainstream logic is, even more so in this context, of crucial importance.” — Davide Romaniello, Sinistrainrete

“In his speech, Xi pledged to uphold support for the Greater Bay Area initiative, and the Shenzhen plan includes specific measures to create employment and housing opportunities for Hong Kong’s young people. Driving forward the development of an economy as large and complex as China’s is a monumental feat in the best of times – not least because there are no models to emulate. Amid hostile external conditions, the challenge is even greater. But with the Shenzhen plan – and the broader adaptation and implementation of the city’s successful reforms – China may well be able to meet it.” - INET Expert Andrew Sheng, member of Commission on Global Economic Transformation

Rather than continue to narrow the field, economists need to ask what they’re missing

The financial system no longer funds new ideas and projects — only about 15 percent of the money coming out of financial institutions goes into business investment; the rest is spent buying and selling existing financial instruments.

How do economists make their models work? By assuming that investors have rational expectations and that every market participant is alike. However, things quickly get messy once economists start to acknowledge that people are different, interact with each other, and change heuristic forecasting strategies based on recent performance.

This research project re-examines the debates around the time of the Great Depression and compares them with those before and since the start of the Long Recession in 2007/8, focusing on Keynes, Hayek, and their followers.

This research project develops tools that allow social scientists to understand how and when social factors, such as peer influences, role models, or norms, affect individual choices.

This research project incorporates recent US data to update empirical analyses of regional growth and utilizes case study strategies of American regions to investigate the underlying causal mechanisms of inequality.

This research project documents long-run trends in personal bankruptcy, with special emphasis on the use of the bankruptcy law at the local level and among women.