Research Papers

46

The Making of America’s Imbalances

Grantee paper | By Moritz Schularick and Paul Wachtel | Jun 2012

This paper tracks the development of sectoral saving and borrowing in the US economy over the past 50 years.

47

What’s Wrong with Economic Models?

Grantee paper | By Michael Woodford | Jun 2012

John Kay’s thought-provoking essay The Map is Not the Territory: An Essay on the State of Economics argues that economists have been led astray by excessive reliance on formal models derived from assumptions that bear too little similarity to the world we live in.

48

Principled Policymaking in an Uncertain World

Grantee paper | By Michael Woodford | Jun 2012

Revised text of a presentation at the Conference on Microfoundations for Modern Macroeconomics, Columbia University, November 2010. I would like to thank Amar Bhidé, Roman Frydman, and Andy Haldane for helpful comments, and the Institute for New Economic Thinking for research support.

49

Method to simultaneously determine stock, flow, and parameter values in large stock flow consistent models

Grantee paper | By Stephen Kinsella, Antoine Godin, and Gnanonobodom Tiou-Tagba Aliti | Jun 2012

Stock flow consistent macroeconomic models suffer from the lack of a coherent estimation method due to the complicated nature of the modeling process.

50

Income Distribution, Credit and Fiscal Policies in an Agent-Based Keynesian Model

Grantee paper | By Giovanni Dosi, Giorgio Fagiolo, Andrea Roventini, and Mauro Napoletano | Aug 2012

This work studies the interactions between income distribution and monetary and fiscal policies in terms of ensuing dynamics of macro variables (GDP growth, unemployment, etc.) on the grounds of an agent-based Keynesian model.

51

Are Women Really More Risk-Averse than Men?

Grantee paper | By Julie Nelson | Sep 2012

While a substantial literature in economics and finance has concluded that women are more risk averse than men, this conclusion merits reconsideration.

52

Is Dismissing the Precautionary Principle the Manly Thing to Do? Gender and the Economics of Climate Change

Grantee paper | By Julie Nelson | Sep 2012

Many public debates about climate change now focus on the economic “costs” of taking action.

53

Fat-Tail Distributions and Business-Cycle Models

Grantee paper | By Giorgio Fagiolo, Andrea Roventini, and Guido Ascari | Sep 2012

Recent empirical findings suggest that macroeconomic variables are seldom normally distributed.

54

Would Women Leaders Have Prevented the Global Financial Crisis? Implications for Teaching about Gender, Behavior, and Economics

Grantee paper | By Julie Nelson | Sep 2012

Would having more women in leadership have prevented the financial crisis?

55

Chartbook of Economic Inequality: 25 Countries 1911-2010

Grantee paper | By Tony Atkinson and Salvatore Morelli | Sep 2012

The purpose of this Chartbook is to present a summary of evidence about changes in economic inequality – primarily income, earnings, and wealth – for 25 countries covering a 100 year period from 1911 to 2010.

56

The Pricing Effects of Ambiguous Private Information

Grantee paper | By Scott Condie and Jayant V. Ganguli | Sep 2012

Ambiguous private information leads to informational inefficiency of asset prices in rational expectations equilibrium.

57

Poisoning the Well, or How Economic Theory Damages Moral Imagination

Grantee paper | By Julie Nelson | Oct 2012

Contemporary mainstream economics has widely “poisoned the well” from which people get their ideas about the relationship between economics and ethics.

58

Conventions and the European Periphery

Grantee paper | By Stephen Kinsella | Nov 2012

The European periphery is qualitatively dierent from the core.

59

Time Series Forecasting: Model Evaluation and Selection Using Nonparametric Risk Bounds

Grantee paper | By Daniel McDonald, Cosma Shalizi, and Mark Schervish | Nov 2012

We derive generalization error bounds — bounds on the expected inaccuracy of the predictions — for traditional time series forecasting models.

60

Modeling Moments of Crisis: The Case of Ireland

Grantee paper | By Stephen Kinsella and Gnanonobodom Tiou-Tagba Aliti | Nov 2012

Ireland has experienced a series of interlocking banking, fiscal, unemployment and political crises since 2007.

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Research Papers