The AI Bubble and the U.S. Economy: How Long Do “Hallucinations” Last?

This paper argues that (i) we have reached “peak GenAI” in terms of current Large Language Models (LLMs); scaling (building more data centers and using more chips) will not take us further to the goal of “Artificial General Intelligence” (AGI); returns are diminishing rapidly; (ii) the AI-LLM industry and the larger U.S. economy are experiencing a speculative bubble, which is about to burst.

By Servaas Storm

Video

The Invisible Economy

Understanding the forces shaping our digital future.

Featuring Rohinton Medhora

How women economists expand orientations and perspectives that can transform economics into a pluralistic, critically engaged, and socially responsive discipline.

By Mohsen Javdani

The Federal Reserve is experiencing something new in its history: sustained and sizable operating losses. These losses—currently running at more than $100 billion a year on an annualized basis—stem largely from the sharp rise in short-term interest rates, which has increased the interest the Fed pays on bank reserves while the income from its long-term securities portfolio remains comparatively low.

By William Bergman

How inflationary inertia, driven by distributional conflict, disrupts the economy’s path to an effective demand equilibrium.

By Nicholas M. Burotto

We typically view competition as a positive force that lowers prices, improves quality and service, and increases variety. However, competition can sometimes be toxic.

By Maurice Stucke

Kalecki challenged the structuralist view by pointing to the internal social class barriers to development, and the need to assure supplies of basic wage goods in order to avoid inflationary pressures that could derail the development process.

By Jan Toporowski

Jul 24, 2025

Webinars and Events

Monsoon School on Inequality 2025

The focus of this year’s monsoon school is on pluralistic approaches to research on inequality, bringing together perspectives from varied streams of economic thought. It will provide an interactive platform for advanced-level PhD students, postdoctoral researchers, and scholars affiliated with Indian research institutes to engage with diverse concepts, debates, and methodologies related to inequality.

Jul 14, 2025

Webinars and Events

The Political Economy of Ecological Change and Economic Security in the Global South

The urgency of the climate crisis cannot be overstated, particularly given its disproportionate impact on vulnerable communities in the Global South.

May 31, 2025

Webinars and Events

The End of Globalization? With Paul Krugman

Four months of the Trump presidency have already changed the world as we knew it. How did we get here? What consequences have the tariffs had and will have? How will U.S.-European trade relations evolve? What about the confrontation with China?

Apr 10, 2025

Webinars and Events

Trump, Tariffs, and the World Crisis

with THOMAS FERGUSON, RESEARCH DIRECTOR, INET

Mar 31, 2025

Webinars and Events

Framing World Interdependence

The conference, which is part of our Academy’s ‘Future of Humankind’ initiative, will provide a global forum of discussion to scholars engaged in analytically understanding the evolution of world dynamics as a process involving a plurality of mechanisms, viewpoints and intersecting trajectories.

Mar 17, 2025

Webinars and Events

Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience in Agriculture: Strategies for Sustainable Development in South Asia

The IFMR Graduate School of Business, Krea University, in collaboration with the Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET) and its Young Scholars Initiative (YSI) is organising a conference on Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience in Agriculture: Strategies for Sustainable Development in South Asia

YSI projects are collaboratively organized by members of the community to explore topics in new economic thinking. Projects may be held virtually (discussions, webinars, reading groups) or in person (workshops, pre-conferences). Learn more about YSI here

To view projects further into the future, visit the YSI website.