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With growth fueled by an increase in debt, Argentina is facing an uncertain economic future, despite investors’ generally rosy view. The government of Mauricio Macri has options to address the country’s macroeconomic risks, but none of them will be free of tough choices.

Mariana Mazzucato argues that the idea that entrepreneurship is confined to the private sector is wrong.

Today the world lost one of its leading economic lights, as Nobel laureate Elinor Ostrom passed away at the age of 78.

The richest Americans control $46 trillion in wealth—but many pay little or no federal tax.

The governance of technology is a new challenge. The Recovery Plans is encouraging the digital transformation of our economies. An acceleration of technological change is bound to deeply affect labor markets and income distribution. While labor-market adaptation is likely to stave off permanent high unemployment, it cannot be counted on to prevent a sharp rise in inequality.

Our world is full of fault lines—growing inequality in income and opportunity; systemic racism; health and economic crises from a global pandemic; mistrust of experts; the existential threat of climate change; deep threats to employment in a digital economy with robotics on the rise. These fundamental problems and others like them stem from a common crisis in values.

As new coronavirus cases surge across India, calls are growing louder for wealthy countries to loosen intellectual property restrictions

William Janeway: Venture Capital in the 21st Century: ‘In this eight-part lecture series, Bill Janeway investigates the relationship between venture capital and technological innovation, and the interdependent roles of entrepreneurial firms, the mission-driven State and financial speculation in the overall innovation system… LINK: https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/videos/venture-capital>

A lot has changed since our taxes and benefits were designed, and the consequences of delaying reform are rising.

Camilla Toulmin, former director and associate of the International Institute for Environment and Development, talks to Rob about the role of civil society and education in African development.

Michael Sandel and Joe Stiglitz discuss why selling votes is bad for democracy, and how individual self-interest doesn’t always serve the public good

This paper, which is prepared for the Inagural Conference of the Institute for New Economic Thinking in King’s College, Cambridge, 8-11 April 2010, questions the preeminence of theory over empirics in economics and argues that empirical econometrics needs to be given a more important and independent role in economic analysis, not only to have some confidence in the soundness of our empirical inferences, but to uncover empirical regularities that can serve as a basis for new economic thinking.

Exploiting three earthquakes in Italy as quasi-experiments, we analyse the response of homeowners’ consumption to transfers targeted to finance housing repair and reconstruction. To the extent that funds are made available up-front, these transfers are akin to loans, mainly affecting the liquidity of households’ wealth

We call attention to the class of models that serve as the foundation for the rational expectations hypothesis (REH). Models in this class rule out completely any structural change that cannot be fully anticipated with a probabilistic or other quantitative rule. REH models are abstractions of rational decision-making, but only in a hypothetical world in which participants can fully anticipate when and how they might revise their understanding of the process driving outcomes.

This research project proposes linking emission fees to actual temperatures, thereby helping to break the policy stalemate and reach agreement on an effective policy.

Unveiling the U.S. Prison System

Is America facing a retirement crisis?

Inflation, the euro crisis – for years there has been one worry hype after another. Yet fear frequently turns out to be wrong. We need a committee of wise men in charge of dealing with the real risks.

The Institute recently sponsored several panels at the Kiel Global Economic Symposium. In particular, the panel on Income Distribution and Mobility struck us as likely to be of especially wide interest. We are grateful for the participation of all the scholars on them and are pleased to present summaries of their presentations here.

The Healthcare Policy Podcast

Japan is going to double its money supply, according to today’s front page of the Financial Times (5 April 2013), and a salient question might be what we should compare that to. It sounds like a lot, but is it?

INET’s Research Director Thomas Ferguson talks to Rob Johnson about the many ways in which money corrupts our politics, contributes to ever-greater inequality, and what can be done about it

Margaret Heffernan, a writer and former CEO, talks to Rob about her latest book, Uncharted: How to Map the Future Together, on the art of thinking about the future in the context of uncertainty

National security expert Sarah Chayes discusses her new book, On Corruption in America: and What Is at Stake. Chayes explores how corruption in U.S. state and society furthers and deepens inequality.

Financial Times economics commentator Martin Wolf discusses how the loss of faith and trust in government and in experts leads many to believe in anything, resulting in disunity and polarization

Renowned Harvard University professor of philosophy Michael Sandel talks about his new book and how centrist Democrat insensitivity to inequality and the ideology of meritocracy have contributed to right-wing populism, polarization, and distrust in government.

Winnie Byanyima shows how we all suffer when corporations evade taxes

Considerable academic and public attention has been drawn to the pulling away of the very rich—the so-called “one percent” whose gains have far outpaced those of everyone else (Piketty 2014). But the debate has reached well beyond the very top, especially in the United States.Indeed, the hollowing out of the middle class, continuing stagnation of wages, and new evidence on the lack of upward mobility across generations all strike at the very heart of the American ideal.

If we are to work toward a better future, we must look beyond the surface, and understand the multifaceted reality of China’s ascent in the global arena.

The World Bank’s global poverty estimates suffer from deep-seated problems arising from a single source, the lack of a standard for identifying who is poor and who is not that is consistent and meaningful.

Do economists live in a world of their own?

It’s crunch time in Europe.

This research project explores how genomic data can inform the understanding of social science questions. The genomic revolution means that social scientists are able to correlate a range of outcomes and behaviors with genes. This research studies what these correlations mean.

Boston Globe

“Overcoming the COVID-19 crisis and ensuring a rapid and equitable economic recovery are only two of the challenges we must meet in 2021. This year will also be a crucial one for achieving the goal of net-zero carbon dioxide emissions by mid-century.” — Project Syndicate

“The new acting Deputy Prime Minister for EU funds is called Atanas Pekanov. The young expert, who recently turned 30, is an economist at the Austrian Institute for Economic Research (WIFO) in Vienna, Austria, and a lecturer at the Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU Wien). … Member of the Young Researchers Initiative of the Institute for New Economic Thinking.” — Darik

Lance Taylor, Servaas Storm, Mario Seccareccia and Marc Lavoie comment on Lawrence Summers and Anna Stansbury’s article titled “Whither Central Banking?”

Education innovator Jacqueline Edwards talks to Rob Johnson about how technology has the potential to bring people from less fortunate backgrounds onto an inspired path of learning that creates opportunity and portends a better future for humanity.

Rob Johnson talks to poet and scholar Ed Pavlic about how the pandemic’s physical distancing requirement forces us to reassess all of our relationships and how racism and inequality intensify the pandemic’s effects

In a complex world, we’ll experience more “black swans”, and the things that standard economic models assumed away will matter much more.

This research project commences work on a supplementary edition covering much of John Maynard Keynes’s significant writings on economics, philosophy, and politics that remain unpublished.

The YSI Economic History Working Group and the YSI Financial Stability Working Group are hosting a webinar series on the “Institutional Responses to Financial Crises, 1870 to 2017”. 

“But ultra-low interest rates may be doing more harm than good, economist William White says in a working paper published last month by the Institute for New Economic Thinking. White, a former economic adviser at the Bank for International Settlements, has a number of arguments against this central bank policy. First, while lower borrowing costs do initially accomplish their goal of spurring spending, much of it is on “unproductive purchases” by both households and corporations that only wind up increasing the debt burden. Second, low interest rates can actually destabilize financial markets and the institutions surrounding them, either through inflated prices, encouraging fund managers to take on riskier investments, or hindering how banks and lenders are supposed to do business, White argues. And then there’s the exit problem. Once central banks lower interest rates, it’s very hard to tighten the flow of easy money. “Each cycle of monetary easing contributes to a buildup of undesired side effects that raises the likelihood of future instability,” White writes. “Central banks are then lured into a ‘debt trap’ where they refrain from tightening, to avoid triggering the crisis that they wish to avoid, but that restraint only makes the underlying problems worse.” — Diccon Hyatt, The Balance

Institute for New Economic Thinking grantee James K. Galbraith will be awarded the 2014 Leontief Prize.

A webinar panel discussion, moderated by Gillian Tett, US Managing Editor of the Financial Times, with Laurence Boone, OECD Chief Economist, Moritz Schularick, INET Research Fellow, and Adam Tooze, Director of the European Institute at Columbia University.

“[T]he U.S. Department of Justice should determine and make clear that paying a ransom is illegal,” Hathaway said in an article posted May 13 by the Institute for New Economic Thinking. “This step would likely force organizations to further invest in their security and ability to withstand and recover from an incident (i.e., increase their resilience). Categorizing ransom payment as an illegal activity would also clearly remove coverage for these types of payments from insurance policies,” Hathaway wrote.” — Charlie Mitchell, Inside Cybersecurity

Alex Gibney, documentarian and director of Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room, talks to Rob Johnson about the crimes perpetuated by American government and society today, including systemic racism, police brutality, and neglect of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Rob talks to social entrepreneur and activist Tolu Olubunmi about the lack of faith in government in Africa—and in the rest of the world—particularly in response to the pandemic. They also discuss global migration, climate change, and how to maintain hope in dark times.

Soros’s remarks about the 2008 crash

A suprisingly large number of talks refer to the issue of human decision making.

James Galbraith flips the script on sanctions. How has Russia adapted?

New economic engagements with India.

Jeffrey Sachs, Director of Columbia University’s Center for Sustainable Development and Chair of the Lancet’s COVID-19 commission, talks about the many challenges and shortcomings of US policy towards the pandemic, as well as his new book, The Ages of Globalization, and how we can get the ethical foundations of economic thinking back on track.

Harvard Kennedy School economist Dani Rodrik talks to Rob about the importance of putting debt payments by developing countries on hold in the face of the pandemic. They also discuss the state of globalization and the US-China relationship.

INET Senior Research Analyst Lynn Parramore and NYU Professor of English Jeffrey Spear talk to Rob Johnson about what Victorian art critic John Ruskin’s writings on the collective have to do with the protests that have come in the wake of the killing of George Floyd by Minneapolis police.

Professor Rebeca Gomez Betancourt explores the transformative roles of pioneering women like Charlotte Perkins Gilman and Hazel Kyrk in the field of economics.

Bringing together 150 years of data, Ellora Derenoncourt is shedding new light on our understanding of the historical roots and persistent challenges of the U.S. racial wealth gap. This new picture highlights the scale of policies needed to achieve economic equality.

The Financial Times

The Institute for New Economic Thinking held its sixth Annual Conference from April 8 to April 11, 2015, in collaboration with the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in Paris.

Legislators who vote together get paid together

Pisani-Ferry discusses the challenges facing the creation of a common monetary union in the form that was eventually agreed in the 1990s absent a political union.

On July 22nd, Richard Koo, the chief economist from Nomura Research Institute, testified before Congress’ Committee on Financial Services. The subject: what the U.S. can do to avoid sinking into a depression.

“Executives have an interest in getting the stock price up and price gouging customers is one way they can do this,” said William Lazonick, professor emeritus of economics at University of Massachusetts and co-founder of the Academic-Industry Research Network. While many drug companies argue that they use their vast profits to fund ongoing pharmaceutical innovation, Lazonick said, “we’ve shown that most of these companies don’t do that.” Instead, the soaring prices fuel soaring stock prices and executive pay, which is often based largely on that price.” — INET Grantee William Lazonick

Rob talks to Adair Turner—member of the House of Lords, former Chairman of the British Financial Services Authority, and member of INET’s Commission on Global Economic Transformation—about how the COVID-19 economic crash compares to the post-2008 recession: namely, how to deal with a crisis of supply in addition to aggregate demand.

Banks take on excessive risk since they know, in case of failure, the taxpayer will step in to rescue them. That is a form of free insurance, and Ed Kane wants to end it.

In this short interview, Institute co-founder George Soros tackles the question at the heart of the Institute’s mission: What’s wrong with economics and what can we do to change it?

In the final part of his conversation with Rob Johnson, Daniel Ellsberg talks about his hopes for this generation and why he wrote The Doomsday Machine. Part 3 of 3

Institute scholar Arjun Jayadev argues that while TPP is dead, its damaging legacy on intellectual property rights is likely to shape future bilateral trade agreements

Newspaper’s probe amplifies questions raised by our research into the impact of corporate donations onU.S. elections

FT Alphaville uses a Lord of the Rings metaphor to describe the state of global currencies.

By Stefano Sannino Secretary-General, European External Action Service (EEAS), Jutta Urpilainen EU Commissioner for International Partnerships, European Commission, Rohinton P. Medhora President, The Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI), Andrew Michael Spence Nobel Laureate of Economics, Co-Chair, Commission on Global Economic Transformation, Jayati Ghosh Professor of Economics, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Andrea Renda (moderator) Senior Research Fellow, Head of GRID Unit, CEPS

“Well, one place to look always is: “Where’s the money? Who funds Congress?” Actually, there’s a very fine, careful study of this by the leading scholar who deals with funding issues and politics, Thomas Ferguson. He and his colleagues did a study in which they investigated a simple question: “What’s the correlation over many years between campaign funding and electability to Congress?” The correlation is almost a straight line. That’s the kind of close correlation that you rarely get in the social sciences: greater the funding, higher the electability.” — Noam Chomsky in an interview with Jacobin

“The issue is important because it tends to conflict with a hugely influential study published in 2017, called The Rate of Return on Everything, by Oscar Jorda, Katharina Knoll, Dmitry Kuvshinov, Moritz Schularick, and Alan M. Taylor. This was a mightily ambitious piece of financial archaeology covering 17 countries, and it rendered the startling result that housing performed virtually as well as equities over time, but with much less volatility. The result held true for every country that Jorda and his colleagues examined.” — John Authers, Bloomberg

“And what if there is a stock buyback during the period the share price is inflated? Does that harm shareholders because the company is spending money to repurchase its stock, or does it actually further benefit them by potentially raising earnings per share (EPS)?” … Citation: William Lazonick, The Financialization of the U.S. Corporation: What Has Been Lost and How It Can Be Regained, 36 Seattle U. L. Rev. 857, 859 (2013) (noting that trillions of dollars are spent on share buybacks and that “corporate executives who make these decisions are themselves prime beneficiaries of this focus on rising stock prices as a the measure of corporate performance”)

After the Thirty Year’s War, Europeans turned to rationalism and ushered in the Scientific Revolution. Talking to Rob, Andrew Sheng, Director of the George Town Institute of Open and Advanced Studies in Penang, says that the pandemic could do the same, as experts and scientists recapture lost esteem. But it would be a different science, which focuses more on the interconnectedness of everything.

“The gap between the “technology haves and have nots” in the corporate world is widening. A recent study also found that this gap is widening between rich countries and poor countries. When few companies have access to 3D printers, robots, or cutting-edge AI, there are fewer actors to leverage such technologies to the point at which productivity will increase across the board.” — Wim Naudé, The Conversation

“But to my surprise, The Atlantic article explained that MIT economist Peter Temin, in his book “The Vanishing Middle Class: Prejudice and Power in a Dual Economy,” not only delved into the contributing factors to poverty and economic inequality, he offered systemic solutions. This approach made the piece a must-read for me because at Gainesville for All, we’re all about finding systemic solutions to problems linked to race and poverty. Temin offered five proposals he believes can help tip the scales favorably for those stuck in the lower class.”— James F. Lawrence, Gainsville Sun

The Institute for New Economic Thinking, a global network of distinguished economists, is deeply concerned by the news of proposed legislation in Hungary’s National Assembly that would prevent the free functioning of the Central European University.

Paul Samuelson was both a mathematical micro-economist, working from theorem to proof in the neoclassical tradition, and a committed Keynesian macroeconomist, convinced of the necessity of policy intervention to improve the performance of market economies. How did he square these two sides of himself? Wade Hands goes into the archives to find out.

The most essential work in society isn’t accounted for in economic statistics.

“That Italy is “lazy to reform” is probably one of the most widespread myths - and has little to do with reality. In 2015, for example, the OECD rated Italy’s reform efforts as significantly higher than those of Germany and France. The Dutch economist Servaas Storm takes the same line. In an in-depth study, he found that Italian politics as a whole adhered much more closely to the (market-liberal) economic policy guidelines of the EU than Germany and France.” — Phillip Heimberger & Nikolaus Kowall, Makronom

William Lazonick, president of the Academic-Industry Research Network and a professor emeritus of economics at the University of Massachusetts, who has devoted much of his research to the topic of buybacks, has written that the rule change “in effect gave corporations license to use open-market repurchases to manipulate the market.” … In an interview, Lazonick told Retail Dive, “These distributions to shareholders, particularly buybacks on top of dividends, are at the expense of keeping people employed, rewarding them for the work they’ve done, and investing in new products and processes.”

Rohinton Medhora—economist and President of the Centre for International Governance Innovation—talks to Rob about how our economic institutions, such as the global intellectual property regime and central bank independence hamper our ability to address the global crisis that the COVID-19 pandemic has unleashed. They also talk about the state of populism, US-China relations, and the effect of the pandemic on Africa.

The economist had to learn moral philosophy before anything else—an underpinning that’s still helpful for today’s students

A discussion with Steven M. Fazzari, INET Grantee and the Bert A. & Jeanette L. Lynch Distinguished Professor of Economics, Washington University.

The business corporation is the central economic institution in a modern economy. A company’s senior executives, with the advice and support of the board of directors, are responsible for the allocation of corporate resources to investments in productive capabilities. Senior executives also advise the board on the extent to which, given the need to invest in productive capabilities, the company can afford to make cash distributions to shareholders. Motivating corporate resource-allocation decisions are the modes of remuneration that incentivize and reward the top executives of these companies. A sound analysis of the operation and performance of a modern economy requires an understanding of not only how much these executives are paid but also the ways in which the prevailing system of executive pay influences their decisions to allocate corporate resources.

Studies in psychology, neuroscience, biology, and many of the social sciences have long illustrated that human beings react very different from what economics textbooks tell you to expect when they are operating under conditions of radical uncertainty.

This research project explores the interaction between group identities and decisions to engage in collective action to secure access to public goods, such as education.

Economic activity cannot be explained solely by modeling rational behavior. Our partnership with the Kiel Institute brings interdisciplinary scholars together to develop new perspectives on human motivation and decision-making.

This research project uses spatial cross-sectional variation in addition to time series variation to estimate fiscal multipliers; the impact of anti-predatory lending laws on housing prices, default rates, and foreclosures; and the impact of raising wages during recessions.

In a recent post I wrote: “I am sure it will not take long before Journal of the History of Economic Thought (Cambridge Uni. Press) makes that list [Thompson Reuters, Social Science Citation Index].”

The Uncertainty of Retirement in the New Economy