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  1. Working Paper

    Working Paper

    Will the New European Fiscal Rules Raise the Debt-to-GDP Ratio? An Analysis of the Italian Case

    By Claudia Ciccone

    Nov 2025

    Investigations into the possible effects of the fiscal consolidations required under the new European fiscal rules on Italy’s debt-to-GDP ratio find that the new governance framework may lead to the pro-cyclical tightening, weaker growth and adverse debt dynamics that characterized earlier phases of EU fiscal governance.

  2. Working Paper

    Working Paper Series

    The Cyclically Adjusted Budget: History and Exegesis of a Fateful Estimate

    By ​Orsola Costantini

    Oct 2015

    This paper traces the evolution of the concept of the cyclically adjusted budget from the 1930s to the present.

  3. Working Paper

    Partnership Paper

    Is There a Debt-threshold Effect on Output Growth?

    By M. Hashem Pesaran

    Jul 2015

    This paper studies the long-run impact of public debt expansion on economic growth and investigates whether the debt-growth relation varies with the level of indebtedness.

  4. Working Paper

    Working paper

    Is There a Debt-threshold Effect on Output Growth?

    By M. Hashem Pesaran

    Jun 2015

    This paper studies the long-run impact of public debt expansion on economic growth and investigates whether the debt-growth relation varies with the level of indebtedness.