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Rob Johnson and Michael Sandel discuss the limits of rational choice

After re-iterating five well-known theorems about the properties of conditional expectations in stationary settings—such as providing unbiased minimum mean square error predictions despite in- complete information, and the law of iterated expectations—we clarify unpredictability and illustrate its prevalence empirically.

Tania Singer on the key importance of understanding preferences and behavioral change.

And how do they relate to our democratic institutions and institutional social relations?

Equality runs deeper than preference or policy fashion, rooted in human social instincts and reflected in outcomes across societies. It is time for economics and policy alike to reckon with how profoundly distribution shapes well-being and social stability.

“The “go-hard/go-early and no regrets” approach of the Australian states has been vindicated by the Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET), a nonpartisan, nonprofit organisation established in the wake of the 2009 global financial crash.” …. “We must be ready to accept renewed restrictions, targeted shutdowns and border closures. As the INET report clearly demonstrates, the failure to act is much more costly than any temporary measures, such as those used in South Australia last month.” — Dennis Atkins

In 2006, the Fed asked its macroeconometric model what would happen if house prices dropped by 20%. The model projected the past into the future and said: “Not much.” Well, the financial crisis proved it wrong.

The Marshall Lectures often provide thought provoking talks and one talk in particular spoke to me looking at the relationship between history and economics:

To celebrate the release of our new series “What Money Can’t Buy” join Harvard University Professor Michael Sandel and INET for a live conversation exploring the role of money and morals in today’s world.

Immanuel Ness critiques the belief that migration drives economic development, revealing how it often merely aids survival and perpetuates exploitation.

Efforts to erase race-conscious policies threaten broader equality initiatives.

Fed to the Rescue?

Most of us probably think of management consultancy as a technocratic function, helping companies fix internal problems in order to become more productive. But Institute for New Economic Thinking grantee Kimberley Chong thinks about it in a different way, by viewing management consultancy through the lens of cultural anthropology.

Paul Samuelson is well-known to have been a compulsive citer and for having a particular Whig program for the history of economics

Yuen Yuen Ang, political science professor at the University of Michigan and author of the book, China’s Gilded Age, argues that the US and China have more in common than we usually think and that it makes more sense to see the conflict as a clash of gilded ages instead of a clash of civilizations.