Finance
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Financial Stability Working Group
Apr 5, 2013 | 08:30—10:45
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Conference paper
Poles Apart? Party Polarization and Industrial Structure in American Politics Now
Apr 2013
Only a few years ago, comparisons of American politics to opéra bouffe were not outrageously farfetched at least if you were not poor or sick.
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Conference paper
Austerity, Polarity and the Prospect of Regime Change: China
Apr 2013
Since the dawn of this millennium, and long before the current financial turmoil and the subsequent bitter pill of austerity therapy hit the Untied States and the European Union, the Chinese Communist Government has publicly recognized the monumental challenge of polarity.
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Austerity, Polarization, and the Prospect of Social Disorder
Apr 5, 2013 | 06:50—08:20
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Conference paper
Domestic Rebalancing to Reduce Global Imbalances: The Role of Financial Market Measures
Apr 2013
“Taking advantage of the opportunity offered by the structural adjustments of the global economy…”The decisions on the four modernisations taken at the Third Plenum represented a radical change in Chinese domesticdevelopment strategy.
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Conference paper
Meritocracy Is a Good Thing
Apr 2013
Political meritocracy is the idea that a political system is designed with the aim of selecting political leaders with above average ability to make morally informed political judgments. That is, political meritocracy has two key components: (1) the political leaders have above average ability and virtue and (2) the selection mechanism is designed to choose such leaders.
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Conference paper
A Keynes-IKE Model of Currency Risk: A CVAR Investigation
Apr 2013
A core puzzle in Önancial economics is the inability of standard risk-premium models to account for excess returns in currency and other asset markets.
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China in the World: Growth, Adjustment and Integration
Apr 4, 2013 | 11:45—01:15
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The Imperfect Knowledge Economics (IKE) Approach to Modeling An Open World
Apr 4, 2013 | 09:50—10:30
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Conference paper
The Law-Finance Paradox
Apr 2013
The global financial crisis led to the rediscovery of ‘fundamental uncertainty’. Incorporating uncertainty into the analysis of financial markets alters our understanding of how these markets operate and expose the two-faced role of law in finance.
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Capitalism and the Rule of Law
Apr 4, 2013 | 02:30—04:30
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Conference paper
Rationality and the Meese and Rogoff Exchange-Rate-Disconnect Puzzle: Learning vs. Contingent Knowledge
Apr 2013
There is much anecdotal evidence in the popular media, backed up by survey research, that participants in currency markets pay close attention to fundamental economic variables in forming their forecasts of future exchange rates.
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Conference paper
The Contingent Expectations Hypothesis: Rationality and Contingent Knowledge in Macroeconomics and Finance Theory
Apr 2013
For macroeconomists, an individual is rational if she uses her understanding of the way the economy works in making decisions that do not conflict with her objectives.
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Conference paper
Rationality in the Present-Value Model of Stock Prices: Fundamentals, Psychology, and Structural Change
Apr 2013
The present-value model of stock prices is a workhorse in financial economics. The model relates today’s price of a stock (or a basket of stocks) to the market’s forecasts of next-period’s price and dividend, appropriately discounted.
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Conference paper
Forward-Rate Bias, Contingent Knowledge, and Risk: Evidence from Developed and Developing Countries
Apr 2013
In this paper, we examine one of the core puzzles in International Macroeconomics, the so-called “forward-discount anomaly.”