Alan Taylor

Involvement

Alan M. Taylor is a Professor of Economics and Finance at the University of California, Davis.

He read mathematics at King’s College, Cambridge, and received his Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University. His research spans several areas including international economics, macroeconomics, finance, growth, development, and economic history.

He holds appointments as a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge, Massachusetts, and a Research Fellow of the Center for Economic Policy Research in London. In 2004 he was awarded a John Simon Guggenheim Memorial Fellowship. In 2009–10 he was named a Houblon-Norman/George Fellow at the Bank of England.

His publications include numerous articles in economics journals, essays on policy and commentary, edited volumes and the books Global Capital Markets: Integration, Crisis and Growth published by Cambridge University Press (with Maurice Obstfeld), and Straining at the Anchor: The Argentine Currency Board and the Search for Macroeconomic Stability, 1880–1935 published by The University of Chicago Press (with Gerardo della Paolera).

He has been a visitor/consultant/speaker at many public sector organizations including various Federal Reserve Banks, the IMF, World Bank, IDB, BIS, ECB, and the central banks of the UK, China, France, Netherlands, Italy, Switzerland, Austria, Korea, Croatia, Peru, Israel, and Argentina. In the private sector he has served as a Senior Advisor at Morgan Stanley and has been a visitor/consultant/speaker at various asset managers.

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By this expert

Zombies at Large? Corporate Debt Overhang and the Macroeconomy*

Paper Working Paper Series |

Swift reorganization or liquidation of insolvent businesses is the single best policy to deal with corporate debt booms.

The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015

Paper Conference paper | | Dec 2017

This paper answers fundamental questions that have preoccupied modern economic thought since the 18th century.

When Credit Bites Back: Leverage, Business Cycles and Crises

Paper Working Paper Series | | Oct 2015

This paper studies the role of credit in the business cycle, with a focus on private credit overhang.

Sovereigns versus Banks: Credit, Crises and Consequences

Paper Working Paper Series | | Feb 2014

Two separate narratives have emerged in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis. One interpretation speaks of private financial excess and the key role of the banking system in leveraging and deleveraging the economy. The other emphasizes the public sector balance sheet over the private and worries about the risks of lax fiscal policies. However, the two may interact in important and understudied ways.

Featuring this expert

Schularick, Taylor, & Jorda’s INET funded research is cited in Bloomberg on the most stable investments

News Mar 17, 2021

“The issue is important because it tends to conflict with a hugely influential study published in 2017, called The Rate of Return on Everything, by Oscar Jorda, Katharina Knoll, Dmitry Kuvshinov, Moritz Schularick, and Alan M. Taylor. This was a mightily ambitious piece of financial archaeology covering 17 countries, and it rendered the startling result that housing performed virtually as well as equities over time, but with much less volatility. The result held true for every country that Jorda and his colleagues examined.” — John Authers, Bloomberg

INET funded research articles are cited in The Conversation

News Feb 24, 2021

Two separate INET funded research articles are cited; first from Schularick, Jordà, & Taylor on leveraged bubbles followed by Bao, Hommes, & Makarewicz on bubble formation. “Since their inception, financial markets, and to a lesser extent some real markets, have been subject to bubbles. … More recently, stock prices, but also credit, real estate, commodities, bond markets, and famously, bitcoin, are all assets that have experienced bubble episodes. Regarding cryptocurrencies, many economists also defend a permanent bubble, their fundamental value being theoretically non-existent.” …. In fact, the presence of bubbles in the markets (financial and real) seems to stem from the persistent behavior of economic agents. Experimental studies, controlling exactly the actual value, showed that participants tended to set up a bubble-like operation, with price surges and collapses very similar to real economy situations, and in no way related to a change in the market.

NextGen

Private Debt Initiative

Event Conference | Hosted by Private Debt | Jun 20–21, 2019

Shaped by the 2008 financial crisis, a new generation of economists is expanding the boundaries of economic thinking on credit cycles, private debt, and financial stability.

Is Slow Growth the “New Normal”?

If So, What Are the Policy Solutions?

Event Conference | Hosted by Secular Stagnation | Dec 15, 2017

Distinguished Scholars Including Larry Summers and Adair Turner Present Evidence of the Trend and Policy Solutions