Finance
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YSI Conference on Debt Sustainability
YSI
ConferenceApr 28–30, 2023
Discussions on the key conceptual and policy themes for sovereign debt sustainability with a view to proposing possible policy reforms.
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Bank Stocks Rallied Today, But…
Mar 27, 2023
Morale hazard can turn into a darker ‘moral’ hazard
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The Financial Crisis of 2023: Protecting Big Finance, Coming and Going
Mar 27, 2023
There needs to be a safe place for businesses to place their reserves and working capital
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Anatomy of a Banking Crisis
Mar 27, 2023
There is a banking crisis. Again. Banking regulators were asleep at the switch. Again.
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How to Stop Bank Runs and Get Taxpayers Off the Hook
Mar 27, 2023
A federal government guarantee or 100% reserve banking? Which is better?
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People’s Deposits Are Safe From Bank Failures But Not From the Economic Fallout
Mar 27, 2023
Bank failures don’t threaten most deposits, but they do threaten jobs
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Shifting Downward: How a Change in Fed Culture Hurt Bank Supervision
Mar 27, 2023
The explanation of systematic breakdowns in supervisory oversight over time must include the shift in Federal Reserve culture during and after the 1990s
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Postscript to INET’s Symposium on the Banking Crisis
Mar 27, 2023
Austerity for ordinary citizens and bank rescues for the affluent is a toxic mix
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Can it Happen Again?
Mar 27, 2023
This time is different. But is it?
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What’s Actually Behind the Banking Crisis? Why You Pay When They Play.
Mar 23, 2023
In the following conversation, law and economics expert Walker Todd explains how a financialized system creates havoc and why it’s time to rethink banking
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SVB RIP: A Look Backward
Mar 13, 2023
INET Research on Financial Sector Weakness and Too Big to Fail
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Working Paper
The Pursuit of Shareholder Value: Cisco’s Transformation from Innovation to Financialization
Feb 2023
On the dereliction of key US-based business corporations to take the lead in making the investments in organizational learning required to generate cutting-edge communication-infrastructure products.
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How the Crypto Hustle Carries on America’s Shameful History of Racial Inequality
Jan 24, 2023
Cryptocurrency was supposed to change the economic outlook for Black America. For many, it made things worse.
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Years granted:
2011, 2012, 2013,
Robustness of Policy Analysis to Departures from Model-Consistent Expectations
This research project develops an approach to policy analysis in the context of a macroeconomic model that does not assume that people in the economy forecast the economy’s future evolution under any given policy in the same way as the policy analyst’s own model does.
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Years granted:
2011, 2012, 2013, 2014,
Estimation of Stock Flow Consistent Models
This research project develops, estimates, calibrates, and deploys a new class of stock flow consistent macroeconomic models to try to understand Ireland’s macroeconomic collapse since 2007.
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The World After Capital
Aug 9, 2022
We are in the midst of another global transformation, but this time we might have the tools to get it right.
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How Public Real Estate Investment Trusts Extract Wealth from Nursing Homes and Hospitals
Aug 1, 2022
Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) are considered “passive” investors and are exempt from corporate tax. But in reality, they play a very active role in reshaping whole industries, like healthcare.
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Working Paper Series
The Role of Public REITs in Financialization and Industry Restructuring
Jul 2022
Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) are considered “passive” investors and are exempt from corporate tax. But in reality, they play a very active role in reshaping whole industries, like healthcare.
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What A Green Monetary Policy Could Look Like
Jul 12, 2022
Central banks can encourage climate-friendly investments by offering financial institutions favorable haircuts on green collateral
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Working Paper Series
Monetary Policy for the Climate? A Money View Perspective on Green Central Banking
Jul 2022
Central banks can encourage climate-friendly investments by offering financial institutions favorable haircuts on green collateral
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The Ukrainian War and the End of Globalization?
Apr 11, 2022
Economic sanctions against Russia are adding to a major redistribution of income from workers and middle-class consumers to profits in international trade.
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Re-orienting Global Finance Towards Ecological and Social Goals
Apr 11, 2022
UNCTAD Director Richard Kozul-Wright and Kevin Gallagher, Global Development Policy professor at Boston University, discuss their book, The Case for a New Bretton Woods. Ever since the post-war economic order was dismantled beginning in the 1980s, a re-design of the global economic order has become increasingly urgent in light of the social and ecological crises that we face.
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Working Paper
Market Participants Neither Commit Predictable Errors nor Conform to REH
Sep 2021
Evidence from Survey Data of Inflation Forecasts
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How Intel Financialized and Lost Leadership in Semiconductor Fabrication
Jul 7, 2021
Stock buybacks come at the cost of technological innovation
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Debt Talks Episode 8 | Public Debt: How Much is Too Much?
Webinarwith Rüdiger Bachmann, Claudia Sahm, Ludwig Straub; moderated by Moritz Schularick
Hosted by Private Debt
Jun 29, 2021
Where are the US and Europe now and where could they be going?
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What Earnings Calls Tell Us About Financial Risk
May 3, 2021
Analyzing corporate conference calls reveals the way that countries perceive and spread risk through the global financial system
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Working Paper Series
Country Risk
May 2021
Analyzing corporate conference calls reveals the way that countries perceive and spread risk through the global financial system
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Debt Talks Episode 7 | The Case for Household Debt Relief
Webinarwith Erica Jiang, Johnna Montgomerie, and Jialan Wang; moderated by Moritz Schularick
Hosted by Private Debt
Apr 20, 2021
Large-sale debt relief for indebted households could be a game changer.
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Debt Talks Episode 6 | Who’s Afraid of European Banks?
Webinarwith Martin Arnold, Elena Carletti and Richard Vague; moderated by Thomas Fricke and Moritz Schularick
Hosted by Private Debt
Feb 23, 2021
Does the COVID recession still have the potential to turn into a broader financial meltdown?
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The Big Squeeze
Feb 12, 2021
Is r/wallstreetbets really leading a financial revolution?
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Bonds or Bust!
George Soros: Proposal for Perpetual Bonds — A Discussion on the Future of European Fiscal Capacity
YSI
DiscussionDec 4, 2020
George Soros’ latest op-ed in the Project Syndicate reasserts his view how perpetual bonds could help the European Union overcome its deadlock on fiscal spending.
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YSI 2020 Plenary: New Economic Questions
Young Scholars Initiative Virtual Plenary
YSI
PlenaryNov 6–15, 2020
What are the 100 most pertinent economic questions facing our global societ?
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Debt Talks Episode 3 | How Bad Can It Still Get? Credit Risks, Debt Overhang, and the COVID-19 Recession
WebinarClick to Register | moderated by Moritz Schularick with Megan Greene, Anatole Koletsky and Yueran Ma
Hosted by Private Debt
Oct 20, 2020
What is the current situation in credit markets? Will an overhang of debt on corporate balance sheets slow down the recovery from the COVID recession and be a drag on investment going forward? Does the COVID recession still have the potential to turn into a broader financial meltdown?
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How Bankers Hide Losses
Sep 24, 2020
Like master illusionists, bank accountants conceal losses from federal regulators, putting the whole economy at risk
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Working Paper Series
Masters of Illusion: Bank and Regulatory Accounting for Losses in Distressed Banks
Sep 2020
The study seeks to explain why the instruments of central banking inevitably break down over time.
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Why International Financial Regulation Still Falls Short
Aug 5, 2020
Despite post-2008 regulations, the boom-bust credit cycle continues to run wild
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Working Paper Series
International Financial Regulation: Why It Still Falls Short
Aug 2020
Despite post-2008 regulations, the boom-bust credit cycle continues to run wild
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Immaculate Deception
Jul 20, 2020
How and Why Bankers Still Enjoy a Global Rescue Network
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Working Paper Series
Immaculate Deception: How (and Why) Bankers Still Enjoy a Global Rescue Network
Jul 2020
A look at Dodd-Frank’s impact
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The Crash of 2008 & The Pandemic of 2020: The Combination That Changed Capitalism Forever
Webinarwith Yanis Varoufakis | 12:00pm ET / 9:00am PT
Jul 2, 2020
As protests erupt on the streets of America and the world, current power structures no longer feel tenable. Can this popular uprising break the neoliberal grip on the state and create lasting structural change that will empower the disenfranchised?
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How Market Sentiment Underpins Knightian Uncertainty
May 7, 2020
We find empirical evidence that changes in market sentiment drive unforeseeable change in how stock returns unfold over time, thereby engendering Knightian uncertainty.
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Working Paper Series
How Market Sentiment Drives Forecasts of Stock Returns
May 2020
We reveal a novel channel through which market participants’ sentiment influences how they forecast stock returns: their optimism (pessimism) affects the weights they assign to fundamentals.
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The EU’s Green Deal: Bismarck’s ‘What Is Possible’ versus Thunberg’s ‘What Is Imperative’ in the Age of Covid-19
Apr 1, 2020
What ails the EU Green Deal is exactly what troubles the Union in general — an absence of social democracy at work
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Why Data Is Like Fire
Mar 11, 2020
Dr. Chen Long, Director of the Luohan Academy, explains why the digital revolution is so different from the industrial revolution
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How The Troika Runs Europe
Jan 22, 2020
The European Commission, the European Central Bank, and the IMF are the continent’s austerity police
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Banning Buybacks
Dec 4, 2019
Stock buybacks are giveaways for greedy investors at the expense of everyone else.
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Private Equity and Surprise Medical Billing
Sep 4, 2019
How Investor-owned Physician Practices Are Driving up Healthcare Costs
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How Can We Track Bank Risk?
Aug 21, 2019
Risky lending took down the global economy in 2008. Tracking it now is a vital job for economists, says Juliane Begenau
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Working Paper Series
Firm-Level Political Risk: Measurement and Effects
Jul 2019
We adapt simple tools from computational linguistics to construct a new measure of political risk faced by individual US firms: the share of their quarterly earnings conference calls that they devote to political risks.
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How the Stock Market Drives Wealth Inequality
Jul 10, 2019
When the stock market grows faster than the housing market, the gains of the top 1% outpace those of the middle class
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A Brief History of Doom
Jun 26, 2019
Richard Vague and Rob Johnson discuss the role of excessive lending in causing financial crises throughout history
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Non-bank lending and the credit cycle: what are the risks?
Jun 21, 2019 |
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Outlook Session: How much debt is too much?
Jun 21, 2019 |
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Expectations and Credit Cycles: What role for over-optimism of borrowers and lenders?
Jun 21, 2019 |
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Incentives and Credit Cycles: What’s driving risk taking in credit booms?
Jun 21, 2019 |
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Private Debt Booms and the Real Economy: Do the benefits outweigh the costs?
Jun 21, 2019 |
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Sectoral Credit and Financial Instability: Does the sectoral allocation matter for financial stability risks?
Jun 21, 2019 |
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How can we measure risk exposure of banks and credit markets?
Jun 21, 2019 |
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Is risk mispriced in credit booms, and if so, why?
Jun 21, 2019 |
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Are better capitalized banking systems safer?
Jun 21, 2019 |
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Credit Supply Shocks: Where do they come from, and what are their effects?
Jun 20, 2019 |
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Credit Booms and Crises: what do historical bank-level data tell us?
Jun 20, 2019 |
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Subprime Lending and the 2008 Crisis: Do we need a new narrative?
Jun 20, 2019 |
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Was the US Great Depression a “Credit Boom Gone Bust?”
Jun 20, 2019 |
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NextGen
ConferencePrivate Debt Initiative
Hosted by Private Debt
Jun 20–21, 2019
Shaped by the 2008 financial crisis, a new generation of economists is expanding the boundaries of economic thinking on credit cycles, private debt, and financial stability.
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Could Household Debt Cause the Next Recession?
Jun 19, 2019
Steven Pressman says in the next few years, we could see rising interest rates bring about a recession
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Relearning Recessions
Jun 12, 2019
Matthew Baron challenges conventional myths about booms and busts
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Coding Private Money
Jun 3, 2019
The state has long used law to back private money—with dire consequences, then and now
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Report
Macroeconomic Management Meets the New Economy
May 2019
A report of the Commission on Global Economic Transformation’s subcommittee on Macroeconomics & Finance
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Macroeconomic Stimulus à la MMT
Apr 30, 2019
Modern Monetary Theory is problematic. Launching large scale fiscal programs that rely on it would be skating on thin ice.
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U.S. Borrowers Still Pay More Than What’s Fair
Apr 19, 2019
Low interest rate policy can only do so much to bring the relief to American borrowers that they deserve: past monetary policies, credit market regulations and stagnant labor productivity growth all get in the way. Interest rate policy activism is part of the problem, not the solution.
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INET to G20: Bank Regulation Can't Be Heads Banks Win, Tails Taxpayers Lose
Mar 28, 2019
At a G20 preparatory meeting in Berlin, an INET panel analyzed how governments can prevent banks from exploiting taxpayer-funded bailout guarantees
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Is MMT “America First” Economics?
Mar 20, 2019
Modern monetary theorists ignore how their policies could hurt developing countries
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Financial Regulation Shouldn’t Be Hard—Here’s What We Need to Make It Work
Feb 20, 2019
We can land planes safely at crowded airports, yet we can’t manage to make our financial system safe. Why?
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How Imperfect Knowledge Shapes Financial Markets
Feb 15, 2019
Asset markets are indispensable in harnessing society’s diverse views and insights about future business performance. But those views are shaped as much by emotion and crowd mentality as by rational expectations.
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Working Paper Series
New Evidence on the Portfolio Balance Approach to Currency Returns
Feb 2019
Asset markets are indispensable in harnessing society’s diverse views and insights about future business performance. But those views are shaped as much by emotion and crowd mentality as by rational expectations.
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The Natural Rate of Interest Is Anything But
Jan 28, 2019
Central bankers pursue a “neutral” rate that doesn’t exist
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Working Paper Series
Estimates of the Natural Rate of Interest and the Stance of Monetary Policies: A Critical Assessment
Jan 2019
Starting with the literature on the estimates of the natural rate of interest, this paper critically analyzes the modern practice of identifying the benchmark rate of monetary policy with an equilibrium or neutral interest rate reflecting “fundamental forces” unaffected by monetary factors.
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Commission on Global Economic Transformation
Chaired by Nobel laureates Joseph Stiglitz and Michael Spence, INET has assembled a global team of leaders and scholars calling for new thinking & new rules for the world economy
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Private Debt
The Private Debt initiative is an opportunity to articulate how private debt impacts the economy and to specify the pathways for its effects. The initiative will also lead to better knowledge for the use of regulators, policymakers, journalists, and the public. Finally, the Private Debt initiative will open a better-informed dialogue towards tangible solutions to the problems posed by excessive private debt.
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The Hidden Decline in Human Capital—and the Danger Ahead
Jan 2, 2019
U.S. GDP accounting underestimates intangible capital, overstates financial capital, and is all but oblivious to the the erosion of human and social capital. A serious growth slowdown is coming.
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Working Paper Series
Finance in Economic Growth: Eating the Family Cow
Jan 2019
The American economy changed rapidly in the last half-century. The National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) were designed before these changes started. They have stretched to accommodate new and growing service activities, but they are still organized for an industrial economy.
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Inclusive or Exclusive Global Development?
Scrutinizing Financial Inclusion
YSI
WorkshopNov 21, 2018
Microfinance and then financial inclusion have become buzzwords in international development. Such initiatives have mobilised and generated large amounts of development funding, despite substantial amount of critique. Such critiques call for a more impartial assessment of the effectiveness of financial inclusion on the grounds that funds for microfinance, they argue, displaced development spendings on healthcare, education or infrastructure. In addition, the focus on expansion of financial markets to ‘bank’ and financially ‘include’ the poor may divert attention from more comprehensive and effective poverty reduction strategies. Critiques of this ‘way of doing development’ are often sidelined and labelled as ‘extreme’, ‘sloppy’ or ideology-driven rather than evidence-based. We believe that there is a need for contemporary development scholars from all disciplines to engage in those debates. This half-day workshop would bring in such scholars to discuss what we have learned from a decade of research on the microfinance, and how financial inclusion and the emergence of fintech may offer new opportunities - as well as risks - in for inclusive global development.
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Money Matters
Nov 7, 2018
Neoclassical economics dismisses the role of money and the state in the economy. Keynes scholar Robert Skidlesky says it’s time for a re-evaluation.
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YSI @ FMM Conference: 10 Years after the Crash
YSI
ConferenceOct 25–27, 2018
What did societies and politicians learn from the crash? What have been theoretical achievements in orthodox and heterodox economic thinking since then? Where do we go from here?
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Beyond the Dollar
Oct 24, 2018
The current international monetary system is costly, unfair, and risky. “Economic nationalism” and deregulation in the U.S. will make it worse. A multilateral alternative is needed.
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1st GLOBELICS pre-Conference for Young Scholars
Workshop Series on Financing of Innovation and Infrastructure for Development
YSI
WorkshopOct 23, 2018
The YSI Economics of Innovation, Economic Development and Africa Working Groups, in partnership with Global Network for Economics of Learning, Innovation and Competence Building Systems (GLOBELICS), Globelics Alumni, are organizing the 1st GLOBELICS Pre-Conference for Young Scholars entitled ‘Financing of Innovation and Infrastructure for Development’.
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Why Hysteria Over the Italian Budget Is Wrong-Headed
Oct 10, 2018
Reactions to the size of the proposed plan rely on discredited assumptions and betray a fundamental misunderstanding of economic growth—and austerity
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The End of American Exceptionalism
Oct 3, 2018
“We don’t look after each other at all,” says Jeffrey Sachs on America today
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Why Dodd-Frank Is a Shell Game for Banks
Sep 27, 2018
Ten years after the crisis, financial regulation leaves taxpayers holding the bag for banks’ safety net.
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Working Paper Series
Double Whammy: Implicit Subsidies and the Great Financial Crisis
Sep 2018
This paper concerns itself with the joint effect of implicit subsidies that are built into the US housing-finance system and financial safety net.
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The 2008 Global Financial Crisis as History - YSI Webinar series
YSI
Sep 25, 2018
“You never want a serious crisis to go to waste. …This crisis provides the opportunity for us to do things that you could not before.” This YSI Webinar and Reading Group aims to contribute to the historicization of the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 and its repercussions.
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A Better Bailout Was Possible
Sep 20, 2018
Back in 2008, a critical opportunity was missed when the burden of post-crisis adjustment was tilted heavily in favor of creditors relative to debtors. The result was not only prolonged stagnation, but also the Republican Party’s embrace of demagogic populism and the election of Donald Trump.
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Double Whammy: Implicit Subsidies and the Great Financial Crisis
Sep 15, 2018
A financial industry safety net enriches bankers and their shareholders — at our expense
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George Soros: 10 Years After the Crash
Sep 15, 2018
George Soros and Rob Johnson Discuss the Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Financial Crisis
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Under Trump, the Next Financial Catastrophe is Cooking
Sep 13, 2018
Ten years after Lehman Brothers’ collapse, the Wall Street casino is running amok
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The Economy’s Cuban Missile Crisis
Sep 12, 2018
In 2008 a global financial meltdown was just barely contained. But Adam Tooze says that the crisis of confidence has had long aftershocks
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Macroeconomics Predicted the Wrong Crisis
Sep 10, 2018
Distracted by the perceived threat of a Chinese savings glut, mainstream macroeconomists missed the writing on the wall of the 2008 crisis
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Mortgage Fraud Fueled the Financial Crisis—and Could Again
Sep 7, 2018
Both before 2008 and today, there’s a disturbing tendency in Washington to not take mortgage fraud seriously