Moritz Schularick is a Fellow at the Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET) and professor of economics at the University of Bonn. He was previously a professor at the John F. Kennedy Institute of the Free University of Berlin, Germany, a visiting scholar at Cambridge University, and worked in the financial industry for several years. His current work focuses on credit cycles, the determinants of financial crises, and the international monetary system. Together with Niall Ferguson, he coined the term “Chimerica” to describe the intimate financial relations between the United States and China. Working at the crossroads of monetary and international economics as well as economic history, his contributions can be found in the American Economic Review, the Quarterly Journal of Economics, the Journal of Monetary Economics, the Journal of International Economics, the Journal of Economic History, and several other journals.
- Leader of Private Debt
- Leader of Finance and the Welfare of Nations: The View from Economic History
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This paper answers fundamental questions that have preoccupied modern economic thought since the 18th century.
This paper discusses what we have learned about the debt build-up in advanced societies over the past century. It shows that the extraordinary growth of aggregate debt in the past century was driven by the private sector.
This paper studies the role of credit in the business cycle, with a focus on private credit overhang.
Two separate narratives have emerged in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis. One interpretation speaks of private financial excess and the key role of the banking system in leveraging and deleveraging the economy. The other emphasizes the public sector balance sheet over the private and worries about the risks of lax fiscal policies. However, the two may interact in important and understudied ways.
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Two separate INET funded research articles are cited; first from Schularick, Jordà, & Taylor on leveraged bubbles followed by Bao, Hommes, & Makarewicz on bubble formation. “Since their inception, financial markets, and to a lesser extent some real markets, have been subject to bubbles. … More recently, stock prices, but also credit, real estate, commodities, bond markets, and famously, bitcoin, are all assets that have experienced bubble episodes. Regarding cryptocurrencies, many economists also defend a permanent bubble, their fundamental value being theoretically non-existent.” …. In fact, the presence of bubbles in the markets (financial and real) seems to stem from the persistent behavior of economic agents. Experimental studies, controlling exactly the actual value, showed that participants tended to set up a bubble-like operation, with price surges and collapses very similar to real economy situations, and in no way related to a change in the market.
Debt Talks Episode 6 | Who’s Afraid of European Banks?
with Martin Arnold, Elena Carletti and Richard Vague; moderated by Thomas Fricke and Moritz Schularick
Does the COVID recession still have the potential to turn into a broader financial meltdown?
Debt Talks Episode 5 | Developing Country Debt: What's Next?
with Sarah-Jayne Clifton, Mitu Gulati, and Philippa Sigl-Glöckner; moderated by Moritz Schularick
Can developing countries cope with high debt levels? How dire is the situation? Has the policy response been adequate? And what’s the situation in private external debt, and what should be done about private creditors? This edition of Debt Talks will discuss the situation in developing country debt during and after the COVID-19 pandemic.
Debt Talks Episode 4 | Do We Need a Debt Jubilee?
moderated by Moritz Schularick with Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Astra Taylor and Richard Vague
What is the current situation in private indebtedness in the U.S.? Recent ideas suggest that excessive levels of debt are an obstacle to a quick recovery and sustained economic growth.