Working Papers
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Working Paper Series
From the EMS to the EMU and...to China
Nov 2019
This essay deals with the EMS experience and its failure, with the Maastricht Treaty, and with the interregnum leading to the formation of the EMU in 1999.
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Working Paper Series
Synthetic MMT: Old Line Keynesianism with an Expansionary Twist
Oct 2019
Policy hype but vintage fiscal economics from Godley, Lerner, and Keynes
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Working Paper Series
Big Tech Acquisitions and the Potential Competition Doctrine: The Case of Facebook
Oct 2019
How antitrust law is ill-equipped to address tech mergers
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Working Paper Series
American Gothic: How Chicago Economics Distorts “Consumer Welfare” in Antitrust
Jul 2019
The Chicago School has long used bankrupt assumptions to strangle antitrust policy.
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Working Paper Series
Firm-Level Political Risk: Measurement and Effects
Jul 2019
We adapt simple tools from computational linguistics to construct a new measure of political risk faced by individual US firms: the share of their quarterly earnings conference calls that they devote to political risks.
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Working Paper Series
Expansionary Austerity and Reverse Causality: A Critique of the Conventional Approach
Jul 2019
It was too good to be true: Another effort to vindicate austerity falls victim to flawed methodology.
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Working Paper Series
State Capacity and Demand for Identity: Evidence from Political Instability in Mali
Jun 2019
Frequent civil conflicts in African countries may erode national identity, thus highlighting a reason why civil conflict is costly for growth and development
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Report
Macroeconomic Management Meets the New Economy
May 2019
A report of the Commission on Global Economic Transformation’s subcommittee on Macroeconomics & Finance
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Working Paper Series
Demand-determined potential output: a revision and update of Okun’s original method
May 2019
Everyone is waking up to the fact that estimates of what is possible in the economy are way off: this paper explains why
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Working Paper Series
Antitrust and Economic History: The Historic Failure of the Chicago School of Antitrust
May 2019
This paper presents an historical analysis of the antitrust laws.
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Report
Technological Disruption in the Global Economy
Apr 2019
A report of the Commission on Global Economic Transformation’s subcommittee on Inequality, Technology, and the Future of Work
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Working Paper Series
Lost in Deflation
Apr 2019
Why Italy’s woes are a warning to the whole Eurozone
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Working Paper Series
Economic Consequences of the U.S. Convict Labor System
Mar 2019
Prisoners employed in manufacturing constitute 4.2% of total U.S. manufacturing employment in 2005; they produce cheap goods, creating labor demand shock.
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Working Paper Series
The Knightian Uncertainty Hypothesis: Unforeseeable Change and Muth’s Consistency Constraint in Modeling Aggregate Outcomes
Mar 2019
This paper introduces the Knightian Uncertainty Hypothesis (KUH), a new approach to macroeconomics and finance theory.
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Working Paper Series
New Evidence on the Portfolio Balance Approach to Currency Returns
Feb 2019
Asset markets are indispensable in harnessing society’s diverse views and insights about future business performance. But those views are shaped as much by emotion and crowd mentality as by rational expectations.