Our contribution is both theoretical and empirical. On the theoretical side, we develop tests for threshold effects in the context of dynamic heterogeneous panel data models with cross- sectionally dependent errors and illustrate, by means of Monte Carlo experiments, that they perform well in small samples. On the empirical side, using data on a sample of 40 countries (grouped into advanced and developing) over the 1965-2010 period, we find no evidence for a universally applicable threshold effect in the relationship between public debt and economic growth, once we account for the impact of global factors and their spillover effects. Regardless of the threshold, however, we find significant negative long-run effects of public debt build-up on output growth. Provided that public debt is on a downward trajectory, a country with a high level of debt can grow just as fast as its peers.
Working Paper
This paper studies the long-run impact of public debt expansion on economic growth and investigates whether the debt-growth relation varies with the level of indebtedness.
Working paper By
- Is-There-a-Debt-threshold-Effect-on-Output-Growth (pdf, 2.14 MB)
- C2 Single Equation Models • Single Variables
- C23 Panel Data Models • Spatio-temporal Models
- E6 Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
- E62 Fiscal Policy
- F3 International Finance
- F34 International Lending and Debt Problems
- H6 National Budget, Deficit, and Debt