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Orville Schell, Director of the Asia Society’s Center on U.S.-China Relations, discussing his new book, “Wealth and Power: China’s Long March to the Twenty First Century.”

Shiller (1981) and others have shown that the quantitative predictions of the REH present-value model are inconsistent with time-series data on stock prices and dividends. In this paper, we assess the empirical relevance of the model without explicitly representing how a rational market participant forecasts dividends and interest rates.

The economics of religion is a relatively new field of research in economics. This survey serves two purposes – it is backward-looking in that it traces the historical and sociological origins of this field, and it is forward-looking in that it examines the insights and research themes that are offered by economists to investigate religion globally in the modern world.

There is a certain rich irony attached to the sight of corrupt Russian oligarchs now posing as liberal champions of the rule of law as they find themselves sucked into the maelstrom of Cyprus’s ongoing financial crisis.

Has the servant’s servant become the master’s master?

Understanding QE3

The first graph shows US financial flows over the past five years.

The Fed changed over the course of the global financial crisis.

The American economy changed rapidly in the last half-century. The National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) were designed before these changes started. They have stretched to accommodate new and growing service activities, but they are still organized for an industrial economy.

The financial crisis of 2008, and the subsequent worldwide economic depression and continuing dislocation, have made little to no impression on the way macroeconomics is taught at the university level, from Economics 101 through graduate school. It has been “business as usual’, which (it seems to me) means an almost studious avoidance of any attempt to acquire knowledge of how monetary economies actually work.

The inequality of income and wealth is one of the defining issues of our time, in terms of both its social and macroeconomic implications. In this article, I focus on the macroeconomic implications of inequality. In particular, it is possible to identify four themes on which there seems to be growing consensus among many economists especially in the various heterodox traditions, but also increasingly in the mainstream of the economics profession:

The principal threat to economic stability currently is the overhang of debt, both private and public.

“Now it’s maybe particularly an Indian phenomenon because of the strong lockdown we had last year, but I think across the world what we’re seeing in fact is that people are trapped in poverty because of the lack of employment opportunities, lack of income support, they’re increase in indebtedness, and their earnings remain depressed. So in that sense the news is extremely bad. Also, we’re seeing huge dislocations in the labor market itself. People who finally came into the formal labor force and had some sort of formal protections are now becoming informalized or worse as is the case with women in India, just leaving the labor force. When one asks for example social cohesion what can one say –it is devastating for any kind of view of an inclusive growth process where we’re trying to encourage many people into gainful employment and to actually see their welfare rise. Of course, financial vulnerabilities have risen many fold as a result of that. In addition, one ought to underline that this thing isn’t going away. Right now in India we’re in the second wave which is quite devastating. There are the very simple and awful thoughts of just basic mortality. What it’s going to do to you know many people’s indebtedness, their ability to earn incomes because this is not limited in India for example only to let’s say the relatively elderly but across the population distribution. I think we’re just at the beginning of trying to of seeing what it will do for social cohesion or destruction more likely. I think we had a mild wave last year and what we’re going to see this year as a result… we have yet to see but it will be bad.” — Arjun Jayadev

From the very start, the European Monetary Union (EMU) was set up to fail.

Did the so-called “Scandinavian approach” offer a better alternative than the Geithner plan?

Germany should not pay for the bankruptcy of Europe, at least according Hans-Werner Sinn, head of the Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.

Fundamentally, the ECB is trying to keep the ongoing sovereign debt crisis from turning into a full-fledged bank credit crisis.

The ECB has always been the protagonist of the eurozone crisis story.

The U.S., in aggregate, acts as a bank to the rest of the world. The precise role of that bank has evolved over the course of the crisis.

“Now, in a powerful work of synthesis, economist Lance Taylor, assisted by Özlem Ömer of Nevsehir Haci Bektas Veli University in Turkey, has brought a new perspective to the discussion. Taylor is a rare figure among economists nowadays. Previously a professor at two of the established citadels of mainstream economics, Harvard University and MIT, he has spent the past generation at the New School for Social Research in New York City, and is deeply engaged with the Institute for New Economic Thinking. … The overriding message from Taylor’s work is the exact opposite of “trickle-down economics.” Reducing inequality will increase economic growth and productivity. But, at the end of the day, there is no magic bullet to reverse the impact of the structural transformation of the past 50 years. That, too, was driven by policy initiatives, the full implications of which many policymakers are only just now beginning to comprehend.” — William Janeway

“When Texas and nine other states filed an antitrust lawsuit against Google last week, the complaint identified many of the same conflicts of interest as Ms. Srinivasan’s paper, Why Google Dominates Advertising Markets” in the Stanford Technology Law Review. The lawsuit said Google controlled every part of the digital advertising pipeline and used it to give priority to its own services, acting as “pitcher, batter and umpire, all at the same time.” … “Marshall Steinbaum, an assistant professor at the University of Utah’s economics department, wrote on Twitter that Ms. Srinivasan’s articles on Google and Facebook had a greater influence on the recently filed antitrust cases than all the other research about those companies or tech in general by traditional economists focused on competition policy.” — Daisuke Wakabayashi, New York Times

Adair Lord Turner, former Chairman of Great Britain’s Financial Services Authority and current Senior Fellow at the Institute for New Economic Thinking, argued in a keynote address to the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago on Thursday that central banks must be equipped in future to address the dangers of excessive private sector leverage, using both pre-emptive interest rate policy and macro-prudential policy tools.

An expert panel will discuss the latest research on the experiences of workers facing volatility of their time and income, how this volatility impacts their financial outcomes over time, ways current policies help or hinder workers cope with labor market volatility, and other possibilities for change.

EMC brings together the thinkers and doers, with insights and inter-disciplinary perspectives on emerging markets. It is about cutting edge ideas, the discussion at the frontiers, and achieving a strategic sense.

Big data reveals where opportunity thrives—and where it vanishes—offering powerful tools to reverse the decline in economic mobility.

A new age virtual conference series in 2021 that aims to bring together legal, economic, and public policy thinkers to consider a variety of real world issues in India in a holistic manner.

Traditional economics, like the ethos of the “American Dream,” tells us that our individual talents and efforts determine whether or not we succeed in life. Yet, an overwhelming body of evidence shows that people of color have been denied the same opportunities to succeed in America. Race is not only a defining feature of social identity and an arbiter of access to power and privilege; for far too many Americans, race - a social construction - is a fundamental determinant of their economic destiny.

The deregulatory zeal of the 1990s and 2000s has returned to the US and the post-Brexit plans to protect the City in the UK sound like the pre-crash light-touch mentality that fueled global regulatory arbitrage.  As a result, a foremost “challenge of our time” is to stop “subsidizing more one-way bets” and “doubling down on failure.”

William White, chairman of the Economic Development and Review Committee (EDRC) at the OECD in Paris

In recent decades, advanced economies have experienced low and stable inflation and long periods of liquidity trap. We construct an alternative business-cycle model capturing these two features by adding two assumptions to a money-in-the-utility-function model: the labor market is subject to matching frictions, and real wealth enters the utility function. These assumptions modify the two core equations of the standard New Keynesian model

Things are going to break and central banks are going to have to respond, but the mental frame that most people will be using is not well suited for understanding how the world now works

Generosity or greed? The roots and fruits of venture capital might not be what you have been led to believe.

INET has chosen the label “openness” to describe New Economic Thinking - “open” for other disciplines, for other methods, for other questions, for other interpretations, etc. It’s easy to hurrah.

Lower Income Towns in New Hampshire Voted Heavily for Sanders; Richer Towns Did the Opposite.

A persistent regime of low wages may determine very negative long-term consequences on the economy.

“Some authors argue that the German export success has nothing to do with wage or unit labour cost moderation and is instead due to the country’s high non-price competitiveness.” — Lucio Baccaro and Tobias Tober, LSE

We reveal a novel channel through which market participants’ sentiment influences how they forecast stock returns: their optimism (pessimism) affects the weights they assign to fundamentals.

Lance Taylor, Emeritus Professor of Economics at The New School for Social Research, delivers the annual Heilbroner Memorial Lecture on the Future of Capitalism.

A breakup of the Euro will be too difficult and costly for member countries.

A transition from the conventional policy of “redistributing income” to “redistributing membership”, could promote economic integration across communities and intergenerational mobility.

The main point of this paper is that loanable funds macroeconomic models with their “natural” interest rate don’t fit with modern institutions and data. Before getting into the numbers, it makes sense to describe the models and how to think about macroeconomics in the first place.

Albeit the majority of the profession either ignores Minskyís Financial Instability Hypothesis (FIH) or considers it plainly wrong, at least since the mid-80’s a few influential economists —who have certainly not embraced any unorthodoxcredo —have grown more receptive to this idea and eager to incorporate it in their models, even if diluted and sometimes disguised in order to make it more palatable to the conventional “representative” macroeconomist

During the past year, there have been numerous and somber reflections, rather like those during a traditional period of mourning, about the great and tragic events that occurred just 100 years ago – the beginning of the First World War. And in the course of these melancholy reflections about the past, there naturally have arisen anxious concerns about the future.

This paper discusses the main issues about increasing inequality, whether it matters and its impact on economic activity and growth. It starts by briefly considering the empirical evidence of the share of income going to the top one percent since 1945 in the advanced countries. It then considers whether this represents an increase in the productivity of the top one percent or merely an extraction of economic rent.

INET is very happy to congratulate this year’s winners of the Nobel Prize in Economics: Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, and James Robinson.

With growth fueled by an increase in debt, Argentina is facing an uncertain economic future, despite investors’ generally rosy view. The government of Mauricio Macri has options to address the country’s macroeconomic risks, but none of them will be free of tough choices.

(Way) Beyond Diamond-Dybvig

Diamond-Dybvig-Bernanke is a flawed model of banking that has no room for a lender of last resort

Mariana Mazzucato argues that the idea that entrepreneurship is confined to the private sector is wrong.

Today the world lost one of its leading economic lights, as Nobel laureate Elinor Ostrom passed away at the age of 78.

The richest Americans control $46 trillion in wealth—but many pay little or no federal tax.

The governance of technology is a new challenge. The Recovery Plans is encouraging the digital transformation of our economies. An acceleration of technological change is bound to deeply affect labor markets and income distribution. While labor-market adaptation is likely to stave off permanent high unemployment, it cannot be counted on to prevent a sharp rise in inequality.

Our world is full of fault lines—growing inequality in income and opportunity; systemic racism; health and economic crises from a global pandemic; mistrust of experts; the existential threat of climate change; deep threats to employment in a digital economy with robotics on the rise. These fundamental problems and others like them stem from a common crisis in values.

As new coronavirus cases surge across India, calls are growing louder for wealthy countries to loosen intellectual property restrictions

William Janeway: Venture Capital in the 21st Century: ‘In this eight-part lecture series, Bill Janeway investigates the relationship between venture capital and technological innovation, and the interdependent roles of entrepreneurial firms, the mission-driven State and financial speculation in the overall innovation system… LINK: https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/videos/venture-capital>

A lot has changed since our taxes and benefits were designed, and the consequences of delaying reform are rising.

Camilla Toulmin, former director and associate of the International Institute for Environment and Development, talks to Rob about the role of civil society and education in African development.

Michael Sandel and Joe Stiglitz discuss why selling votes is bad for democracy, and how individual self-interest doesn’t always serve the public good

This paper, which is prepared for the Inagural Conference of the Institute for New Economic Thinking in King’s College, Cambridge, 8-11 April 2010, questions the preeminence of theory over empirics in economics and argues that empirical econometrics needs to be given a more important and independent role in economic analysis, not only to have some confidence in the soundness of our empirical inferences, but to uncover empirical regularities that can serve as a basis for new economic thinking.

Exploiting three earthquakes in Italy as quasi-experiments, we analyse the response of homeowners’ consumption to transfers targeted to finance housing repair and reconstruction. To the extent that funds are made available up-front, these transfers are akin to loans, mainly affecting the liquidity of households’ wealth

We call attention to the class of models that serve as the foundation for the rational expectations hypothesis (REH). Models in this class rule out completely any structural change that cannot be fully anticipated with a probabilistic or other quantitative rule. REH models are abstractions of rational decision-making, but only in a hypothetical world in which participants can fully anticipate when and how they might revise their understanding of the process driving outcomes.

This research project proposes linking emission fees to actual temperatures, thereby helping to break the policy stalemate and reach agreement on an effective policy.

Unveiling the U.S. Prison System

Is America facing a retirement crisis?

70 years ago today, Edward A. Tenenbaum helped pull off an astounding feat—successfully reforming Germany’s currency after World War II

Inflation, the euro crisis – for years there has been one worry hype after another. Yet fear frequently turns out to be wrong. We need a committee of wise men in charge of dealing with the real risks.

The Institute recently sponsored several panels at the Kiel Global Economic Symposium. In particular, the panel on Income Distribution and Mobility struck us as likely to be of especially wide interest. We are grateful for the participation of all the scholars on them and are pleased to present summaries of their presentations here.

There is a banking crisis. Again. Banking regulators were asleep at the switch. Again.

The Healthcare Policy Podcast

Japan is going to double its money supply, according to today’s front page of the Financial Times (5 April 2013), and a salient question might be what we should compare that to. It sounds like a lot, but is it?

INET’s Research Director Thomas Ferguson talks to Rob Johnson about the many ways in which money corrupts our politics, contributes to ever-greater inequality, and what can be done about it

Margaret Heffernan, a writer and former CEO, talks to Rob about her latest book, Uncharted: How to Map the Future Together, on the art of thinking about the future in the context of uncertainty

MIT Sloan Assistant Professor Emil Verner discusses his research into credit markets, and the role of economics in the rise of populism.

National security expert Sarah Chayes discusses her new book, On Corruption in America: and What Is at Stake. Chayes explores how corruption in U.S. state and society furthers and deepens inequality.

Financial Times economics commentator Martin Wolf discusses how the loss of faith and trust in government and in experts leads many to believe in anything, resulting in disunity and polarization

Renowned Harvard University professor of philosophy Michael Sandel talks about his new book and how centrist Democrat insensitivity to inequality and the ideology of meritocracy have contributed to right-wing populism, polarization, and distrust in government.

Winnie Byanyima shows how we all suffer when corporations evade taxes

Considerable academic and public attention has been drawn to the pulling away of the very rich—the so-called “one percent” whose gains have far outpaced those of everyone else (Piketty 2014). But the debate has reached well beyond the very top, especially in the United States.Indeed, the hollowing out of the middle class, continuing stagnation of wages, and new evidence on the lack of upward mobility across generations all strike at the very heart of the American ideal.

If we are to work toward a better future, we must look beyond the surface, and understand the multifaceted reality of China’s ascent in the global arena.

The World Bank’s global poverty estimates suffer from deep-seated problems arising from a single source, the lack of a standard for identifying who is poor and who is not that is consistent and meaningful.

Do economists live in a world of their own?

It’s crunch time in Europe.

This research project explores how genomic data can inform the understanding of social science questions. The genomic revolution means that social scientists are able to correlate a range of outcomes and behaviors with genes. This research studies what these correlations mean.

Boston Globe

Panic over the impact on  German savers of low interest rates and looming inflation neglects to mention that very few Germans are saving much

“Overcoming the COVID-19 crisis and ensuring a rapid and equitable economic recovery are only two of the challenges we must meet in 2021. This year will also be a crucial one for achieving the goal of net-zero carbon dioxide emissions by mid-century.” — Project Syndicate

“The new acting Deputy Prime Minister for EU funds is called Atanas Pekanov. The young expert, who recently turned 30, is an economist at the Austrian Institute for Economic Research (WIFO) in Vienna, Austria, and a lecturer at the Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU Wien). … Member of the Young Researchers Initiative of the Institute for New Economic Thinking.” — Darik

Lance Taylor, Servaas Storm, Mario Seccareccia and Marc Lavoie comment on Lawrence Summers and Anna Stansbury’s article titled “Whither Central Banking?”

Education innovator Jacqueline Edwards talks to Rob Johnson about how technology has the potential to bring people from less fortunate backgrounds onto an inspired path of learning that creates opportunity and portends a better future for humanity.

Rob Johnson talks to poet and scholar Ed Pavlic about how the pandemic’s physical distancing requirement forces us to reassess all of our relationships and how racism and inequality intensify the pandemic’s effects

In a complex world, we’ll experience more “black swans”, and the things that standard economic models assumed away will matter much more.

This research project commences work on a supplementary edition covering much of John Maynard Keynes’s significant writings on economics, philosophy, and politics that remain unpublished.

The YSI Economic History Working Group and the YSI Financial Stability Working Group are hosting a webinar series on the “Institutional Responses to Financial Crises, 1870 to 2017”. 

“But ultra-low interest rates may be doing more harm than good, economist William White says in a working paper published last month by the Institute for New Economic Thinking. White, a former economic adviser at the Bank for International Settlements, has a number of arguments against this central bank policy. First, while lower borrowing costs do initially accomplish their goal of spurring spending, much of it is on “unproductive purchases” by both households and corporations that only wind up increasing the debt burden. Second, low interest rates can actually destabilize financial markets and the institutions surrounding them, either through inflated prices, encouraging fund managers to take on riskier investments, or hindering how banks and lenders are supposed to do business, White argues. And then there’s the exit problem. Once central banks lower interest rates, it’s very hard to tighten the flow of easy money. “Each cycle of monetary easing contributes to a buildup of undesired side effects that raises the likelihood of future instability,” White writes. “Central banks are then lured into a ‘debt trap’ where they refrain from tightening, to avoid triggering the crisis that they wish to avoid, but that restraint only makes the underlying problems worse.” — Diccon Hyatt, The Balance

Institute for New Economic Thinking grantee James K. Galbraith will be awarded the 2014 Leontief Prize.