Finance

We derive generalization error bounds — bounds on the expected inaccuracy of the predictions — for traditional time series forecasting models.

The European periphery is qualitatively dierent from the core.

Ireland has experienced a series of interlocking banking, fiscal, unemployment and political crises since 2007.

The Eurocrisis has many dimensions—bank solvency crisis, sovereign debt crisis, political unity crisis, and economic/unemployment crisis—but time after time it has been the liquidity crisis dimension driving events, and ECB response to the liquidity crisis driving institutional evolution. The reason is simple. Liquidity kills you quick.

Two Nobel laureates, an election, and a shaky economy. The message? We can do a whole lot better.

What do you get when you put two of the most well known and most widely cited economists in the world, both Nobel laureates, on stage together? A healthy dose of economic reality.

China released quarterly GDP figures this week. Wen Jiabao emphasized the parts of the release that pointed toward stabilization, and one can certainly find some logic to that view.

What makes a good model?

Everyone wants to ring-fence something, but they can’t agree on what: Vickers, Liikanen, Volcker.

Everyone wants to ring-fence something, but they can’t agree on what:

Recent empirical findings suggest that macroeconomic variables are seldom normally distributed.

Ambiguous private information leads to informational inefficiency of asset prices in rational expectations equilibrium.

Can economics be morally centered? And perhaps more importantly, should it be?

Last Thursday, the Fed announced its anticipated third round of balance-sheet expansion, at a fixed rate of about $40B per month “until [substantial] improvement [in unemployment] is achieved in a context of price stability”.

Would having more women in leadership have prevented the financial crisis?