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Further Thoughts

GFC finance as war finance

Until 2008, rising home values gave the middle class a cushion amid growing income inequality. But following the financial crisis, that wealth has failed to return.

The effect of monetary policy on the functional distribution of income

In China, the government uses the purses strings of state-owned enterprises to control social unrest

Extract from the keynote speech by the Rev. Dr. William Barber III at the Institute for New Economic Thinking conference on race and economics in Detroit on November 11

I cannot resist but to start quoting Mary Morgan’s second entry to the second edition of the New Palgrave: “Modeling became the dominant methodology of economics during the 20th century.”

Saving the (International) Dollar

Faced with a shrinking list of options to trim the budget, Republicans are now eyeing Medicaid - but will that fly among Trump supporters?

Discussion of the results of the ECB’s LTRO2 has revolved around the question of hoarding, specifically whether banks are using the newly-created reserves to fund new lending.

US counties with prison labor often have lower wage and employment growth

As Chair of the Senate Budget Committee, Bernie Sanders can force votes on Medicare for All and cuts to the military budget. He will face opposition from the GOP and within the Democratic Party. Rob Johnson was a Senior Economist for the Budget Committee and Chief Economist for the Senate Banking Committee. He joins Paul Jay on theAnalysis.news podcast.

The Eurocrisis has many dimensions—bank solvency crisis, sovereign debt crisis, political unity crisis, and economic/unemployment crisis—but time after time it has been the liquidity crisis dimension driving events, and ECB response to the liquidity crisis driving institutional evolution. The reason is simple. Liquidity kills you quick.

A week ago, Mark Carney, chairman of the Financial Stability Board, warned of emerging global consequences of the escalating eurozone crisis.

Grand Bargain at last?

Exit Strategies and the New Normal

Before the dollar there was the pound, and after the dollar there will be something else.

Why Pushing on a String Has Never Worked

Affordability of electricity and concerns about fossil fuel pollution, water resources, and job loss, have driven a rebellion against data centers that is both grassroots and bipartisan. It’s time for cleaner, faster and cheaper solutions.

Why did so many Dutch voters vote for the far-right Geert Wilders?

Many Americans have expressed outrage over Pfizer’s plan, through its merger with Allergan, to move its tax home from the United States to Ireland. Now, in a New York Times op-ed, Carl Icahn, the billionaire corporate raider turned hedge fund activist, has joined the chorus. He labels the Pfizer-Allergan deal a “travesty,” blaming the U.S.’s “uncompetitive international tax system.”

There needs to be a safe place for businesses to place their reserves and working capital

Amid debates over costs—and profits—from a coronavirus vaccine, a new study shows that taxpayers have been footing the bill for every new drug approved between 2010 and 2019

The (very) recent rise of quantitative analysis in history of economics working papers calls for a closer examination of the prospects and limitations of this approach, and of the impediment to its large-scale development.

Rana Dasgupta shares his view of the contradictions and tensions of India’s economic and political scenes.

These days, one hears worries of impending inflation.

The Private Debt initiative is an opportunity to articulate how private debt impacts the economy and to specify the pathways for its effects. The initiative will also lead to better knowledge for the use of regulators, policymakers, journalists, and the public. Finally, the Private Debt initiative will open a better-informed dialogue towards tangible solutions to the problems posed by excessive private debt.

The fact of the matter is that European bank funding markets are collapsing onto the ECB balance sheet.

Why is the IMF getting involved in the Eurocrisis, and why is its involvement taking the form of lending to individual member states of the Eurozone?

Sense about Social Security

The illusion of black swan-proofing

Hope for mitigating climate catastrophe may not be lost, but the scale of political change needed is no cause for optimism

The world is on edge at the prospect of a resurgent wave of infections. Models and speculation are rife, but facts remain scarce, which is why the events in Wisconsin on April 7, and their eventual impact, are so important.

Research funded by the Institute for New Economic Thinking has revealed that the SEC reports executive compensation using a formula that routinely undercounts it

When the stock market grows faster than the housing market, the gains of the top 1% outpace those of the middle class

Assessing the Peculiarities of Economics from Two Scientometric Perspectives

In the past decade, the volume of literature in the history of economics has been of 500 articles and just under 50 books a year. The graph below traces the count in two year intervals (articles left axis, books right axis). The absolute volume is stable but given the growth of economic literature in the period, stable might be rebranded as static.

Having just started Findlay and O’Rourke’s mammoth history of world trade in the second millenia, I have been struck by a strange incongruity

American Prospect editor Robert Kuttner talks about how the faith in Democracy and in the state have suffered tremendously over the past two decades, how it can be restored, and what impact this loss of faith will have on the Biden presidency

New INET research shows once again that it’s large firms and the 1%—not the “median voter”—who drive U.S. policy

Bernanke and Blanchard have made another failed attempt to salvage establishment macroeconomics after the massive onslaught of adverse inflationary circumstances with which it could evidently not contend.

Incomes Destroyed at the Bottom, Profits Supported at the Top

With the publication of Thomas Piketty’s Capital in the 21st Century, the American public has become increasingly concerned about the scale and impact of inequality in economic life.

FT Alphaville has picked up on my friend James Sweeney’s latest, and since James cites the latest writings by other friends Zoltan Pozsar, Manmohan Singh, as well as my own most recent, the piece reads like a discussant’s comments on a shadow banking symposium.

A Money View

(Way) Beyond Diamond-Dybvig

And the nominees for Best Documentary are…

Today’s Financial Times article: Report to highlight alleged conflicts of interest in Goldman’s dealings (Jan 12, 2011), Goldman’s pieties insult our intelligence (Jan 13, 2011)

It is all about promises to pay in the future.

A Bank for International Settlements study says 60+ trillion dollars of off-the-books currency swaps could be a profound, systematic risk. Robert Johnson joins Paul Jay on theAnalysis.news.

The new IPCC Report is overly optimistic about global productivity growth and fossil fuel energy use. More dramatic, immediate action is needed

Political meritocracy is the idea that a political system is designed with the aim of selecting political leaders with above average ability to make morally informed political judgments. That is, political meritocracy has two key components: (1) the political leaders have above average ability and virtue and (2) the selection mechanism is designed to choose such leaders.

Ten years after the crisis, financial regulation leaves taxpayers holding the bag for banks’ safety net.

UMass Amherst professor and PERI Co-Director Robert Pollin discusses his latest book that he co-authored with Noam Chomsky, about the Global Green New Deal and the opportunities and challenges that lie ahead in addressing the climate crisis

This paper discusses household debt as a long term phenomenon that influences economies beyond crises.1 In other words, rather than look at how household indebtedness can lead to crises, I will focus on its surprising persistence at very high levels, and its interactions along the way with other key variables, such as public policies and spending. The first section describes some stylized facts and the final section explores the macroeconomic consequences.

The following is based on Chapter 1 of my forthcoming book, Crisis and Sustainability. The Delusion of Free Markets.

INET researchers have continued their innovative work and are finding larger platforms and eager audiences for it.

Medicare Needs a Perspective on “Collective and Cumulative Learning” in Inflation Reduction Act Negotiations

What we’re reading: A weekly scan of published items relevant to the Institute’s work

How does debt influence growth?

New Thinking about Modigliani-Miller

War Reparations, or Prosperity

Capital Flows, Cross-border Banking, Shadow Banking, and the Dollar

A money view of the commodity bubble

Speculation, stabilizing or destabilizing?

Who’s afraid of finance?

When the survival constraint bites

The YSI Financial Stability Working Group will explore the changing nature of banking regulation. The series will look into the history of the Basel regulations, how they are conceived, and the challenges that are posed in their implementation.

In the global super election year of 2024, populists are threatening to experience a new upswing almost everywhere – whether in the USA, the EU or in East Germany. What makes so many citizens so dissatisfied? What could help win people back and restore their trust in liberal democracy?

Against the backdrop of frequent calls for debt cancellation and reorganization, the Private Debt Initiative of the Institute for New Economic Thinking is convening a conference on “Debt Restructuring” in New York City on Thursday, February 3rd and Friday February 4th, 2022, hosted by Richard Vague (Secretary of Banking and Securities, Commonwealth of Pennsylvania), Rob Johnson (INET President), and Moritz Shularick (INET Fellow).

The text below is the comment I offered on Mr. Soros’ opening speech at INET’s Berlin Conference April 12, 2012. The text of Mr. Soros’ own speech is here. Video of the entire session is below—my bit starts at 55:00.

Clear rules and sound principles for debt restructuring would level the playing field between developing countries and creditors

In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, few would dispute the risks of excessive borrowing. But which debts should one worry about – public or private? This column presents new research on the interplay of public and private debts since 1870 in 17 advanced economies. History demonstrates that excessive private-sector borrowing plays a greater role than fiscal profligacy in generating financial instability. However, when the credit boom collapses, the government’s capacity to alleviate the downturn is limited by the prevailing level of public debt.

In the papers of economist Charles Kindleberger, Perry Mehrling found notes on the paper that won Ben Bernanke his Nobel Prize.

I don’t seem to be able to fully grasp Mark Blaug’s distinction between a relativist and an absolutist approach to the history of economics – first introduced in Economic Theory in Retrospect (1962) – and that is a source of much frustration.

It is an attitude typical of conventional economists that sees the claim to qualify as technicians who deal with “social engineering”, on the basis of a “true” economic theory. Disrespectful of the epistemological (i.e. research methods) and even ontological principles (concerning the conception of the world). — Riccardo D’Orsi, Econopoly …. Citation: Lawson, T. (2010). Really Reorienting Modern Economics . Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET), April 10.

For more than three decades, orthodox economists, policy makers in government and central bankers and their economic advisors, using some variant of old classical economic theory [OCET], have insisted that (1) government regulations of markets and large government spending policies are the cause of all our economic problems and (2) ending big government and freeing markets, especially financial markets, from government regulatory controls is the solutionto our economic problems, domestically and internationally.

An animated look at economic history with Robert Skidelsky

If we are to work toward a better future, we must look beyond the surface, and understand the multifaceted reality of China’s ascent in the global arena.

An alternative to Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models

MIT economic historian Peter Temin discusses his new INET-CUP book, Never Together: The Economic History of a Segregated America, in which he shows how efforts to bridge the gap between races were always undermined, resulting in constant economic hardship for Black people.

A Bank for International Settlements study says 60+ trillion dollars of off-the-books currency swaps could be a profound, systematic risk. Rob Johnson joins Paul Jay on theAnalysis.news.

A critique of Mankiw’s Macroeconomics

Do the benefits of new technologies accrue primarily to inventors, early investors, and highly skilled users, or to society more widely as their adoption generates employment growth?

Once again, an out-of-control industry is threatening public health on a mammoth scale

A British national of Bengali origin, novelist Rana Dasgupta recently turned to nonfiction to explore the explosive social and economic changes in Delhi starting in 1991, when India launched a series of profoundly transformative economic reforms.

“A recent study by the Institute for New Economic Thinking, painting a wider picture, shows that the effective reduction in emissions due to carbon pricing policy comes to between just 1 and 2.5 percent of the total.” — Ornaldo Gjergji, Osservatorio

What it will mean for the U. S. economy to go over the “fiscal cliff.”?

The discussants will illuminate the findings and wisdom in Montek S. Ahluwalia’s book BackStage: The Story Behind India’s High Growth Years (2019) and then explore the challenges for the developing world and Asian geopolitics.

The practical question in Washington today is not whether regulations will go, but whether anything will replace them

If Congress and the White House fail to raise the debt ceiling this week and the United States defaults on its debt, what can we expect and how can we protect ourselves against these events?

“The economists Òscar Jordà, Moritz Schularick, and Alan Taylor studied the sensitivity of house prices to interest rates across 14 countries and 140 years of history. They found that a 1 per cent rise in interest rates reduces the ratio of house prices to incomes by about 4 per cent. In New Zealand, for example, that ratio has risen by about half in a decade, implying a double-digit rise in interest rates to stabilise it.” — Robin Harding, FT