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This paper, which is prepared for the Inagural Conference of the Institute for New Economic Thinking in King’s College, Cambridge, 8-11 April 2010, questions the preeminence of theory over empirics in economics and argues that empirical econometrics needs to be given a more important and independent role in economic analysis, not only to have some confidence in the soundness of our empirical inferences, but to uncover empirical regularities that can serve as a basis for new economic thinking.

Exploiting three earthquakes in Italy as quasi-experiments, we analyse the response of homeowners’ consumption to transfers targeted to finance housing repair and reconstruction. To the extent that funds are made available up-front, these transfers are akin to loans, mainly affecting the liquidity of households’ wealth

We call attention to the class of models that serve as the foundation for the rational expectations hypothesis (REH). Models in this class rule out completely any structural change that cannot be fully anticipated with a probabilistic or other quantitative rule. REH models are abstractions of rational decision-making, but only in a hypothetical world in which participants can fully anticipate when and how they might revise their understanding of the process driving outcomes.

This research project proposes linking emission fees to actual temperatures, thereby helping to break the policy stalemate and reach agreement on an effective policy.

Unveiling the U.S. Prison System

Is America facing a retirement crisis?

Inflation, the euro crisis – for years there has been one worry hype after another. Yet fear frequently turns out to be wrong. We need a committee of wise men in charge of dealing with the real risks.

The Institute recently sponsored several panels at the Kiel Global Economic Symposium. In particular, the panel on Income Distribution and Mobility struck us as likely to be of especially wide interest. We are grateful for the participation of all the scholars on them and are pleased to present summaries of their presentations here.

There is a banking crisis. Again. Banking regulators were asleep at the switch. Again.

The Healthcare Policy Podcast

Japan is going to double its money supply, according to today’s front page of the Financial Times (5 April 2013), and a salient question might be what we should compare that to. It sounds like a lot, but is it?

INET’s Research Director Thomas Ferguson talks to Rob Johnson about the many ways in which money corrupts our politics, contributes to ever-greater inequality, and what can be done about it

Margaret Heffernan, a writer and former CEO, talks to Rob about her latest book, Uncharted: How to Map the Future Together, on the art of thinking about the future in the context of uncertainty

MIT Sloan Assistant Professor Emil Verner discusses his research into credit markets, and the role of economics in the rise of populism.

National security expert Sarah Chayes discusses her new book, On Corruption in America: and What Is at Stake. Chayes explores how corruption in U.S. state and society furthers and deepens inequality.