Daniele Girardi is assistant professor of Economics at UMass Amherst. His main research interest is the application of explicit and credible research designs for the identification of causal effects in macroeconomics. He is applying this approach in two main research projects. The first investigates the long-run effects of aggregate demand dynamics. The second studies the effect of institutional/political factors on macroeconomic outcomes. He received his PhD in Economics from the University of Siena (Italy) in 2016, with a thesis on aggregate investment which was awarded the “Pierangelo Garegnani” Thesis Prize 2016.
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The prevailing wisdom that aggregate demand ‘shocks’ determine short-run cyclical fluctuations around a supply-determined equilibrium growth rate and an associated equilibrium unemployment rate (or NAIRU) has been called into question by various streams of literature in the last decades. Specifically, a recently revived literature on hysteresis finds significant persistence in the effects of recessions and negative aggregate demand shocks (Blanchard et al. 2015; Martin et al. 2015).
This paper aims to assess such tendency to return to a supply-determined potential output, independent of aggregate demand, after episodes of demand expansion.
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