Archive
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Conference Session
Capitalism and the Rule of Law
Apr 4, 2013 | 02:30—04:30
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Working Paper
Conference paperRationality and the Meese and Rogoff Exchange-Rate-Disconnect Puzzle: Learning vs. Contingent Knowledge
Apr 2013
There is much anecdotal evidence in the popular media, backed up by survey research, that participants in currency markets pay close attention to fundamental economic variables in forming their forecasts of future exchange rates.
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Working Paper
Conference paperThe Contingent Expectations Hypothesis: Rationality and Contingent Knowledge in Macroeconomics and Finance Theory
Apr 2013
For macroeconomists, an individual is rational if she uses her understanding of the way the economy works in making decisions that do not conflict with her objectives.
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Working Paper
Conference paperRationality in the Present-Value Model of Stock Prices: Fundamentals, Psychology, and Structural Change
Apr 2013
The present-value model of stock prices is a workhorse in financial economics. The model relates today’s price of a stock (or a basket of stocks) to the market’s forecasts of next-period’s price and dividend, appropriately discounted.
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Working Paper
Conference paperForward-Rate Bias, Contingent Knowledge, and Risk: Evidence from Developed and Developing Countries
Apr 2013
In this paper, we examine one of the core puzzles in International Macroeconomics, the so-called “forward-discount anomaly.”
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Working Paper
Conference paperThe Econometrics of Imperfect Knowledge Economics
Apr 2013
A core premise of contemporary economic models is that researchers can adequately specify in probabilistic terms how individuals alter the way they make decisions and how the processes underpinning market outcomes unfold over time.
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Working Paper
Conference paperExpectational coordination failures and Market outcomes’ volatility
Apr 2013
The first part of this text comes back on the standard economic viewpoint on expectational coordination, a viewpoint that the recent events have challenged.
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Working Paper
Conference paperThe State, the Market and the Rule of Law
Apr 2013
State and market are often depicted as distinct, even antagonistic. Markets appear as natural products of spontaneous ordering; states as leviathans that if left untamed will distort, if not destroy markets’ natural state.
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Working Paper
Conference paperEndogenising Uncertainty
Apr 2013
Uncertainty is an unavoidable feature of economic life, although we may cope with it sometimes by ignoring it. Institutions, conventions and behaviour are all conditioned by uncertainty, and they in turn condition uncertainty in a reflexive manner.
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Conference Session
Time and Expectations in Economic Analysis
Apr 4, 2013 | 08:45—09:45
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Working Paper
Conference paperAddressing the Crisis in the Euro Zone System
Apr 2013
The reason why the Euro zone crisis has dragged on for so long is that Europe’s leaders have focused too much on short-term measures to patch up the emergency of the moment, rather than formulating a comprehensive plan.
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Working Paper
Conference paperTowards a New Monetary Constitution in Europe: The Proposal of the German Council of Economic Experts (GCEE)
Apr 2013
After the announcement of Mario Draghi, the ECB president, to do “whatever it takes” to preserve the integrity of the European Monetary Union (EMU) in July 2012 and the establishment of the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) program in September 2012, the crisis of EMU is far from being resolved.
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Working Paper
Conference paperIs Mercantilism Doomed to fail? China, Germany, and Japan and The Exhaustion of Debtor Countries
Apr 2013
Mercantilism, Accumulation of Foreign Exchange Reserves, and RMB Internationalization
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Working Paper
Conference paperSurveillance, Regulation and Supervision -a solution for the euro?
Apr 2013
Regulation and supervision of banks and financial markets are now upgraded in the euro area. Surveillance of macroeconomic performance of all EU countries is also intensified.
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Working Paper
Conference paperIf Not Now, When? Financial Reform Must Not Await Another Crisis
Apr 2013
In the first ten chapters of our book, The Bankers’ New Clothes: What’s Wrong with Banking and What to Do about It, we discuss banking and the economics of funding as it applies to banks.