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Ferguson et al.’s revised INET working paper on Trump and the 2016 election is temporarily available on open access from the International Journal of Political Economy.

How can we better prepare for financial downturns?

The empirical analysis of public sector investments and the health value created by the drugs selected for Medicare price negotiations provides a cost basis for the assessment of the maximum fair price.

Kalecki challenged the structuralist view by pointing to the internal social class barriers to development, and the need to assure supplies of basic wage goods in order to avoid inflationary pressures that could derail the development process.

NBA Legend Isiah Thomas talks with Rob Johnson about race, politics, compassion and the dreadful plantation model of Sports and Entertainment

Behavioral finance views stock-market investors’ expectations as largely unrelated to fundamental factors. Relying on survey data, this paper presents econometric evidence that fundamentals are a major driver of investors’ expectations.

A member of the Austrian Central Bank tells us his research on wealth and income inequality in Europe.

Economics has long been the domain of the ivory tower, where specialized language and opaque theorems make it inaccessible to most people. That’s a problem.

In recent decades, market values have crowded out non- market norms in almost every aspect of life—medicine, education, government, law, art, sports, even family life and personal relations. Without quite realizing it, we have drifted from having a market economy to being a market society. Is this where we want to be?

This research project analyzes the history of the concentration of bank regulatory authority within the Federal Reserve and explores the public policy issues arising from that concentration.

“Nobody but those top corporate executives was really paying attention to share buybacks until the middle of the last decade, when University of Massachusetts economist William Lazonick wrote an article for the Harvard Business Review documenting the surprising and depressing fact that the companies that had belonged to the Fortune 500 during the previous decade had spent so much on share buybacks and dividends that the total was either equal to or actually exceeded their profits.”

“Yet notable critics like Joseph Stiglitz and Jayati Ghosh, an economist at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, see woefully insufficient production by Western drug companies as a major roadblock to universal vaccination.” — Walden Bello, New York Times

“A study by Nobel Laureate James Heckman found that every dollar invested in a high-quality, birth to five program for the most economically disadvantaged children resulted in $7.30 in benefits as children grew up healthier, were more likely to graduate high school and college, were less likely to be involved in crime, and earned more as adults.” — The White House

Phillip Alvelda, Thomas Ferguson, and John C. Mallery discuss their latest research into how the pandemic is related to the economy and how protecting against the virus also protects societies from economic disaster.

Cathy O’Neil, founder of O’Neil Risk Consulting and Algorithmic Audit and author of the book Weapons of Math Destruction, talks to Rob Johnson about the crisis facing universities in the pandemic.

Rob Johnson talks to music producer Joe Boyd about the musical inflection point of the 1960’s, and how social change affects art and artists.

Rob Johnson talks to Robert Dugger, former member of the INET Board and founder of Ready Nation, about how society can safeguard its accomplishments and rights for posterity

Former Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis and artist Danae Stratou talk to Rob Johnson about Europe’s failures for working people, both before and during the pandemic.

Economics needs to better incorporate other social sciences

Thomas Piketty and his colleagues have insisted that tax records are better for measuring inequality than income surveys. They’re wrong.

LSE Director Minouche Shafik says that for democracy to work, we must keep the market out of certain domains

Examining the past is essential to understanding the present

Karl Polanyi demonstrated that Classical Liberalism and current Neoliberalism were organized political movements, but their successes sparked political backlashes against laissez-faire economics — a dialectic that continues to shape politics to this day.

Institute for New Economic Thinking grantee Hans-Joachim Voth talks about the crisis in Europe.

Behavior genetics is the study of the relationship between genetic variation and psychological traits. Turkheimer (2000) proposed “Three Laws of Behavior Genetics” based on empirical regularities observed in studies of twins and other kinships. On the basis of molecular studies that have measured DNA variation directly, we propose a Fourth Law of Behavior Genetics: “A typical human behavioral trait is associated with very many genetic variants, each of which accounts for a very small percentage of the behavioral variability.”

What do you get when you put two of the most well known and most widely cited economists in the world, both Nobel laureates, on stage together? A healthy dose of economic reality.

This research project provides the mathematics for a second marginal revolution enabling the natural modeling of heterogeneous agents with unstable beliefs, fully dynamic preferences, and allowances for an increased level of self-inconsistency.

Ed Glaeser, a Harvard economist specializing in cities and infrastructure, emphasizes the importance of everyday infrastructure, such as road quality, in improving the daily lives of millions.

Four months of the Trump presidency have already changed the world as we knew it. How did we get here? What consequences have the tariffs had and will have? How will U.S.-European trade relations evolve? What about the confrontation with China?

The Volcker Alliance and the Institute for New Economic Thinking convened a group of influential thinkers for a half-day forum to discuss regulatory and structural changes needed to ensure the stability and resilience of financial markets.

“The role of money in US politics is fundamental. A recent updating of earlier research, released by the Institute for New Economic Thinking, confirms that the views of the top decile of the population largely determine policy. The inevitable frustrations of the rest give the parties their passionate voting blocs.” — Martin Wolf

Sony Kapoor, Managing Director of the Nordic Institute for Finance, Technology, and Sustainability, talks to Rob Johnson about the real problems that the pandemic exposes and whether a Green New Deal is still achievable in this context

Zach Carter, Huffington Post reporter and author of the new book, The Price of Peace: Money, Democracy, and the Life of John Maynard Keynes, talks to Rob Johnson about Keynes’s vision of maintaining democracy in times of crisis.

“A recent study by the Institute for New Economic Thinking, painting a wider picture, shows that the effective reduction in emissions due to carbon pricing policy comes to between just 1 and 2.5 percent of the total.” — Ornaldo Gjergji, Osservatorio

Eugene McCarraher, Associate Professor of Humanities at Villanova University and author of the book, The Enchantment of Mammon, talks about his book and how society has not really become more secular because it shifted its focus from the worship of God to the worship of markets.

Financial Times economics commentator Martin Wolf continues the conversation about how societal fragmentation benefits the well-off and that only greater equality can reestablish trust between social groups and the state

MIT economic historian Peter Temin talks to Rob Johnson about his next book, which looks at the economic history of how Blacks have been systematically excluded from US society

INET Senior Economist Arjun Jayadev and Shuttleworth Foundation fellow Achal Prabhala talk to Rob Johnson about the global need for access to affordable pharmaceuticals, especially in India and the rest of the developing world.

Ahead of the series launch, Harvard’s Michael Sandel discusses the moral limits of markets with Rob Johnson

An individual fish reduces the danger to itself by swimming as close as possible to the center of the school. That is how schools hold together.

Why didn’t central banks see the financial crisis coming?

Warren Mosler, president of the financial services firm Valance Company and one of the founders of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), speaks about what MMT tells us about economic policy. How can MMT help get the economy back on track?

Paper presented at Bretton Woods Conference

As we prepare to digest the implications of this week’s ECB move, it seems worthwhile to take a look at the monetary economics of fixed exchange rates.

There is no good case for major deregulation of the US financial sector, warns INET Board Chairman Adair Turner, and any backsliding by a Trump administration on banks’ capital requirements instituted globally after 2008 will be very dangerous

A discussion on China’s economic management at the beginning of the Trump era featuring Leland R. Miller, Co-founder and CEO of the China Beige Book.

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Tom Nichols, Professor of National Security Affairs, US Naval War College, columnist for USA Today, and contributing writer at The Atlantic, discusses his new book, Our Own Worst Enemy: The Assault from within on Modern Democracy, and how a decline in civic virtue has generated a dangerous illiberalism.

“The most recent study, using sophisticated AI techniques, dispels “notions that anyone’s opinion about public policy outside of the top 10 percent of affluent Americans independently helps to explain policy.” Thomas Ferguson, the leading academic scholar of the power of the “tools and tyrants” of government, concludes: “Knowing the policy area, the preferences of the top 10 percent, and the views of a handful of interest groups suffice to explain policy changes with impressive accuracy.” — Jared Rodriguez, Truthout

“The economists Òscar Jordà, Moritz Schularick, and Alan Taylor studied the sensitivity of house prices to interest rates across 14 countries and 140 years of history. They found that a 1 per cent rise in interest rates reduces the ratio of house prices to incomes by about 4 per cent. In New Zealand, for example, that ratio has risen by about half in a decade, implying a double-digit rise in interest rates to stabilise it.” — Robin Harding, FT

“I believe they mostly got this right. Just before President Biden took office, I presented some thoughts on what a rescue plan should include to deal with the macroeconomic challenges of the pandemic. I emphasized four broad areas: public health spending, enhanced unemployment benefits, assistance to state and local governments, and so-called “stimulus checks” to households. The legislation the president has signed does a pretty good job in all four areas.” — Sara Savat, Washington University News Room

“Ferguson, whose research has shown that candidates who raise more money stand a much greater chance of winning election, added that “when you get that much money pouring into the election, it means that you have all these investors who decide which election is ‘worth it’ and that tends to pull even liberal democrats to the right. It is a somewhat subtle effect but a very real one and clearly an anti-democratic consequence of the system.” — Andrew Kennis

“Structural analysis to uncover global trends is what Goodhart and Pradhan’s book does. I’m not sure I completely recommend it, as it gets a little technical in spots, but I certainly recommend learning more about their analysis. (You can hear them interviewed in the podcast, “Economics & Beyond with Rob Johnson.”)” — William Watson

Susan Piver—a writer on meditation and Buddhist teachings and founder of the Open Heart Project—talks to Rob about how Buddhist ideas of being grounded in the present can help us get through the uncertain times of this pandemic.

“The landscape of EM has consolidated into a few corporate conglomerates, which are oligarchies with iron grips on contracts through noncompetitive or illegal collusions with large hospital systems in the form of kickbacks. (Institute for New Economic Thinking. March 15, 2020; https://bit.ly/34fLeMD.) This has effectively castrated any hope for independent practices to thrive and injected many wrongful consequences into EM.” — Rizvi, Saba MD, Emergency Medical News

Gaël Giraud, founder and leader of the Georgetown University Center for Environmental Justice, talks to Rob Johnson about how liberal democracies will fare in facing the pandemic, whether we could see a rise in authoritarian governments, and why economics needs to take climate change into account

Universal Basic Income is gaining in popularity, among socialists and libertarians alike. But when it comes to implementation, the devil is in the details.

A discussion on Brexit with Iain Begg, Professorial Research Fellow at the European Institute, London School of Economics.

Professor Marlene Kim provided a riveting picture, via her personal family history of the exploitation of the Asian-American working-class in California. She challenged the invisibility of Asian-Americans in discussions of race in America, and also focused on the double burden of discrimination borne by women of color.

The media has failed ask basic questions about the economic thinking — and business record — of Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, says Pulitzer-prize-winning journalist David Cay Johnston, author of The Making of Donald Trump.

‘Tis the season to celebrate gift giving. But for big banks Santa Claus comes all the time, in the form of handsomely wrapped subsidies and subtly packaged regulatory nuances worth more more gold than the wildest dreams of the Three Wise Men.

The logic of deep global capitalist crises needs to be incorporated centrally into an understanding of the changes in the within-country inequality levels. I present a theoretical framework that incorporates two levels of political economic processes. First,global capitalist crises lead to the creation of an institutional structure or a regime in the capitalist centers that influences inequality in these core countries and in the periphery. Second the class configuration in the non-core countries - a set of institutional arrangements that can be termed local political economy - also plays a key role in determining inequality outcomes.

This research project formulates a new model of bounded rationality, based on the idea that agents will keep a simple, or “sparse,” model of the world.

“Failed at free enterprise? Well, try industrial policy, China style”

“So these companies have been hamstrung by these hedge fund activists that are only interested in making a buck as quickly as possible. And they really don’t care about the long-term sustainability or health of the company. Or is it anything the company might want to do in the way of making products in the future? They’re all about the short term. So they are holding American companies back.” — Lynn Parramore

“In “Private Equity’s Engagement With Health Care: Cause for Concern?” a report to the Institute for New Economic Thinking, researchers Eileen Applebaum and Rosemary Batt found that wages dropped at urgent care centers after acquisitions by private equity companies. They were 9 to 12 percent lower than hospital wages. More consolidation and Amazon’s relentless drive to suppress costs bode more of the same.” — Brian Alexander, Boston Globe

Stephanie Blankenburg, who heads up the Debt and Development Finance Branch of the United Nations Commission on Trade and Development, talks about the urgent need for the world to provide massive loan forgiveness to the developing world in response to the global economic crisis that the coronavirus pandemic has caused.

Rob talks to Nobel laureate economist George Akerlof about economics’ bias against the “soft” social scientific perspectives of anthropology, sociology, and psychology in favor of “hard” economic models that attempt to replicate iron-clad scientific laws. They also discuss how to reform the economics profession and the needs of a new generation of economists.

Robert Borosage, co-founder of the Campaign for America’s Future, talks about the what went well and what did not go well at the Democratic Convention and the Democrats’ failure to recognize that their own economic policies helped bring about Trump

Nelson Barbosa—Professor at the Getúlio Vargas Foundation in São Paulo, former Finance Minister of Brazil, and member of INET’s Global Commission on Economic Transformation—talks to Rob about how faith in the free market is eroding under the COVID-19 pandemic, and how the crisis will impact globalization.

Jayati Ghosh, professor of economics at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi and member of INET’s Global Commission on Economic Transformation, talks to Rob about the unique way the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting developing countries. They also discuss the developing global economic crisis, and the way young people in particular are responding.

There’s no turning back from humanity’s move to high-density living, says Ed Glaeser. The task of the century will be making cities more liveable.

What happens to Main Street when Wall Street fails? Japan expert David Weinstein squeezes a unique data set to answer this question.

This research project follows freed slaves from when they first applied for their land under the Southern Homestead Act until 1900 to learn how access to free land influenced their economic progress.

This research project develops, estimates, calibrates, and deploys a new class of stock flow consistent macroeconomic models to try to understand Ireland’s macroeconomic collapse since 2007.

Exit Strategies and the New Normal

The world won’t emerge from the pandemic until the pandemic is controlled everywhere, and this is a special concern because of the new mutations that are likely to arise where the disease is running its course. So too, the world won’t have a robust economic recovery until at least most of the world is on the course to prosperity. Global growth is far more muted now than then, and inward-looking policies in some of the nations where growth has been restored have resulted in an increase in their trade surplus, attenuating the global impact of their recovery.

Danny Quah—Dean and the Li Ka Shing Professor of Economics at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in Singapore—talks to Rob about why the fast-moving “Ferrari” economy we’re used to is ill-suited for the pandemic, and why we now need a sturdier “Jeep” economy that can handle bumps in the road.

“A new international analysis by the Institute for New Economic Thinking found countries such as South Korea and New Zealand that focused on lockdowns early on in the pandemic, rather than preserving their economies, have gained control over the virus and are now seeing their economies grow, in contrast with the dire economic circumstances currently in the U.S.” — Mike Lugwig, Truthout

“Among those contributions, recent works highlight the deep, radical revision of axioms considered cystic: that hysteresis, the permanence of high unemployment rates over time, is a basic condition to keep inflation under control. Professors Walter Paternesi, Davide Roamniello and Antonella Stirati have empirically demonstrated that this thesis is not permanent and that long-term unemployment can be reversed without a significant spike in inflation (https://www.ineteconomics.org/research/research- papers / on-the-non-inflationary-effects-of-long-term-unemployment-reductions). Another flagship of themainstream that can fall apart.” — Carles Manera, The Worker

“Just now read this fascinating interview by Janine Jackson of fair.org (Fairness & Accuracy In Reporting) with Lynn Parramore of the Institute for New Economic Thinking on how hedge fund managers are damaging American companies by pushing company managements to do stock buybacks. Basically, stock buybacks force up the price of a stock, allowing shareholders to make megabucks when they sell. Such buybacks were difficult until the Reagan administration loosened the regulations in 1982. Why are stock buybacks bad ? Because they divert money from research, from new investments and innovation, and from raising wages. The interview with Lynn Parramore goes into the details.” — Daily Kos

“Texas’ leaders knew as of 2011 … when the state went through a short severe freeze, that the system was radically unstable in extreme weather,” wrote James K. Galbraith, of the University of Texas at Austin, in the Institute for New Economic Thinking. “But they did nothing,” he wrote. “To do something, they would have had to regulate the system. And they didn’t want to regulate the system, because the providers, a rich source of campaign funding, didn’t want to be regulated and to have to spend on weatherization that was not needed – most of the time.” That’s what happens when the private sector calls the shots. Money first.” — Richard Gross, Counterpunch

“Actual experience, as opposed to cost-benefit analyses of theoretical alternatives, further strengthens the case for suppressing the disease fully, where feasible. A recent paper from the Institute for New Economic Thinking, To Save the Economy, Save the People First, suggests why. A chart (reproduced here) shows that countries have followed two strategies: suppression, or trading off deaths against the economy. By and large, the former group has done better in both respects. Meanwhile, countries that have sacrificed lives have tended to end up with high mortality and economic costs.” — Martin Wolf, The Financial Times

INET’s Young Scholar’s Initiative (YSI) is holding its third plenary conference this November, this time all online. However, unlike most online conferences, the 2020 YSI Plenary is a true workshop for young scholars to get to know each other and to identify the most important economic questions for the near future. Rob Johnson discusses the project with YSI’s coordinators Jay Pocklington, Heske van Doornen, and Thomas Vass.

“Obviously, there’s serious work to be done in changing cultural norms. Dealing with this disrespectful activity requires a versatile toolkit. … Fortunately, cultural norms can change. Challenges to traditional patriarchy and outdated workplace behavior, like the #MeToo movement, are already shifting notions of what is acceptable. Lesley Stahl has been a respected journalist for 50 years. Which means she likely knows better than anyone else that gaining a seat at the table doesn’t mean much if you can’t be heard over the din.” — INET Senior Research Analyst Lynn Parramore

Economist Olugbenga Ajilore shows the high cost of the American government’s arming of local police with military weapons, which has exacerbated lethal use of force against black communities

Mallaby’s research shows that Greenspan knew more about the looming perils than people realize.

Black Lives Matter movement co-founder Alicia Garza, addressing the Institute’s Detroit conference on the economics of race, placed the turmoil created by the 2016 election in the context of a backlash against the gains made by social movements challenging racial and social injustice. She argued that those movements now need, more than ever, “to show up for one another” at a local level to protect those gains

Frank Dikötter explores previously classified Chinese leadership documents, and attempts to set the record straight.

Lance Taylor explains how missing the big picture is too common in the field.

Over the past two hundred years, poor countries have become faster at adopting the technologies of rich countries. So why is it, the economist asks, that poor countries have remained poor, by and large?

Did you know that, around 1920, Cleveland, Ohio, had a technological cutting edge not unlike Silicon Valley today? You probably didn’t. Margaret Levenstein tells the story.

Excellence and Conformity in Economics: how to set the incentives straight

“Conveniently for present purposes, Naked Capitalism posted a piece by political scientist Thomas Ferguson on the determinants of political decision making— that is, on the ‘product’ that elected representatives produce. The punchline: ‘money,’ as defined by the interests of corporate executives and oligarchs, is the overwhelming determinant of ‘political’ outcomes. Advancing the public will— the liberal explanation; or the public interest, the explanation offered for representative democracy, have no bearing. The longstanding practice of fitting political outcomes into these theoretical frames to ‘explain’ public policies is scientific malpractice given Mr. Ferguson’s findings.” —- Rob Urie

“Her omission understates drug spending by almost one-third, or about $145 billion. She claimed most drugs are developed in pharmaceutical firms, but funding from the National Institutes of Health contributed to all 356 new drugs approved by the Food and Drug Administration from 2010 to 2019. Drug corporations take a handoff after the most risky research is done and a drug shows promise.” — David Mitchell