Research Papers
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Conference paper
$MeToo: The Economic Cost of Sexual Harassment
Jan 2018
To get justice, targets must show measurable harm: economists can help.
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Grantee paper
Empirical Research on the Revolving Door ‘Shadow Lobbyists’
Oct 2017
The US federal lobbying industry, based in Washington DC, is major focal point for political money and the exercise of influence, with expenditures peaking at approximately $2.5 billion per annum during the first Obama administration.
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Working Paper Series
Industrial Structure and Party Competition in an Age of Hunger Games: Donald Trump and the 2016 Presidential Election
Jan 2018
The U.S. presidential election of 2016 featured frontal challenges to the political establishments of both parties and perhaps the most shocking election upset in American history.
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Conference paper
Why central bank models failed and how to repair them
Oct 2017
The consensus that reigned in macroeconomics before the financial crisis has come under renewed attack.
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Conference paper
Why Observation of the Behaviour of Human Actors and How They Combine Within the Economy, is an Important Next Step.
Oct 2017
One might think of the satisfied consensus reigning in macroeconomics before the financial crisis (and still relatively entrenched) as evidence of “Groupthink” in a “Divided State”
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Conference paper
How a Flawed Structure is Hurting the Eurozone—Economically and Politically
Oct 2017
The wind appears to be back in the sails of the Eurozone economy ….
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Conference paper
A Fiscal Union. Is it likely? Would it be enough?
Oct 2017
The current crisis is the culmination of a process of integration that has profoundly changed the structure of each member state, their inter-relations and their power relations. One of its side effects was the rediscovery of the terms ‘centre’ and ‘periphery’ to analyse the economic situations of the European countries.
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Conference paper
Macroeconomic stabilization, monetary-fiscal interactions, and Europe’s monetary union
Oct 2017
The euro area has been experiencing a prolonged period of weak economic activity and very low inflation.
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Conference paper
Power or Economic Law?
Oct 2017
Some fresh reflections on ECB policy
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Conference paper
Veiling
Dec 2017
Veiling among Muslim women is modeled as a commitment mechanism that limits temptation to deviate from religious norms of behavior.
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Conference paper
Betting on Hitler – The Value of Political Connections in Nazi Germany
Oct 2017
This paper examines the value of connections between German industry and the Nazi movement in early 1933. Drawing on previously unused contemporary sources about management and supervisory board composition and stock returns, we find that one out of seven firms, and a large proportion of the biggest companies, had substantive links with the National Socialist German Workers’ Party. Firms supporting the Nazi movement experienced unusually high returns, outperforming unconnected ones by 5% to 8% between January and March 1933. These results are not driven by sectoral composition and are robust to alternative estimators and definitions of affiliation.
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Conference paper
The Value of Political Connections in Fascist Italy
Oct 2017
Stock Market Returns and Corporate Networks
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Conference paper
Notes on the Failure of the Weimar Republic
Oct 2017
“The Failure of Democracy” – “The weaknesses of Weimar” Do headlines such as these suggest that the whole architecture of the first German republic was wrong, that it was doomed right from the start, that the “collapse” was unavoidable?
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Conference paper
From the Prevailing Paradigm to the Qualitative Expectations Hypothesis
Oct 2017
In the paper that we present this afternoon, Soren Johansen, Anders Rahbek, Morten Tabor, and I introduce the Qualitative Expectations Hypothesis (QEH) as a new approach to modeling macroeconomic and financial outcomes.
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Conference paper
Imperfect Knowledge, Unpredictability and the Failures of Modern Macroeconomics
Oct 2017
After re-iterating five well-known theorems about the properties of conditional expectations in stationary settings—such as providing unbiased minimum mean square error predictions despite in- complete information, and the law of iterated expectations—we clarify unpredictability and illustrate its prevalence empirically.